Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational

The 2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational Preview

This week the TOUR shifts back to Texas where all eyes will again focus on Texas’ two hottest guns, Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker.  These hometown heroes still sit in the top two spots in the FedExCup playoffs and with the charging Rory McIlroy leaping to 3rd after his win Sunday, you can bet on it that Spieth and Walker will try to separate themselves from the mid-season pack.

Spieth comes in as a two time winner already this season with both a Masters victory and a Valspar Championship trophy to his credit.  He also has runner-up finishes in both Texas events leading up to Masters.

Jimmy Walker, also a two time winner this year, is no stranger to Texas wins either with his victoy at TPC San Antonio (VTO).

Another story this week will be Adam Scott who will try to go back to back at Colonial, a feat only accomplished by Ben Hogan who did it twice (1946-47 & 1952-53).

We saw Webb Simpson have some hometown success last week at Quail Hollow with his T2, so it makes you think…will Ryan Palmer, a Colonial member, have the home course advantage this week after finishing in the top-15 in the last three years?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we finally decided to jump back on the Rory train just at the right time.  We don’t rush to get hot on a player like Rory until we begin to see his stats in key areas beginning to heat up.  We noticed his game trending in the right direction after his Match Play victory and then a week later at the PLAYERS where he had a decent follow-up to his win.

With the win last week we notched our 7th winner picked out of 24 events this season which helped to keep us above the $1 million mark in average weekly average fantasy earnings.

Our Justin Thomas pick earned us some solid points as well as the potential Rookie of the Year finished T7, earning just over $220K in the process.

Between Rory and Justin, they put up a combined 236.5 fantasy points on DraftKings last week.

In case you’re not already a Golficity Premium member, here’s was our Top “Horse” Pick analysis for last week.  Needless to say, we were spot on:

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 3/2  FPPG: 72.3 Salary: $14,000): We’ve now finally and officially hopped on the McIlroy train for the first time this season and we think he’s going to enter into a real “Rory Phase” heading into the summer.  Rors won this event back in 2010 which marked his first win on the PGA TOUR.  He also has three other Top 10s at the Wells Fargo Championship and has the ideal golf game to win at Quail Hollow.  The key to success with Rory is getting hot and staying hot, and he followed up his win at the WGC Match Play with a solid T8 at THE PLAYERS.  We’ll roll the dice on this guy at Quail Hollow any day.

This season’s (2014-2015) Golficity Fantasy Picks Winners to date now include:

• Jimmy Walker (Sony Open)
• Jason Day (Farmers Insurance Open)
• Jordan Spieth (Valspar Championship)
• Jimmy Walker (Valero Houston Open)
• Jordan Spieth (Masters)
• Justin Rose (Zurich Classic)
• Rory McIlroy (Wells Fargo Championship)

The Field

As we mentioned in the preview, Masters champ Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker will be the featured names in this week’s field.  Together they will join the defending champion Adam Scott and eight others from the top 35 in the world rankings.

You can’t rule out some of the silent killers like Poulter, Casey, and Charlie Hoffman when it comes time to fill out your roster, just make sure these guys are the right fit for this course this week—but we’ll break that all down for you in our picks segment below.

The field consists of 11 players in the Top 35 in World Rankings as well as some other fantasy golf silent assassins that tend to rack up serious fantasy golf points without catching much buzz from the media.

We picked Scott to win at Colonial last year and had had Holmes in 2014 to win at Quail Hollow.  we plan on following up Rory’s win last week with another back-to-back this year with a winner at the Crowne Plaza Invitational.

The Course

Colonial Country Club measures in at 7,204 yards and plays as a par 70.  This track is filled with doglegs and narrow fairways, so players with solid accuracy off of the tee with and excellent shot shaping ability should fare the best here.

Colonial first opened its doors in the 1930’s and played host to the 1941 U.S. Open.  The track also hand the distinction of hosting the second ever PLAYERS Championship in 1975 as well as numerous events throughout its tenure on TOUR.

The 5th hole at Colonial is often mentioned as one of the best holes in America and ranks among the toughest holes on TOUR.  Keeping with the TOUR theme of tough 3-holes stretches like the Snake Pit, Green Mile, and the Bear Trap, Colonial has its own three-hole challenge on the front 9 known as the “Horrible Horseshoe.”

Photo by ColonialFW.com

Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX

Typical Texas heat will prevail at Colonial however this year’s edition could also be a little soggy.  The weather for this week’s event calls for scattered thunderstorms through all four rounds which could force some delays.

The course should be soft and damp which could affect some players’ ability to score but still look for soft greens and solid GIR players to lock in some great fantasy points.

Crowne Plaza Invitational 2014 Results

In 2014 Adam Scott was just freshly crowned as the World’s best player overtaking Tiger Woods when he came out of the gate with a vengeance by firing his first win as World No. 1.  The Aussie won by defeating Jason Dufner in a playoff after beginning the day two shots off the lead and falling to three-back after the turn.

Something clicked for Scott and he grooved his way to a 4-under 66.  As the playoff began, both guys pared the first hole and birded the second before Scott made a 7-foot birdie on the 18th hole to win.

The win marked Adam Scott’s 11th PGA TOUR victory and made him the first to complete the “Texas Grand Slam,” which includes wins at the Shell Houston Open (2007), Byron Nelson Championship (2008), and Valero Texas Open (2010).

Here’s what happened last year in case you missed it:

Adam Scott retains top ranking in the world at Crowne Plaza | Highlights

In the final round of the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, Adam Scott defeated Jason Dufner with a birdie on the third playoff hole to win and remain world number one. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 4:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday  3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday  1:00pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on The Golf Live Extra App for iPhone and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf this Week

Here are a few fantasy leagues we recommend this week for their nice payouts and inexpensive entry fees:

• DraftKings PGA $100K Birdie [$100,000 Guaranteed] $3 Entry: For $3 bucks you can jump into a league with a chance to nab a $10K first place price.  A couple of our premium members emailed thanking us for jumping on the Rory train and we love hearing how much they cashed in on last weekend’s event!  Keep those stories coming!
• DraftKings PGA $2.5M Millionaire Maker SUPER Satellite $1 Entry: For the price of a cup of coffee at McDonald’s you can get into a qualifier for the U.S. Open event which is set to pay out $2.5 million dollars in cash prizes.  Heck, for $1 dollar why not scramble a roster a few times and try 5 entries…it could just lead to an overnight fortune come June!   This event has a max capacity at 2,300 entrants but we doubt it will get that high.  Regardless, it’s wise to get your entry in early so you avoid the chance of being locked out.  The top 100 players in this week’s satellite will get a free ticket to the big game.

Reminder: Like we mentioned above, don’t forget to enter the big game for the U.S. Open.  Given all the success of last major’s $2.2 million Masters contest, DraftKings is upping the ante for the U.S. Open with an even bigger prize pool set at $2.5 million dollars. If you don’t feel like playing a satellite, simply grab an entry here!

This Week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational Fantasy Notes

Be careful this week when selecting your roster.  Although Colonial is a standard par 35 out 35 in 70 track, it still doesn’t play that easy and even some of the bigger names in the field may not handle it well.  This week we are building our fantasy rosters around some key stats like putting and GIR while also taking less quantifiable factors into account such as shot shaping ability.

Again, try to build your roster around your horse and make sure you utilize our sleeper picks to help round it out (more sleeper picks will be available in our Tuesday Sleeper Report).  After all, it’s the sleeper picks like Patrick Rodgers (last week T2 at Quail Hollow) which help separate you from the pack.  The guy who won the $10K in our suggested “where to play” league last week had Rory (1) and “no-namer” Rodgers (T2) on his roster.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 5/1 FPPG 88.3 Salary: $13,000): We debated for a few hours on Spieth OR Walker and not both.  Don’t let the price tag sway you, after all, look what happened last week when we picked the most expensive guy at $14,000.  A lot of people may steer clear of Jordan this week due to his disappointing and unlikely missed cut at THE PLAYERS but you can’t throw in the towel on him because of that!  Spieth played 13 events this year and missed two cuts, but in those 11 made cuts he has seven Top 10’s including two wins and two runner-up finishes.  He’s arguably the hottest and most popular player on TOUR right now and he’s back in his home State where he notched those two runner-up finishes leading into the Masters.  Spieth ranks 1st in the following categories: Scoring Average, Approaches from > 100 yds, Putting Average, and Putts Per Round.  He ranks second in Strokes Gained Total and 3rd in Birdie Average.  Needless to say, he’s putting up better numbers than Walker and we think you can do much better leaving Walker on the bench this week.
• Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG 68.7 Salary: $9,900): Na seems to find himself in the hunt at most events and this year he’s made 13 cuts in 15 tourneys with five Top 10’s.  He ranks 9th on TOUR in both Putting Average and One-Putt Percentage and we’re putting a premium on all putting stats this week at Colonial.  Na is also streaking a bit, making four consecutive cuts and coming off of an impressive T6 at the PLAYERS which was his last event played.  Kevin could be a solid choice in combination with Palmer if you can’t squeeze him and Spieth on the same roster due to salary restraints.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG 72.6 Salary: $9,600): The defending champ Adam Scott should get a lot of roster play this week, but quite frankly, we can’t step into his camp yet until he shows us a spark.  Instead, we’re going with a guy who essentially invented shot-shaping.  Palmer’s game is solid enough to make noise at Colonial despite his silence lately.  He has 9 made cuts out of 11 events played in 2015 with 3 Top 10’s including  a solo 2nd.   Palmer has a nice draw in his bag that should set him up for this course, especially with his booming drives off of the tee.
• Ian Poulter (Golficity Odds 26/1 FPPG 74.8 Salary: $9,100): Is it Poulters’ turn to silence the golf critics like Rickie did at the PLAYERS?  Poults was the 2nd name listed in the most overrated article put out by Golf.com, but this isn’t the reason we’re picking him this week.  Ian has 10 made cuts out of 11 events with 3 Top 10s and currently ranks 14th in overall putting average on TOUR.  He doesn’t have much experience on this course, but that hasn’t stopped us in the past from picking winners.  Poulter has also quietly snuck up to 8th overall in scoring average this season on TOUR.
• Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG 65 Salary: $8,100): Berger is a baller, with a towering drive off the tee (ranks 12th on TOUR in driving distance) and 17th in GIR.  Honestly, we were a little shocked to see a lot of names priced higher then him this week, but we’ll happily take the discount.  Although he struggles a bit with the putter, he certainly knows how to find greens, and if the short stick heats up at Colonial, he could be a major factor this week.  Berger already has four Top 10’s in his rookie season and is making a serious case for Rookie of the Year.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

• Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG 62.8 Salary: $7,300): Bohn makes a solid sleeper pick as usual due to his consistent play.  The key thing with sleepers is to hope you catch lightning in a bottle and nab a Top 5 finish out of them for some bonus fantasy points while at the same time looking for guys who can avoid missing the cut and leaving you falt.  Bohn has 6 Top 25’s this season which includes three Top 10’s (solo 2nd).  He made some noise last week with his T9 at Quail Hollow which earned fantasy players some quality points for a sleeper pick.  He’s also extremely accurate off of the tee as he currently ranks 6th on TOUR in scoring average.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Crowne Plaza Invitational

• John Peterson (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG 66 Salary: $6,900): We’re going to give JP another look in the sleeper role this season here at Colonial.  We simply love this young gun’s game and he has the skills to make some noise this week.  When you can pick up a guy with 66 FPPG for less than $7K, you should always consider it.  With 15/16 made cuts and 6 Top 25’s this season Peterson is ripe for even more fantasy points this week.  He finished T26 in his only appearance here in 2013 and skipped last year’s edition but his game is in an even better place now.  Keep in mind that he’s just as accurate off the tee as Bohn and comes into Colonial riding a 7-made cuts streak and a T20 finish at Quail Hollow last week.

Sample DraftKings Roster With Spieth

Sample DraftKings Roster Without Spieth

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 3/2): WINNER $1,278,000
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 8/1): MC
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 14/1): T20 $71,621
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 22/1): T58 $15,407
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 28/1): T7 $228,975

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

• Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 50/1): T28 $43,310

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

• Jason Kokrak (Golficity Odds 75/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”13.10%” bar_text=”22 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”26.19%” bar_text=”44 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”29.17%” bar_text=”7 out of 24 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”8 out of 24 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”82.14%” bar_text=”138 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=”1 out of 1 event” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo by Craig ONeal on Flickr