Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Travelers Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship Fantasy Preview
When it comes to shortlisting players for our DFS drafts and our bets, most of us use Strokes Gained data as a basis for our selections.
But of course, the raw stats don’t always provide the information that ultimately defines who will win a golf tournament – as proven by Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage.
A missed cut at Colonial was enough to put most off the scent, and even at the Harbour Town Links his lofty position on the leaderboard appeared in jeopardy – on Friday, for example, he lost 2.13 strokes from tee-to-green, gaining a ridiculous +6.01 with the putter.
But that isn’t sustainable over 72 holes, is it?
Later on Sunday, Simpson would speak about the significance of Father’s Day, or thinking about his own dad who has passed away and of his own parenting for his children, of being a role model and of making them proud.
And there’s no Strokes Gained category for that….
With four holes to play on a chaotic Sunday hampered by thunderstorms, four players were tied at the top of the leaderboard. But Simpson, charged by his emotions on the day, birdied five of the last seven holes to clinch his first win on a favorite stomping ground and his second PGA TOUR victory in his last four starts.
The new FedExCup leader will be looking to make it a hat-trick as the Tour moves on Cromwell, Connecticut for this week’s Travelers Championship.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our picks came in with 6 out of 7 made cuts with two Top 10 finishes including Tyrrell Hatton (T3) and JT Poston (T8). Our top pick last week was Justin Rose, who ended the week T14.
Our four Top 25 finishes from last week puts us at 30% on the season out of 154 players picked over 22 events (7 per event).
2020 Travelers Championship Field
If all goes as planned, we could be in for a heavyweight battle on Sunday with Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau all looking to get their first win of the ‘new’ season.
Webb Simpson is looking for a third title in his last five appearances on Tour, while the return to a semblance of form from the likes of Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose has not gone unnoticed.
Patrick Cantlay makes his first start since March, while Phil Mickelson makes his tournament debut as a 50-year-old in an event he won twice in a row two decades ago.
There is a fantastic supporting cast too, so defending champion Chez Reavie and three-time TPC River Highlands winner Bubba Watson will have their work cut out adding to their trophy collection.
This Week’s Course Preview
In benign conditions last week, the field was able to make hay on a Pete Dye designed course at Harbour Town, and they will be hoping to do likewise this time out in another track with the Dye DNA in its make-up.
Okay, so the legendary designer wasn’t directly responsible for TPC River Highlands – that honor fell to Robert Ross, but Dye did provide a fairly comprehensive overhaul in 1982.
But with the foundations already laid, he couldn’t reproduce the typically devilish characteristics he is known for, and so the primary defense of this layout is the wind. If conditions are favorable, incredible feats are possible at TPC River Highlands – Jim Furyk shot a round of 58 here back in 2016, remember.
It’s not fair or correct to call this layout ‘average’, but it does have an average profile – average-sized fairways, average tree coverage and average-sized Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend greens, which run at an average 11 or so on the stimpmeter.
Water is only in play on four holes, although three of those form the ‘Golden Triangle’ of 15 through 17, which play adjacent to or around a giant lake.
Measuring 6,841 yards for its Par 70, TPC River Highlands is short enough that anyone can thrive, and as the history books show there are scores to be made here by accurate types with an eye for a birdie on the 12 Par 4 holes – there are just two Par 5s to play with.
Weather Forecast for Cromwell, CT
The early forecast suggests an air of unpredictability, and so we would urge you to keep an eye on up-to-the-minute predictions prior to making your draft.
There’s sunshine and cloud that forms the basis for the week’s weather, with temperatures pretty settled around the 87°F mark throughout.
But there is rain around – Wednesday and Sunday appear to be the most likely days according to the forecast, while the wind speeds range from a fair 6 mph up to a breezy 13 mph.
Last Year’s Results for Travelers Championship
A phenomenal opening three rounds from Chez Reavie were ultimately enough for him to snap an eleven-year title drought on the PGA TOUR.
Opening up 65-66-63, the pint-sized putter raced into the lead and never looked like losing his supremacy on Sunday, parring 15 holes to wrap up a comfy four-shot win over Zach Sucher, who produced the performance of a lifetime to finish T2 with Keegan Bradley.
Paul Casey, Vaughn Taylor, Joaquin Niemann and Kevin Tway rounded out the top-five, while a pre-muscled Bryson DeChambeau ended up T8.
Highlights | Round 4 | Travelers 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Travelers Championship this Week
We’re back underway and into the meat of the 2020 PGA TOUR season, and the great news is that the slate of DFS contests shows no signs of taking a step backwards.
- PGA $2.5 Millionaire: DraftKings isn’t doing things by half at the moment, and once again the Millionaire contest will be rolled out. So, for $20, you’ll have a chance to take home the milly or at least win a handsome consolation prize – the top 40 players win at least $1,000.
- PGA $50k Caddie: When there are events that are slightly harder to profile than others, we tend to like throwing a few darts at single entry events – we believe that strong research can be a real advantage maker in these contests. In this $50k Caddie, you’ll get one line-up for your $5, but you can win a top prize of $5k from a field size of 11,800 people.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Travelers Championship
The history books for the Travelers Championship are littered with short hitters who are able to grind out winning scores with relentless accuracy.
Reavie has been joined in the winners’ circle at TPC River Highlands by the likes of Russell Knox, Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke and Stewart Cink, with Jerry Kelly, KJ Choi and David Toms former runners-up.
But just when you thought you had this layout wrapped up, you note that Bubba Watson has won three times here and Phil Mickelson twice – not accurate plodders by any measure!
So there does seem to be two profiles of player to look for – accurate ball strikers and bombers who are able to scramble like hell and hole some putts. For the large part, the former strategy is arguably the most valuable play.
We’re looking for players who can make birdies on Par 4s consistently too, and one interesting angle could be soft greens – if the sun bakes Bentgrass it can soften, and the rain (should it arrive) will also enhance that idea. In that case, backing those who can hit darts at the flag with iron in hand might be the clever option.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win Travelers Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win Travelers Championship
Top Tier Pick:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 81.8, GPFP: 65.46 Salary: $11,000)
Watching the coverage of the RBC Heritage, it was evident that some big players were rounding up to form.
Brooks Koepka, on Sunday in particular, started to stripe the ball and he will surely be a contender in the coming weeks. Dustin Johnson, while not at his best, also showed signs of life.
Both were tempting, but it’s the consistency of Bryson DeChambeau that has just won the day for our headline pick.
Much has been made of his incredible power off the tee since he bulked up, and in the coming weeks as more open courses are on hosting duty we will see the full fruits of his labor.
But to write Bryson off as a mere bomber is foolhardy, because he is an outstanding iron player who could really thrive on soft greens this week.
The mad scientist has banked back-to-back top-10s at TPC River Highlands, and in his last three starts he has ranked inside the top-10 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
It seems a question of when, not if, Bryson will win soon, and his approach play at Harbour Town was so good you suspect it is a smart idea to get him onside this week.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
- Putting Inside 10ft – 8th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 76.7, GPFP: 61.34 Salary: $9,000)
Playing the golf of his life right now, it could be a case of now-or-never as Abraham Ancer seeks a first PGA TOUR title.
The Mexican has been recording some outstanding tee-to-green numbers since the resumption of the Tour, and on tracks like this – where his relative lack of length isn’t penalized – Ancer has the game to shine.
Since finish T8 in his home Mayakoba Classic, Ancer has recorded a pair of solo second place finishes and two other top-20s, and his consistency is an attractive feature for a player who is striking the ball so well.
T8 at TPC River Highlands last year, Ancer may never get a better chance to pick up that PGA TOUR ‘W’.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 7th
- Scoring Average – 19th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 51.63 Salary: $7,900)
In the hunt for the title at the RBC Heritage, Joaquin Niemann fell just short in the end but it was his outstanding iron play that got him into the equation. That could be very handy this week.
The Chilean finished inside the top-five here 12 months ago, and he loved aiming his darts at the flag in damp conditions. Fast forward to this week, and the vibe may be very similar.
The Greenbrier champion is comfortable on Bentgrass and, by and large, saves his best golf for Par 70 events – precise ball-striking, rather than brutal hitting, is the name of Niemann’s game.
Since the Charles Schwab Challenge, he has posted four of his last seven rounds at 65 or better – that is handsome form indeed.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 28th
- Greens in Regulation – 34th
- Scoring Average – 41st
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Corey Conners (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 63.8, GPFP: 51.o0 Salary: $7,500)
As long as his form and health holds, you suspect Corey Conners will win plenty more PGA TOUR titles to add to his Texas Open crown, and you suspect courses like TPC River Highlands are where his immaculate ball-striking will be best rewarded.
You know the drill by now – premium tee-to-green merchants are always on our radar in the hope that their putting improves, and while the Canadian remains hit-and-miss on that front he has posted some intriguing numbers of late. He gained +2.22 strokes on the field with his flat stick on Friday – anything even approaching that figure more consistently will serve him very well.
A veritable green-finding machine, Conners will have an advantage over many in the field this week and if he finds the slow(ish) greens to his liking who knows how close he can go.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 3rd
- SG: Approach – 23rd
- Driving Accuracy – 33rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 64.4, GPFP: 51.55 Salary: $6,600)
On debut at TPC River Highlands, you suspect that this layout will be right up Matthew NeSmith’s street.
He’s another who finds a higher percentage of greens in regulation than most, and if his putter is working – that tends to blow hot and cold, truth be told – then he can convert his scoring chances.
Since the Mayakoba Classic, NeSmith has only missed one cut in eleven starts, with three top-20s and a best of T6 at the Puerto Rico Open. That consistency makes his salary here something of an absolute bargain.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 20th
- Scoring Average – 25th
- Strokes Gained: Putting – 41st
Sleeper Pick for Travelers Championship
Dylan Frittelli (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 62.0, GPFP: 49.60 Salary: $7,100)
For a large swathe of Sunday’s action, Dylan Frittelli enjoyed the clubhouse lead at Harbour Town.
He wasn’t likely to win with -17 – conditions were too amiable after the storm – but it just goes to show that he was at least close to a second PGA TOUR title.
Central to Frittelli’s progress were a couple of extraordinary rounds of golf – he gained +5.68 strokes from tee-to-green on Thursday, and +5.09 on Sunday – and so the upshot is clear: if he had played a smidgen better on Friday and Saturday, he would have gone very close indeed.
A proven wind player, Frittelli could far outperform this salary point at TPC River Highlands.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 45th
- Scrambling – 61st
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 99th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for Travelers Championship
Doc Redman (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 62.7, GPFP: 50.19 Salary: $6,700)
One of the fun things about golf analysis is that we have all the stats on hand to break down a player’s game.
When we look at Doc Redman, we find a tremendously gifted young man who has a very high-quality iron game already.
Other departments need work of course, but the 22-year-old is certainly heading in the right direction in his fledgling professional career.
Redman is at least accurate off the tee to go with his sublime approach play, and if he can find a short game of any repute he will be a fixture on the upper echelons of tournament leaderboards more often than not.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 24th
- SG: Approach – 25th
- Greens in Regulation – 40th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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