Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Safeway Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Safeway Open

Safeway Open Fantasy Preview

It’s amazing how things in golf pan out.

Barely two weeks ago, Joaquin Niemann was claiming his maiden PGA TOUR title at A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier.

The Chilean’s best friends on Tour? Sebastian Munoz and Carlos Ortiz, with whom he shares Central/South American heritage.

Should we have really been surprised when that duo were battling it out for glory on Sunday at the Sanderson Farms Championship?

Perhaps the quest for President’s Cup places is even more inspirational, as Sungjae Im and Byeong Hun An were also in the mix for honors in Jackson, Mississippi.

In the end, it was Munoz and Im who fought their way into a play-off, and it was the Colombian who would prevail after making par at the first extra hole.

So, two weeks into the new season and we have a pair of maiden winners. Will it be a hat-trick in Napa Valley this week at the Safeway Open?

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

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Two weeks in, two winners picked!  JUST LIKE THAT.

Not only did we have Munoz as our Top Mid-Tier pick, we also had the runner-up playoff finisher Sungjae Im as our top pick of the week. Together with the 1-2 punch sprinkled in with other T11 finishes from Harman and Griffin, and you should have ended up cashing in nicely this week!  

Here’s the sample roster we put out last week:

With the win, we have now successfully jumped out of the 2019-2020 gate 2-for-2 with winners picked and we have no plans to stop there. We’re just heating up folks!

The Safeway Open Field

As the PGA TOUR swings over to the West Coast, it’s no great surprise that those who enjoy life in California dust off their clubs and get to work.

So, we can enjoy the likes of Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott and Francesco Molinari at the Silverado resort, while perennial Cali favorite Phil Mickelson also makes the trip.

There’s a high0quality supporting cast too, with the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman and Hideki Matsuyama also teeing up, while Munoz, Ortiz, Im and An will all look to move one step closer to President’s Cup selection with another fine showing here.

At the other end of the age scale, spectators can also look forward to a glimpse of Fred Couples, John Daly and Bo Van Pelt, who marks his first PGA TOUR start in quite some time.

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This Week’s Course Preview

While there has been something of a party atmosphere these past couple of weeks at golf courses where there was very little difficulty, the ethos is likely to change at Silverado Resort this week.

Don’t get us wrong: this layout won’t be hosting an edition of the US Open any time soon, but it is more challenging than the Old White and the Country Club of Jackson.

The reason for that falls firmly at the door of architect Robert Trent-Jones, who gave this layout a workover in the 1960s, before the legendary Johnny Miller got his hands on it in the 90s.

Measuring 7,166 yards for its Par 72, the North Course at Silverado is built into the Napa Valley but retains a lush, parklands feel.

As this is West Cost golf, there is a switch to the Poa Annua greens that are native to this part of the country, and this could well be a key angle of attack for gamers this week.

There are some tough lines to find off the tee, with narrow fairways in places hemmed by trees, while thick-ish rough, some well-stationed water hazards and deep bunkers also add some complexity into the mix.

The greens are fairly well protected, but these run quite slowly on the stimp so those who are less confident with putter in hand will at least not be as disadvantaged as they were in Jackson last week.

If you follow your picks in play, Silverado has a notable closing run of holes. The fifteenth is the toughest on the real estate, and this is a 189-yard Par 3 where the green cannot be missed as the recovery options are less than ideal.

But, navigate that, and 16-18 is one of the comfiest closing trios on the PGA TOUR. Both 16 and 18 are Par 5s that can be attacked in two by most in the field, while 17 is a 375-yard Par 4 that rewards long, accurate drives with the simplest of wedges in.

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Weather Forecast for Napa, CA

There’s plenty of sunshine around in Napa at this time of year, and that theme continues this week for perfect golf conditions.

Indeed, there’s not a lot else to report: sun and thin cloud is the order of the day, with temperatures in the heady 71-84°F bracket.

The only thing for gamers to note is the wind, which will be blowing at a constant 12-14mph throughout the four days of action. That could well prove to be a factor on some of the more exposed holes.

Last Year’s Results from the Safeway Open

For about 75% of the 2018 Safeway Open, it looked as if Brandt Snedeker was going to add to his haul of PGA TOUR titles.

He held the 36 and 54-hole leads, with a three-shot cushion heading into Sunday’s final round.

But trouble would soon come, and he made three straight bogeys on the back nine to see his lead slip away in a made half-hour.

Snedeker ended up posting a round of 74, and that was just about enough to see him into a play-off with Kevin Tway and Ryan Moore, who birdied three of the final four holes in regulation play to force himself into the reckoning.

The first extra hole saw Snedeker eliminated – clearly affected by his troubles on the back nine, before the second play-off hole was shared by Tway and Moore.

But a birdie three at the tenth saw Tway lift his first PGA TOUR title, and that was the springboard that saw him finish 32nd on the FedExCup leaderboard.

Highlights | Round 4 | Safeway 2018

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Safeway Open, Kevin Tway jumped up the leaderboard and survived three playoff holes to earn his first career victory on the PGA TOUR. PGA TOUR’s 2018-19 season tees off with the Safeway Open returning to Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa, California.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Safeway Open this Week

As we enter the meatier tournaments early on in the new campaign, now is the time to start building that bankroll with some sensible choices when it comes to contests entered.

• PGA $100k Club Twirl: There could be further layovers on the PGA TOUR this week with the European Tour hosting another star-studded event. So make your advantage count in this $44 contest, where the winner will pocket a cool $20k.
• PGA $250k Best Ball: There may well be 37,000 contestants in this event, but the payout pyramid is fair and, hey, the winner grabs $50k. What’s not to like!?  

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Safeway Open

Silverado is one of those golf courses where we expect the classic shot-makers to flourish.

Brendan Steele is a back-to-back winner here, and at his very best he is capable of some outstanding tee-to-green play. Emiliano Grillo, the 2015 champion, is another noted for his flushing capabilities.

Moore, Snedeker, Finau, Na, Singh, Fowler….these are all runners-up at Silverado who can also be categorized as tee-to-green merchants at their best.

And so really that is the main angle of attack here, where we will be drafting really solid players from the tee box to the green. Then, if they catch light with the flat stick then they have an excellent chance of going well.

The last four winners here – Tway, Steele, Grillo and Bae – share another common attribute: long, straight driving. Now that helps at any golf course on the planet, but for four fairly ‘surprise’ champions that is an interesting trait to share.

Otherwise we’re looking at Poa Annua form, comfort on this surface and on the West Coast in general, and players who are comfortable in the wind given the local forecast. Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders is also of relevance given that is where the bulk of the damage will be done at Silverado.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Safeway Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Safeway Open

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: NA, GPFP: NA Salary: $11,200)

He may have had a tough time of things in the TOUR Championship, but back on the West Coast it’s fair to say that Patrick Cantlay will feel right at home.

The UCLA grad finished T17 here last year and T9 at the Desert Classic, and of course his maiden PGA TOUR title came in the Western quarter of the country at the Shriners in Nevada.

Courses like Silverado play perfectly into the hands of the likes of Cantlay, who is a noted tee-to-green crusher, and if he has had a good time on the range during the off-season then he is an obvious contender this week.

Form isn’t far away either, given that he was solo second at the BMW Championship and T12 at the Northern Trust.

Key Stats (2018-19):

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 17th
• SG: Putting – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Byeong Hun An (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 74.9, GPFP: 74.88 Salary: $9,500)

If asked to draw up a profile of Byeong Hun An, most in the know would write that he’s a phenom from tee-to-green that can’t putt for toffee.

And they’d be right, too. Based on his 2018/19 season stats, the Korean ranked 7th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 182nd for SG: Putting. Go figure.

But something has clicked for An of late, and while not at his absolute best from tee-to-green in these early stages of the new season, his putting has been transformed.

And, when you factor that into his general brilliance with irons and wedges in hand, it should prove to be a deadly pairing.

With a President’s Cup place up for the taking, An has started the new campaign like a train, and at a layout where he can excel he is worth every cent of his salary.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 34th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 35th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 64th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Kevin Streelman (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 84.70 Salary: $8,300)

When an iron-game flusher shows some life with the flat stick, it’s usually instructive of good thing to come.

Kevin Streelman was incredible on Sunday in Jackson. He gained +2.56 strokes on the field from tee-to-green and a whopping +3.71 on the greens as he found his groove.

So the last competitive golfing vibes for the 40-year-old are very positive ones, and there’s no reason why he can’t carry that form into this week’s event as well.

This is a course that suits his eye, as 25-13 in his last two trips attests. Last year, he ranked sixth for SG: Tee-to-Green here and absolutely nowhere for putting. Given his recent transformation, perhaps Streelman will have the game to contend at Silverado.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 6th
• Total Driving – 18th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 30th

Mid-Tier Pick #3: 

Cameron Tringale (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 77.3, GPFP: 91.93 Salary: $7,200)

The Californian has been trending nicely for a good couple of months now, and ahead of a return to home soil that is eye-catching indeed.

That good form was consolidated with a T5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and top-20s at the John Deere Classic and last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship complete the picture.

Tringale is a really talented sort that has never really fulfilled his promise; 21 top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR is an indicator of what he is truly capable of.

Who knows, maybe the third maiden champion in a row this season will be a veritable veteran?

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 37th
• SG: Putting – 59th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 61st

Low-Tier Pick: 

Adam Long (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 92.0, GPFP: 73.60 Salary: $6,900)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green = 2nd. Strokes Gained: Putting = 124th.

It’s fair to say that Adam Long is one of a few players who will appreciate the move away from a putting shootout to more refined fare this week.

That said, he actually putted quite well in Jackson last week, gaining strokes on the field on his way to a T23 finish.

So he’s trending well with a T14 at the Greenbrier also in the rear-view mirror, and lest we forget that his sole PGA TOUR title to date came at last season’s Desert Classic, which was also played in California.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• Birdie Average – 9th
• SG: Total – 15th

Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Carlos Ortiz (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 66.5, GPFP: 84.46 Salary: $7,500)

We’ve already written about the qualities that Carlos Ortiz showed at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and for a player inspired by his close friends winning – and the outside chance of a President’s Cup place – that is handy indeed.

A strong driver of the ball, the Mexican also putted quite well in Mississippi, and that’s a heady mix if it travels to Silverado, where short irons and wedges are the order of the day.

It’s been something of a journeyman career until this point for the 28-year-old, who has won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour. But right now, Ortiz is arguably playing the best golf of his life.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 9th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 30th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 55th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Tom Hoge (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 95.0, GPFP: 76.00 Salary: $7,100)

The 30-year-old can be particularly pleased with his start to the new season, especially given that the two tracks played so far have not suited his natural game.

Silverado is much more up his alley, evidenced by his T17 here last year, and we’re surprised to see Hoge available at such a low salary.

It’s early days but he ranks very nicely for the Strokes Gained metrics we have recommended as important this week, and the big man has even found some much-needed deftness with the flat stick too.

His solo second at the Greenbrier was no fluke, with his T39 in Jackson highlighted by an opening round of 64, so let’s take a chance on Hoge outperforming his salary here and as a low-owed ‘unfashionable’ player into the bargain.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th
• SG: Putting – 38th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”21.42%” bar_text=”3 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.42%” bar_text=”3 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”35.71%” bar_text=”5 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=” out of 2 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”50%” bar_text=”1 out of 2 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”64.28%” bar_text=”9 out of 14 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram