Fantasy Golf Predictions

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The 2014 John Deere Classic

Published

12 years ago

July 7, 2014

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2014 John Deere Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 John Deere Classic

This Week’s Tournament Preview

As most of the world’s best head over to the Scottish Open to prep for a links style British Open next week, some notable names will hang around Illinois to compete in this week’s John Deere Classic. Although Woods, Mickelson, Scott, and Kuchar won’t be in attendance, we expect young guns like Kirk, Stroud, English, and Spieth as they continue their stellar seasons at TPC Deere Run.

Notorious for posting low scores, TPC Deere Run can certainly be a forgiving course. In our analysis this week we’ll be dissecting course stats and lining them up with the players in the field to uncover who has the best chance of making some noise this week.

The weather could also be an issue later in the week as rain is expected through the weekend.

Memorable Moments: John Deere Classic

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we opted for Brendon Todd as our top pick although the clear Vegas (and countly other fantasy sites) favorite was Jimmy Walker. If you play salary cap leagues and picked Todd (T4 $227K) over Walker (MC), you have had a decent week.

We also included Bubba in the mix and although he finished with a disappointing T16, our overall finish was enough to continue to keep our average monthly fantasy earnings over $1 million per week (through 27 Tournaments).

The Field

There be plenty of defending champions with the ability to repeat in the field this week, including last year’s champ Jordan Spieth, and 3-time winner Steve Stricker. Another past winner, Zach Johnson (2012), will also be in the field along Chris Kirk who currently sits in 7th place in the FedExCup standings.

David Duval will make his eighth start of the year to prepare for the Open next week, where he won the event in 2001. However, with the field being as robust with young talent as it is, we don’t see much noise coming out of Duval this week.

While names like Stroud, Martin, and Hurley III can give some of the big names a run this week, most of the elite World ranked players will be across the pond beginning their practice at Royal Liverpool.

The Course

TPC Deere Run measures in at 7,268 yards and plays as a par 71. The course was built on a site where past Native American settlements once graced the land and was designed by D.A. Weibring in 1999. TPC Deere Run offers multiple elevation changes, even including a drivable downhill 358-yard par 4.

Through the years the course has been known to card some low scores, including the fourth 59 in history made here (the same year Stricker won with a 60 on his card).

This week we’ll be looking for the players who can skillfully navigate this rolling track to post the low scores needed to win here at TPC Deere Run.

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions - The 2014 John Deere Classic

Photo by TPC.com

Weather Forecast for Silvis, IL (from weather.com)

Round 1: Thursday (July 10) 78 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
Round 2: Friday (July 11) 77 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
Round 3: Saturday (July 12) 86 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated t-storms.
Round 4: Sunday (July 13) 82 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated t-storms.

2013 Results

TPC Deere Run marked the location for emerging star Jordan Spieth’s first career win. In fact, with his 2013 John Deere Classic win Spieth became the first teenage PGA TOUR winner since 1911, and did so in style with his infamous hole-out from the bunker on the 7nd hole to force a three way playoff with David Hearn and Zach Johnson.

The playoff lasted four holes with Spieth finally ending it at No. 18, where he was the only player to find the green after driving into tree trouble. The win also snapped Zach Johnson’s attempt to go back-to-back here at TPC Deere Run.

The 19-year-old (at the time) sealed a full TOUR card with the win and hasn’t cooled off since, with 28 Top 25s this season alone.

Here’s wrap-up of Round 4 from last year’s edition of The John Deere Classic:

Round 4 Recap: 2013 John Deere Classic

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Media

Television Broadcasts
- Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
- Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS).
Radio Broadcasts
- Thursday-Sunday, noon – 6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM).
Mobile Broadcasts
- Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Our focus this week is on aggressive players. We know this is broad stat, but when you crunch the numbers, you can really start to see which guys will fair well on this course.

TPC Deere Run yielded 36 eagles last year and a total of 1966 par-breakers. With that in mind, we’re going to look at stats like fairway %, GIR%, and as always, recent play and past performance. Before picking the obvious names that Vegas has hoisted so high on their odds boards, give a thought to the two names on the top of our list this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 John Deere Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 John Deere Classic

Chris Kirk (Golficity Odds 8/1): With all the choas going on around the TOUR lately we’ve decided to switch things up a bit this week. We normally don’t drool over Vegas favorites, and this week is no different. Simply put, Kirk can win this tournament, there is no question about it. We also feel that he is extremely undervalued this week, especially at the current Vegas odds of 33/1. With twenty-two consecutive cuts made and eleven top 25s in 2013-14, there is no denying that he is playing some of the best golf on TOUR right now. It also helps that he’s 3-for-3 at TPC Deere Run with two T22s. We’re going to help you create a more even salary cap team this week by making Kirk our most expensive pick.
Chris Stroud (Golficity Odds 15/1): Not a bad showing for Stroud last week as he finished T4 at Greenbrier and led the field in scrambling. Stroud has three Top 20s in his last four starts and he’s 5-for-5 at TPC Deere Run with two top 25 finishes. His game is beginning to heat up and he makes a great combo with Kirk in any salary cap league.
Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 18/1): Spieth is easily the hottest player on TOUR without a win this year. The returning champion comes into TPC Deere Run to defend his only title and we love his chances this week. You probably used him a lot this season, but in leagues where you don’t have maximums, he’s a solid favorite, especially in Tier A in pick’em leagues. Jordan has 28 Top 25s in his record in his last 28 starts (which includes Top 20s in last four appearances). With his strong second place finishes at both the Masters and The PLAYERS, Jordan is in a solid position to make the Ryder Cup Team. There is no doubt that he will be fired up and confident in the defense of his crown this week.
Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 22/1): Both Zach and Steve Stricker play so well here we’re almost convinced that they had a hand in the design, but we’ll get to Steve in a moment. ZJ is a clear horse for the course here at TPC Deere Run, ammasing a win in 2012, a P2 last year, a T2 in 2009 and a T3 2011. Think about this, in his last twenty rounds at TPC Deere Run, Zach has a scoring average of 66.80 which basically means that he comes in 4.2 strokes under par on average in every round he plays here (amounting to nearly -17 in each event). Zach is a must pick this week in any normal pick’em (non-tier) leagues. However, it’s worth noting that we still like Spieth over ZJ this time around if you had to pick just one.
Harris English (Golficity Odds 25/1): English was extremely hot before fading in the Spring, but he recently found a way to kick his game into full gear and start scoring. In what will be his first start since his T7 at the Travelers Championship (7th top 10 of season), English is looking to make moves after sharing 15th place in his debut here last year. Only four places off the Ryder Cup points board, he knows there is a lot on the line here this year and TPC Deere Run suits his aggressive game almost too well.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 John Deere Classic

Steve Stricker (Golficity Odds 35/1): The all-time money winner at this event, Stricker is a three-time John Deere Classic winner with four other top 10s under his belt (that includes his T10 last year). As mentioned earlier, Steve shot a 60 on this course and seems to dominate TPC Deere Run every time he steps foot on it. Tough making him a sleeper pick this week, but not many people will jump on the Stricker train this week with all of the other aforementioned young talent in the field.
Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 45/1): Moore has been making a lot of noise lately and he’s yet another Ryder Cup potential competitor coming into this event pretty well rested since finishing T5 at Travelers where he gave up the 54 hole lead on the final day. Also keep in mind that Moore has five top 10s this season and is 5-for-5 in cuts made here since 2008.

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