Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Rocket Mortgage Classic  

Rocket Mortgage Classic Fantasy Preview

We’d written last week when drafting Tom Kim that he looked primed to win. And maybe he would have at the Travelers Champion….but for that man Scottie Scheffler.

Kim led from round one until around six holes to play on Sunday, when the irrepressible Scheffler’s birdie power saw him catapult into contention at a time when five players shared the lead.

The world number one came agonizingly close to winning the tournament on the 72nd hole, but his birdie putt came up short, Kim nailed his, and it was off to a playoff we went.

And then….well. Both players landed comfortably in the fairway, but while Scheffler hit his approach to around 15ft, Kim somehow duffed his lob wedge into a bunker – and got a fried egg lie for his troubles.

Then it was inevitable: Scheffler two-putted to win his sixth PGA TOUR title in 2024 in a season that is fast becoming one of the best in the sport’s history. Only three players have won six times in a season in the past 40 years, and Scheffler still has months to streak past Tiger, Nick Price, and Vijay Singh in that unique category.

As for poor old Tom, it’s off to Detroit he goes – will he jump right back in the saddle, or show signs of battle fatigue that can come with such a tough loss?

After a buffet of majors and Signature Events in recent weeks, the TOUR takes something of an about-turn at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a tournament sadly hurt by its position in the schedule and the weak field that brings.

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Last Week’s Results

Over all, we finished the week with five Top-10’s including our best finish of Tom Hoge as our mid-tier pick along with Tom Kim (2nd) on our Sleeper Report.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Field

It’s hard for the Rocket Mortgage Classic organizers to attract a star-studded field to Detroit, but at least they will have a handful of household names to lean on – not least Rickie Fowler, who downed Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin here 12 months ago for a memorable title win.

Tom Kim, Akshay Bhatia, and Cameron Young all impressed at the Travelers Championship, as did Will Zalatoris in his opening round, while young Michael Thorbjornsen – who earned an exemption into that Signature Event – gets another chance to show off his burgeoning talents this week.

We have two more former Rocket Mortgage Classic champions in the field – Cam Davis (2021) and Nate Lashley (2019), while the in-form Taylor Pendrith, since a winner at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, was T2 here back in 2022.

There’s a multitude of winners on the TOUR this year – Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Robert McIntyre, Peter Malnati, Nick Dunlap, Chris Gotterup, and Davis Riley – who will all be looking to double up this week.

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This Week’s Course Preview

With winning scores at Detroit Golf Club of -24, -26, -18, -23, and -25 in the past five years, you already get a feeling of how this course plays.

It’s easy, with few hazards to speak of – this is not one of Donald Ross’s more challenging pieces of golf real estate.

Measuring 7,370 yards for its Par 72, Detroit GC is almost perfectly flat and has no meaningful water hazards to trouble the players, with the 85+ bunkers also easy to avoid (or play from).

Some of the holes feature dense tree lines, which can see some players clubbing down to prevent losing a sight-line into the green, but for the most part there’s no real danger off the tee.

The greens are of an average size and of a Bentgrass/Poa mix, although some reports suggest that the Poa has begun to become the dominant grass strain of the two.

In 2023, 12 of the 18 holes averaged under par, with the Par 5 seventh and seventeenth playing as two of the easiest holes you’re ever likely to see on the PGA TOUR. There’s four Par 5s and four Par 4s measuring less than 400 yards, which is where the majority of the scoring will be done.

Two of the Par 3s, nine and eleven, were challenging enough at over 200 yards, while the Par 4 sixth was the toughest hole – a somewhat doglegging 461-yard hole with an awkward tee shot to be navigated.

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Weather Forecast for Detroit, MI

Aside from the possibility of a thunderstorm or two on Saturday, things are looking reasonably good in Detroit this week.

We’re expecting warm temperatures throughout, with the mercury ranging between 73 and 84 degrees, and mostly sunny spells.

The wind could creep up to 15mph by the weekend, however, and watch out for those storms on Saturday – maybe the predictions will change and they’ll pass by without affecting the action.

DETROIT WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Rocket Mortgage Classic

There was barely a dry eye in the house in Detroit 12 months ago when Rickie Fowler ended his four-year wait for a PGA TOUR title.

All of the emotions tumbled out of him at the end – joy and relief being the two most prominent, and it was a real feather in his cap to down one of the best players in the world in Collin Morikawa via a playoff.

A second round of 65 had propelled Fowler into the mix, with the Taylors Pendrith and Moore leading the way at the halfway stage.

A third round of 64 took Fowler one clear of Adam Hadwin after 54 holes, although with ten players within four shots of the lead, the scene was set for a topsy-turvy Sunday.

And so it proved. Fowler did little wrong in a bogey-free 68, but on a low-scoring day the door was left ajar – Hadwin took the chance, and so did Morikawa; he made eight birdies in a faultless round.

It was off to a playoff they went, and Fowler would not be denied – an outstanding approach shot setting up a birdie three at the eighteenth that neither of his rivals could match.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic

Finally, a full field of players and a traditional cut line at halfway! The Rocket Mortgage Classic hasn’t been the easiest nut to crack from a DFS perspective over the years, but with a weak field at an easy course there could be opportunities to exploit:

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green – It’s the go-to contest for those looking to spend circa $5 per entry, but there’s so much upside here with a $50k top prize and 135 teams winning $100 or more.
• GOLF TOUR $40k Full Round Special – For $10 a turn, we can enter this 4,705 team contest in which the jackpot is $4k, and in which there’s a host of other decent payouts – the top 29 teams score $100 or more.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

These events played at such easy courses can be tough to handicap, because we know that a fine week with the putter will be a defining factor – that’s always difficult to model.

But it would also be true to say that the key protagonists in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which was first played at Detroit Golf Club in 2019, share some common traits that can help in our draft.

The winners have been Fowler, Tony Finau, Cam Davis, Bryson DeChambeau, and Nate Lashley, which tells us that quality off the tee – straight length from Fowler and Finau, bombs from Davis and DeChambeau, and accuracy from Lashley – is key to setting up crucial second shots at a venue where birdies are non-negotiable.

A lack at the runner-up column also provides us with Morikawa, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, Joaquin Niemann, and Matthew Wolff – all, at the time, were high-class off the tee.

So that’s the main attribute we’re hanging our hat on this week, in addition to some strong form from tee-to-green and putting of late.

Par 5 scoring will also be a difference-maker, while favorite correlating events include the Phoenix Open (Fowler won, Finau and Cantlay lost in a playoff), Memorial Tournament (Cantlay and DeChambeau won, Fowler lost in a playoff), and the Shriners (Cantlay and DeChambeau won, Wolff lost in a playoff).

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Rocket Mortgage Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Rocket Mortgage Classic  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 62.7, Salary: $9,600)

That winning feeling is still fresh in the memory of Taylor Pendrith, who can parlay victory at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson into another title challenge in Detroit.

Pendrith himself has confirmed that he loves it at this track, calling it a ‘home game’ due to the support he got in Detroit on his way to a T2 turn here in 2022.

T16 at the U.S. Open, the good times keep rolling for the Canadian, and crucially he is putting extremely well right now – how vital could that prove in what is typically a birdie shootout?

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 4th
• Driving Distance – 15th
• Birdie Average – 27th

Top Tier Pick #2

Stephan Jaeger (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 67.9, Salary: $9,400)

With an excellent record at Detroit GC, Stephan Jaeger’s return to form at the Travelers Championship was timely.

Okay, so T31 doesn’t scream man in form, but his ball-striking was much better – and that has become his trademark.

With finishes of solo fifth and T9 in this event, the German knows what it takes to perform well at Detroit GC – his long, straight driving and excellent wedge play key to unlocking the layout’s eight most scoreable holes.

A winner on TOUR this year, that could count for plenty in this weak company.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 22nd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 27th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 43rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Keith Mitchell (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 72.2, Salary: $8,500)

One of the things that the headline players share of late is that they’ve played a lot of high-pressure golf lately in majors and Signature Events.

In rhythm? Absolutely, but fatigue can also be a factor – especially in the relentless hunt for birdies at Detroit GC.

Keith Mitchell has put his feet up since the Canadian Open, so he heads to Detroit well rested and ready to go.

He was in decent touch in Canada, finishing T10, while solid results at the correlating Phoenix Open and Memorial Tournament indicate that an in-form Mitchell should take to Detroit GC.

As a long and high-class ball striker with that bit of extra quality about his game, Mitchell fits the bill as a Rocket Mortgage Classic contender.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• Birdie Average – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Adam Svensson (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 53.8, Salary: $7,600)

It’s a sea of green for Adam Svensson in terms of his tee-to-green game of late.

Green is the color used by DataGolf to denote strokes gained on the field, and the Canadian has achieved that feat in six of his last seven PGA TOUR outings from tee to green.

Unfortunately, red has been the dominant color in his putting category – however, +0.51 at the Travelers on similar Bentgrass/Poa greens to Detroit GC is a welcome turn of events.

Middle rounds of 63 and 64 at TPC River Highlands reveal that Svensson’s game is in a good place right now, and previous form at the Shriners at least offers a hint that better is to come at Detroit GC, too.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 32nd
• SG: Approach – 35th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 44th

Low-Tier Pick

Lee Hodges (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 55.2, Salary: $7,100)

The history books at Detroit GC teach us that quality drivers tend to fare well here – consistently hitting the fairway is key to setting up the requisite number of birdie looks.

Lee Hodges fits the bill. He’s not long by any means, but he’s a reliable fairway finder and that lays the foundation for his stellar approach play.

He’s gained strokes on the field on approach in each of his last five starts, and that includes a mammoth +2.18 against a stellar cast at the PGA Championship.

Form at the correlating Memorial Tournament is eye catching, as is the fact he won a birdie shootout at the 3M Open roughly a year ago.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 29th
• SG: Approach – 34th
• Total Birdies – 62nd

Sleeper Pick for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Adam Schenk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 56.1, Salary: $6,800)

Although his overall formline has been poor of late, that has been caused by a leaky spell of the tee – unlike Adam Schenk.

So it was good to see that he arrested that at the Travelers Championship with a much stronger showing with driver in hand, which should imbibe him with confidence ahead of the switch to Detroit GC.

A final round of 64 in Connecticut, solo seventh in this event 12 months ago, and form at the correlating Memorial Tournament, Phoenix Open, and Shriners Open all set the scene nicely for Schenk this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 14th
• Total Driving – 32nd
• Putts Per Round – 62nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Joel Dahmen (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 56.0, Salary: $6,100)

Another with intriguing form heading to Detroit is Joel Dahmen.

A reliable fairway finder with class on approach, not all PGA TOUR venues are to Dahmen’s liking due to his lack of length – but when they are, he has a habit of making it count.

T7 at the correlating Shriners, T11 at the PLAYERS, and T10 at the Canadian Open last time out are evidence of his upside, and in a tournament in which finding fairways from which to launch precise approaches is key, Dahmen is of interest.

As important, he’s delivered two very positive putting performances within his last three starts – if the flatstick starts working, Dahmen is a dangerous customer indeed.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 24th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 41st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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