Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 BMW Championship

The 2015 BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

We were certainly hoping to be 2 for 2 in the FedExCup playoffs but sadly our pick Henrik Stenson fell just short to Rickie Fowler in a well fought battle at the Deutsche Bank Championship two weeks ago.  Stenson had the lead at the start of the Monday finishing round but plunked a ball into the water after an aggressive line tee shot on 16, which if he made par would have won him the tourney.  It wasn’t the ending we hoped for but regardless, our DraftKings teams with Stenson in the lineup still cashed in nicely.

Although generally overshadowed by Rickie’s exciting win, Hunter Mahan also made a nice run in Boston to get himself inside the Top 70 in order to keep his streak alive of playing in every playoff event in the last 9 years (throughout the entire existence of the FedExCup).

Jason Day and Jordan Spieth will be guaranteed top-five positions at the TOUR Championship regardless of their performance this week.  Keep in mind that if any player in the Top 5 in points going into East Lake wins the TOUR Championship they automatically win the FedExCup.

With an off-week behind us, the question will be which players have kept their game sharp heading into Chicago.  Is this the week that Spieth shakes off the cobwebs to make first playoff cut of the season?  Will the hot handed Fowler and Stenson continue to shine?  Plenty of questions remain and with the field narrowed down to 70 the fantasy picks will be tougher than ever at Conway Farms this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

As mentioned earlier, our pick to win, Henrik Stenson, fell just short after a disappointing 16th hole where he put his tee shot into the hazard which allowed Fowler overtake him and eventually snag the victory.  In all, here is how our Top 3 picks to win fared:

• Jordan Spieth: (MC) $0
• Henrik Stenson: (2nd) $891,000
• Bubba Watson: (T29) $54,863

Although Stenson’s late collapse crushed our hopes of going 2-for-2 in playoff victories our overall performance to date remains incredibly solid with over $45 million in weekly player earnings which equates to an $1.132 million per week average!

The Field

Hot off his win in Boston, Rickie Fowler comes into Lake Forest, IL this week with a full head of steam as he’s now moved all the way up to 3rd in the FedExCup points list and 5th in the OGWR.   The only two guys above him in the hunt for the cup are Jason Day (1) and Jordan Spieth (2) who have seven combined wins on the season.

Stenson will most certainly be a contender again this week and all eyes will be on Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson as fans hope the “long ball” guys finally break through.

In other news, Sergio Garcia, who sat out of the first two events of this year’s playoffs will make a comeback this week in the 54th spot on the leaderboard in hopes for a late surge.  Perhaps his “wait to play” strategy will work in his favor if he wins this week.

Although the field is cut to just 70 of the world’s top players there are still plenty of rookies with great fantasy value left in the mix including Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, and Zac Blair, however all sit outside the Top 30 so each will need to climb the standings to reach the finale.

For more here is the full field of 70 via PGATOUR.com

The Course

Conway Farms Golf Club measures in at 7,198 yards and will play as a par 71 this week.  This gem was once an actual farm located in Chicago’s North Shore and the infamous Tom Fazio design has hosted this event before.  The course opened in 1991 with the PGA TOUR first arriving only two years ago with the highlight being Jim Furyk’s amazing 59 in the second round of the 2013 BMW Championship.

The course is also notably famous for having Luke Donald as a member but it will take a lot more than home course knowledge for the former World No. 1 to move from the 80 spot to the number 30 cutoff for East Lake.

Here’s a look at Jimmy’s incredible 59 that came without a single bogey on the card:

[embedyt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww-NOqkGnt0&end=143&width=742&height=419&centervid=1[/embedyt]

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Weather Forecast for Lake Forest, IL

The wind will be swirling at Conway Farms this week with expected gusts of up to 20 mph during Round 1 on Thursday.  If that’s not enough, rain is forecasted to move in on Friday and won’t taper off until Sunday which should shape up to be sunny and pleasant later in the day with temperatures hovering just above 70 degrees.

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

It was sweet redemption for Billy Horschel last year at the BMW after blowing an easy victory in the event prior at TPC Boston.  Billy locked down a two-shot triumph at Cherry Hills over Ryan Palmer and Sergio Garcia.  He would later go on to win again the very next next week to clinch the 2014 FedExCup trophy.

Horschel closed the tournament with a 1-under-par 69 on Sunday helped by 11 consecutive pars to close out his round.  Sergio Garcia charged after him by slicing a seven-shot deficit to just two strokes but went on to make triple bogey on 17, thus ending his chances of catching Billy.

Here’s a look at Billy Horschel’s outstanding performance at Cherry Hills last year:

[embedyt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiR7IsAmej4&width=742&height=419&centervid=1[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday: 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday: 12:00 pm – 3:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday: 3:30 pm – 6:00 pm EST (NBC)
  • Sunday: 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday: 2:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (NBC)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday: 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday: 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week

DraftKings has begun their super high payout NFL season and most of you have undoubtedly been checking it out for week 1, but the PGA TOUR season isn’t over yet and there are plenty of payouts left to be had.  In fact, this is when it gets exciting on DraftKings because we’re picking just 6 players out of 70 and next week the field cuts to just 30! That said, here are the leagues we like this week:

• PGA $700K DRIVE THE GREEN CHAMP [$100,000 TO 1ST!]:  We’re fans of this 3 dollar entry game every week because it allows you to take multiple chances at a $100,000 first prize.  For just 21 bucks you can score seven chances to change out horse picks and sleepers to find that one lineup that will make you a big score.  Even if you’re saving the big bucks for the weekly NFL match-ups it’s still worth throwing one or two chances at this one.
• PGA $500K FANTASY GOLF MAIN EVENT [$100K TO 1ST!]: Speaking of high stakes, if you’re after the big prize and want to limit your playing pool to 370 players, you can enter this “big fish” $1,500 entry league.  The contest pays all the way down to 75th place which will bank you $2,500 which is a $1000 profit just for finishing in the top 20%.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship

Ok here’s the deal this week with fantasy sports: with so many different styles of leagues out there it’s tough to cover everyone but let’s offer some valued advice for a few of the most popular formats.

• Pick’em Leagues: These leagues require perhaps the least skill—you simply pick a handful of names from the field with no salary cap or player pick suggestions to worry about.  If you’re in these leagues the formula is quite simple: just fill your roster with our 5-7 picks.  We can’t give everything away here but you’ll be in good shape by looking at the FedExCup point list and starting from the top.
• Salary Cap: As we always preach, there is a bit of science to picking the perfect salary cap roster.  You need a roster that looks like this on a math test:  A + B + B/C + C + C+ D+F = Cash.   Let us explain.  You need a strong 1-2 punch like a Spieth-Watson or a Day-Fowler followed up with three guys in the $7,200-$7,800 range and one perhaps in the $8K.  Then throw in a $6800 and a sub $6500 (for you “F” pick) to round out the equation.  Most people say to not overthink it, but overthinking it has worked well for us *wink.

So who’s it going to be this week at Conway Farms?  Will Furyk surprise us again and shock the rest of your fantasy league or will Fowler stay hot and carry his momentum to what could be a FedExCup winning season?

We’ll dive into the key stats and highlight the best equation for you this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship

Rory McIlroy – Jason Day – Jordan Spieth?

We wanted to pick Rory so bad here but he hasn’t had much love at Conway Farms with his T59 in 2013.  We know course history isn’t everything but did you watch him putt in Boston?  If anyone is due for a bounce back its Jordan Spieth but after the last two events he’s played we’re having trouble justifying picking him over Day.

Jason Day Golficity Odds 4/1 FPPG: 93.00 GPFP: 118.11 Salary:$12,600): He’s got the highest salary price tag for a reason this week and there’s just no denying his value.  JDay is arguably the hottest player on the planet right now and you can’t let a T12 scare you from picking him this week.  We left him off our rosters last week in place of Spieth and we’re not making that mistake again.  Jason did admit that fatigue set in at TPC Boston but even on his “off week,” he still finished T12!  Day won three of his four previous starts and had a taste of the Top 5 at Conway Farms with his T4 in 2013.  Who’s better to lead your roster onto the BMW than him.

• GIR Rank: 8th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green:  7th
• Putting Average: 2nd
• Scrambling: 6th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 2nd

Henrik Stenson – Rickie Fowler – Bubba Watson?

Since you can only realistically have one of these guys on your roster it’s important that you choose wisely.  That said, we’re going to sit Bubba after watching his play last week.  Something was clicking for the lefty at Plainfield but it went the other way a week later.  Fowler is hot and we’re kicking ourselves for benching him last week but if we had to pick between the two, we’re going Stenson this week because he’s simply playing better.  Fowler took advantage of a costly mistake on Stenson’s part and he held on to victory, but that’s just not enough for us to pick him over Stenson this week.

Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 85.82 GPFP: 68.66 Salary:$11,400): The beast within Henrik just seems comes alive at the right time.  With two solo 2nd place finishes at the first two playoff events you have to think the Swede is looking to do one better.  He’s been a fantasy monster over the last two weeks and we see him continuing that trend at Conway Farms.  Stenson is the best on TOUR in ball-striking and when he’s on, he’s lethal.  We like him in this spot although putting is where Rickie Fowler matches up much better.  Check out these stats:

• GIR Rank: 1st
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 2nd
• Putting Average: 162nd
• Scrambling: 57th

* Most Notable Stat: Ball Striking: 1st

Jim Furyk – Hideki Matsuyama – Sergio Garcia?

We thought of giving the nod to Sergio since he’s always a big game player with great leaderboard capability but his three week layoff and propensity to choke when he gets close to the winner’s circle concerns us.  Matsuyama flipped the switch and started playing well again but he’s a first timer here and we think Furyk has the edge.

Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 70.20 GPFP: NA Salary:$10,000): The thing about fantasy golf is that you can’t always just pick the highest priced players in the field, even if salary cap didn’t matter because every now and then you’re going to get a Davis Love III or a David Lingmerth as the winner.  That said, Furyk is both a popular and solid choice this week for a few reasons.  This pick is certainly not just based on his impressive 59 here either as anyone on the PGA TOUR can go out there and catch lightning in a bottle once in a blue moon.  What we like is the fact that he was 9-strokes off the lead after round one and then went out to fire that 59 on the same exact course the next day.  When Jimmy finds a course that fits his (odd) swing, he usually ends up repeating success.  Another reason we like him is because he’s trending in the right direction coming off that T4 in Boston and is in 9th place on the points list giving him a real chance to win his second FedExCup trophy.  Our only concern this week is that Furyk struggles a bit with the putter but with all the rain coming into Conway Farms fast greens may not be an issue.

• GIR Rank: 16th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 3rd
• Putting Average: 151st
• Scrambling: 21st

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: 2nd

Kevin Kisner (Golficity Odds 35/1 FPPG: 79.34 GPFP: 72.64 Salary:$8,700): Kisner comes in ranked 15th of the FedExCup points leaderboard with a chance to move into the Top 10 before heading to East Lake.  He has Top 20s in his last two playoff starts and during that time he ranked 10th in ball-striking and ninth in strokes gained putting.  His overall season stats scare us a bit but we believe we’ve identified a trending player here and we really like Kisner in this price range.

• GIR Rank: 82nd
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green:  43rd
• Putting Average: 102nd
• Scrambling: 15th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 27th

Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 69.61 GPFP: 75.88 Salary:$7,600): JT was quiet last week with a T59 finish in Boston but has a lot on the line as he looks to close out his (most likely) Rookie of the Year season.  The sponsors will be all over him (if they aren’t already) and a trip to the TOUR Championship with a chance to win it all would be the icing on the cake for this young superstar.

• GIR Rank: 36th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green:  20th
• Putting Average: 14th
• Scrambling: 35th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 9th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the BMW Championship

Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 59.80 GPFP: NA  Salary: $7,400): At under $7,500 Knox is underrated this week for sure and comes in right near the bubble at 29th place.  His name is among five others who started the playoffs off with two Top 20 finishes (T20 Plainfield, T12 TPC Boston).  He’s also been lights out with hitting GIR during this year’s playoffs with a ranking of 3rd and 6th overall on TOUR.  Knox is a good name to choose in the $7k range this week.

• GIR Rank: 6th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 23rd
• Putting Average: 120th
• Scrambling: 72nd

* Most Notable Stat: Greens in Regulation: 6th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the BMW Championship

Zac Blair (Golficity Odds: 100/1 FPPG: 50.88 GPFP: 40.64  Salary:$6,800): His best finish of the season was a T4 at Plainfield three weeks ago, but Zac went on to post a T60 in Boston after firing a disappointing 76 on the final day.  There isn’t much to say other then you need a guy on your roster in this price range in order to have some heavier artillery up top so Blair is who we are going with as our “super sleeper.” He’s currently 59th in points and needs an impressive finish to make it East Lake which we can see happening.  Perhaps the best thing he has going for him is that he can scramble and putt like a monster and that’s key on this course.

• GIR Rank: 120th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 146th
• Putting Average: 89th
• Scrambling: 9th

* Most Notable Stat: Total Putting: 5th

Roster Suggestion With Jason Day

Roster Suggestion Without Jason Day

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results for the Deutsche Bank Championship

• Jordan Spieth : MC ($0)
• Henrik Stenson: 2nd ($891,000)
• Bubba Watson: T29 ($54,863)
• Brooks Koepka: MC ($0)
• Robert Streb: T39 ($18,563)

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

• Justin Thomas: T56 ($18.563)

Last Week’s Salary Cap Sleeper Pick to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

• Tony Finau: MC ($0)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”13.57%” bar_text=”38 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”70 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”32.50%” bar_text=”13 out of 40 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”37.50%” bar_text=”15 out of 40 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”80.71%” bar_text=”226 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=”4 out of 4 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the BMW Championship with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo via @patrickdonohue on Instagram