Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson

The 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

The hottest player on the PGA TOUR will yet once again tee-it0-up in his home State this week as the wheels on the Jordan Spieth train keep picking up steam.  Don’t let his missed cut at the PLAYERS worry you, sometimes hot players just need a break.  The key question is whether or not a player can rebound and Spieth did just that last week at Colonial with his T2 finish which marked his 5th Top 2 finish of the season (2 wins, 3 runner-ups).

It’s also refreshing to see Dustin Johnson back in the lineup this week, but can you really rely on him at such a high price?  A lot of guys get hot on the West-Coast swing and cool off heading into the summer—just like what we’ve seen from Patrick Reed.  However, DJ has three top-10 finishes in his past four visits to TPC Las Colinas, with his person best finish of T4 coming six years ago.

Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry and Boo Weekley will all be trying to capture the “Fort-Worth Title” by winning both events played in the DFW area, a feat accomplished by 15 people—last done by Adam Scott in 2014 with his win at Colonial.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

What an exciting week for Golficity Premium members last week as four of our picks including one of our Sleeper Picks was at one point in first place or T1 on the weekend!  Despite the two missed cuts, we successfully had four Top 10 finishers including 2-runner ups (Spieth T2, Jason Bohn T2, Ian Poulter T5, and Kevin Na T10).

Na and Poulter looked to be in control heading into the weekend before both slipped back a few spots.  The good news is that both still earned a ton of fantasy points by finishing within the Top 10.  Most predictions last week favored names like Walker and Scott, but it was the Poulter, Na, Bohn picks that really set us apart.

Closing out our 25th event of the season we added yet another great money earning week with a total of $1.337 million dollars from our top five selections and two sleeper picks.  We’re perhaps most happy with our 50/1 Jason Bohn pick who had a nice $7,300 price tag on DraftKings.  His T2 finish earned a lot of players some nice cash in their salary cap leagues last week.

This season’s (2014-2015) Golficity fantasy picks winners to date now include:

• Jimmy Walker (Sony Open)
• Jason Day (Farmers Insurance Open)
• Jordan Spieth (Valspar Championship)
• Jimmy Walker (Valero Houston Open)
• Jordan Spieth (Masters)
• Justin Rose (Zurich Classic)
• Rory McIlroy (Wells Fargo Championship)

The Field

As we featured in our preview, this week’s field will be headlined by Jordan Spieth, who coincidently played in his first PGA TOUR event at this event about 6 years ago (at the young age of 16).

Also in the lineup will be names like Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, and fantasy superstar Charlie Hoffman.  In total there will be ten players ranked inside the Top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings playing in this edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson.

You’ll have a lot of decisions to make this week when building your roster so let us do the heavy lifting and breakdown for you who’s hot and cold and whose game is tough enough to outlast the rest at TPC Las Colinas.  After all, when everyone was picking Walker, Zach Johnson, and Scott last week, we had the insight to go with Poulter, Na, and Bohn.

The Course

TPC Four Seasons Resort measures in at 7,166 yards and plays as a par 70.  The Jay Morrish creation has been face-lifted to increase difficulty with additions of undulating greens—which adds more of a precocious factor this week.

We’ll be using accuracy-related stats when calculating our odds based on this as well as putting, which this course has been known to challenge players with.  The course is filled with runoffs close to the greens which often haunt some players with poor approach shots.  How quickly a missed green can become a bogey (or worse) here will be the theme of the week and we’ll emphasize GIR stats in our picks as well.

It’s also worth noting that there has been some extensive landscaping work done here which brings more water into play.

Photo by FourSeasons.com.

Weather Forecast for Irving, TX

The weather brains are calling for scattered thunderstorms all week and continuing on from round 1 through 4.  Temperatures will be in the low 80s and wind shouldn’t be much of a factor over the weekend.

Heavy thunderstorms threaten the area on Monday, which will keep all players from practicing until Tuesday of this week.  This shouldn’t be an issue for anyone in the field and won’t affect our picks/selections this week.

If you’re in the area and plan on attending, brings some rain gear and be prepared to get delayed if lighting swings through.

AT&T Byron Nelson 2014 Results

Last year Brendon Todd emerged as a new PGA TOUR winner earning his first victory by beating out Mike Weir by two shots.  Todd closed with a 4-under-par 66 and didn’t make a bogey all day.

His most crucial hole was his par on the 13th when Todd was forced to play a shot left-handed from next to a tree near the green (you have to check this out in the video below 1 minute 40 seconds in!).  His putting stroke was remarkable all week and it clearly helped him outpace the competition.  Mike Weir shot a 67 after birding four of his first five holes.

Here’s what happened last year in case you missed it:

Brendon Todd captures his first win at HP Byron Nelson | Highlights

In the final round of the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship, Brendon Todd never let up and now can add his name to the list of first time winners after carding a 4-under 66. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 4:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday  3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday  1:00pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on The Golf Live Extra App for iPhone and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf this Week

Here are a few fantasy leagues we recommend this week for their nice payouts and inexpensive entry fees:

• DraftKings PGA $100K Birdie – A usual favorite, this $3 entry (free if you’re a first time player) is a great way to take a shot at a $10k first prize with payouts going to the top 7850 players.
• DraftKings PGA $2.5M Millionaire Maker SUPER Satellite $1 Entry: For the price of a cup of coffee at McDonald’s you can get into a qualifier for the U.S. Open event which is set to pay out $2.5 million dollars in cash prizes.  Heck, for $1 dollar why not scramble a roster a few times and try 5 entries…it could just lead to an overnight fortune come June!  In fact, if you remember back to The Masters, the guy who took home the $1 million first prize won his way into that event on a $1 satellite.  This event has a max capacity of 2,300 entrants but we doubt it will get that high.  Regardless, it’s wise to get your entry in early so you avoid the chance of being locked out.  The top 100 players in this week’s satellite will get a free ticket to the big game.

This Week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Notes

It’s going to be hard to pick Spieth in salary cap leagues this week and build a solid team around him given his super-inflated price tag.

This week most will take a cheaper route and stick a Jimmy Walker or Zach Johnson on their bench but we’re not quite sure that is a good idea…but then again is picking Spieth this week a good idea?  Sure these guys who’ve been hot over the last few weeks could cool down at any point and it could lead to a wasted week in fantasy.  Our job is simple: bring you the best five players for the right prices who have a legitimate chance to win, make cuts, and finish high.

This course is tough and like we mentioned in our course preview, its going to take solid putting and a high degree of accuracy to win here.  We’ll be factoring key stats in both those areas into our picks this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

Update 5/27/15 3:00 pm – Jason Day, Ian Poulter, and George McNeill have all been confirmed as late withdrawls from this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson.  Please stay tuned as we will be posting substitute picks for all three positions later today.

Update 5/27/15 4:30 pm – See below for info on substitute selections Brandt Snedeker, Gary Woodland, and Hunter Mahan.

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 4/1 FPPG: 89.3 Salary: $13,300): Not many people are talking about Spieth as much this week as in past events, which we feel is a huge mistake.  Now granted, some leagues you play in may allow you to pick players a certain amount of times and we know a lot of you have used up Spieth already this season or plan on saving him for down the stretch.  In those cases you can opt for a lower priced horse like Jason Day or DJ if you need too just pick one of the three, but if you can pick Spieth, we’d say to bet the farm on him.  It will be tough to build a salary-cap roster with Spieth’s hefty price tag, but we’ll try to give you a roster suggestion (below) if you’re picking him this week.  Jordan has never cracked a Top 15 here but the past is the past with this guy.  With five Top 2 finishes in his last eight events, how could bet against the hottest player on TOUR who essentially owns every statistical category?
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 90.5 Salary: $11,200): Day owns this course and is probably the one guy in the field this week who will give Spieth a run for his money.  If you can find a way to fit both of these guys on your roster this week, definitely run with it.  Day won his first PGA TOUR title here in 2010 and followed it up with a solo fifth in 2011, a T9 in 2012, and a T27 in 2013.  He currently co-leads the TOUR in both par-3 and par-4 scoring and sits in first place in Birdie Average and 18th in GIR percentage.  Needless to say, we’re liking his game a lot for this event.
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 16/1 FFPG: 69.8 Salary $10,000): Sneds makes a solid sub for the missing Jason Day this week. Both are born winners and Snedeker is coming off a big week at Colonial (although he has been streaky this season).  He was under par (70) in all four rounds of last week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational where he finished with an impressive T2.  Snedeker has a win already this season at Pebble Beach and his putting has been lights out lately.  As an added bonus, Brandt comes with a cheaper price tag then Day by better than $1,000.
• Ian Poulter (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 76.0 Salary: $9,600): Yes we’re back on the Ian Poulter train after we picked him last week and he earned us a T5 finish!  Although he hasn’t seen this course since 2009 (he hadn’t seen Colonial at all and finished T5) Poults is heating up for sure and looks to be closing in a his first win on the PGA TOUR since the 2012 WGC-HSBC Championship.  His finish last week ended a four-year hiatus at Colonial where he finished with a T5 and ranked fourth in strokes gained putting.  Also keep in mind that although he lacks a win this season, Ian currently ranks third on TOUR in scoring average.
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 22/1 FFPG: 56.2 Salary $9,200): Like Snedeker, Woodland has a tendency to get streaky.  He missed two straight cuts before his T4 at Quail Hollow two weeks ago.  He also finished runner-up to McIlroy at Match Play not long ago.  Woodland has five straight made cuts at TPC Four Seasons and we think he makes a better (and cheaper) sub for Poulter over Jimmy Walker this week.
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 69.4 Salary: $9,200): Thomas has been reborn as of late with four Top 24 finishes in his last four events including a T11 and a T7 (last week).  He’s making his debut on this course but has a towering drive which can give him a little advantage on this relatively shorter track.  Thomas is arguably the top candidate for Rookie of the Year right now and has all the right tools to win at TPC Four Seasons.  He ranks fourth in the all-around, eighth in putting average, and knows how to find Greens in Regulation.
• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 32/1 FPPG: 58.8 Salary: $8,800): Leishman will be a popular pick this week and there’s good reason for that.  Marc should definitely be considered for your mid-tier player pick.  He’s coming off of a T27 at Colonial with a pair of 70s on the weekend.  Leish has five top-12 finishes in six tries at TPC Four Seasons which include T3s in 2012 and 2014.  Although his stats don’t scream “buy” this week, we have to run with course experience here and give him a go.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

• Brooks Koepka (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 77.2 Salary: $7,700): He hasn’t played since his missed-cut at The PLAYERS, but we love his price tag this week.  Koepka is usually an $8,000-$8,500 player in most salary cap leagues and this week we see him at a bit of a discount.  He’s a fantastic putter, can hit the ball a mile, and has some quality stats in Strokes Gained Putting (14th) and Strokes Gained Total (11th).

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

• George McNeill (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 61.6 Salary: $7,100): McNeill is a name most won’t pick this week, but we’ve been watching this guy play for a few weeks now and we’re liking what we see.  With 13/16 made cuts and his recent hot play last week at Colonial (T5), this one is a no-brainer for the price.  George struggles finding greens but his putting can make up for it.  He makes a solid sleeper pick in the low $7,000 range this week for sure.
• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 66/1 FFPG: 67.6 Salary $7,100): Mahan hasn’t made much noise since winning the 2014 Barclays and creeping onto the Ryder Cup roster last fall.  Regardless, we have to take a guy who has 13/14 made cuts this year with over 67 FPPG at the attractive price of $7,100.  Hunter has three Top 10s this year and ranks 7th on TOUR in Overall Putting Average (a key stat on this course).  We like Mahan’s odds and we really love the price tag.

Roster Suggestion With Spieth

Roster Suggestion Without Spieth

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 5/1): T2 ($485, 333)
• Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 12/1): T10 ($134,875)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 20/1): MC
• Ian Poulter (Golficity Odds 26/1): T5 ($220,350)
• Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 38/1): MC

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

• Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 50/1): T2 ($485, 333)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

• John Peterson (Golficity Odds 66/1): 79th ($11,960)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”13.71%” bar_text=”24 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”26.86%” bar_text=”47 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”28%” bar_text=”7 out of 25 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”44%” bar_text=”11 out of 25 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”82.86%” bar_text=”145 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=”1 out of 1 event” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo by @randeesmithprez on Instagram