Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines

This Week’s Tournament Preview

With the spotlight surrounding Tiger Woods’ comeback quickly fading—Tiger shot a career worst 82 in the 2nd round of the WM Phoenix—the press will now shift its attention to see if he can bounce back at Torrey Pins, a track that has been the site of eight of Woods’ career wins.

Mickelson, who played well in La Quinta but missed the cut on his “money course” last week, will also be back in action at Torrey Pines where he has a, not too shabby, four career victories of his own.  Tiger and Phil may be overlooked in most players’ fantasy rosters, but don’t be so quick to jump to that conclusion yet.  Here is a little history lesson about Tiger’s dominance at Torrey Pines (don’t miss his putt at 47-seconds):

Tiger Woods’ success at Torrey Pines

Tiger Woods has won a total of 13 times at Torrey Pines Golf Course, six wins as an amateur and seven as a professional. For complete coverage of the Farmers Insurance Open . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Another major headline this week will be the comeback of long ball hitter Dustin Johnson, who took a leave of absence from the game for personal reasons and alleged drug related issues.  DJ hasn’t played competitive golf since missing the cut at the Canadian Open last summer but rumor has it that he unofficially broke Tiger Woods’ course record at Sherwood CC in October 2014 by carding a 61 during a friendly round with soon-to-be father-in-law Wayne Gretzky.

Among these three headliners will be FedExCup leader Jimmy Walker and recent Humana Champion Bill Haas.  Names like Fowler, Day, Spieth, and the hot rookie Justin Thomas will all be back in action at the San Diego based public golf course this week, and Justin Rose will make his first appearance of the season on US soil.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We saw the chance for a big week slip away from us as the tricky wet conditions in Scottsdale sent a few of our favorites (and early leaders) down the leaderboard.  At the end of the week we finished with six out of our seven picks making the cut, along with two top 10 finishers including one of our Sleepers (Streb T10) and picks to win (Palmer T2).  The result was a solid showing for our picks in most DraftKings and other salary cap leagues given all the field shakeups this week.

Palmer had a chance to tie Koepka for a playoff but came up just short in the end on the final hole.

With the 10th event of the wrap-around season in the books, we are currently averaging just over $900,000 per event in weekly fantasy earnings with a 90% made-cut ratio, 21 Top 10’s and 11 Top 3 finishers.

The Field

Another robust field will step foot into Torrey Pines this week with an all-star lineup of 13 players in the Top 25 of the World Rankings on the ballot.  Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson will try to stage a comeback and quiet critics, while a long list of others will be seeking their first career wins, and a handful trying to make it two on the season.

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Woods has eight Farmers Insurance Open trophies to his name and even won on this course one additional time when the 2008 U.S. Open was in town.  Justin Rose, who has been flaunting his off-season hard work on all of his social media feeds, will test his skills in the U.S for the first time since the FedExCup playoffs.  Again, most of the golf world will be focusing its attention on the much-anticipated return of Dustin Johnson, who recently became a father with his fiancée Paulina Gretzky.  We’ll see if he can bounce back to become the dominant player he once was.

We are so blessed to have a happy and healthy baby boy. @paulinagretzky

A photo posted by Dustin Johnson (@djohnsonpga) on Jan 21, 2015 at 10:05am PST

 

In total, this week’s field will contain 152 players and the truth is that just about any one of them can run away with it.  We’ll be analyzing all 152 to see who has the best chance of winning this week at Torrey Pines in our picks segment below.

The Course

Torrey Pines GC (South Course) measures in at a whopping 7,698 yards and plays as a par 72.  This William Bell design was born in 1957 and sits along a breathtaking Pacific Ocean Cliffside.

Torrey Pines has been the annual stop on TOUR for a San Diego based event since 1968 and it underwent a major upgrade in 2001 by course designer Rees Jones—which led to them landing the 2008 U.S. Open.  Players in this week’s field will also have to play the North Course for early rounds due to the high volume of players—and that track plays much shorter at just above 7,000 yards (Par 72).  Check for more in-depth course and players stats in our “This Week’s Fantasy Notes” section below.

A photo posted by Gregoire Desfond (@gregoiredesfond) on Jan 29, 2015 at 11:29pm PST

Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA (from weather.com)

There is absolutely no threat of rain in the San Diego area this week and the course should remain dry throughout the duration of the event.  With temperatures in the 70’s and sunshine throughout, expect extremely nice weather this week for the Famers Insurance Open.

2014 Results

Scott Stallings notched his 3rd career PGA TOUR victory last year by breaking out of a five-way tie with a clutch birdie at the par-5 18th.  Stallings sat in the clubhouse only to watch the rest of the pack fall apart coming down the stretch.  An outstanding second shot 4-iron that cleared the water on 18 and landed on the green, put Stallings in within reach of an eagle attempt, but only a birdie was needed to take the lead.  He did just that in 2-putt fashion.

Gary Woodland came close to Stallings but his double on 17 after hooking his tee shot violently into the a canyon stopped him from making up the ground he needed.  Jason Day also bogeyed No.17 and ended up tying for second with Pat Perez, Marc Leishman and Graeme DeLaet.

Tiger Woods missed the Saturday cut-line and Mickelson had to WD after injuring his back.  Something tells us you could see the same scenario play out with these guys again this week, but, we hope they prove us wrong.

Here is a full recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Farmers Insurance Open:

Recap: 2014 Farmers Insurance Open

Twenty-two players went into the final round of the 2014 Farmers Insurance Open within four shots of the lead, setting up for an exciting finish at Torrey Pines in this recap from “Inside the PGA TOUR” Check out more ‘Inside’ videos http://www.youtube.com/pgatour Subscribe to the PGA TOUR channel The four-time Emmy Award nominated “Inside the PGA TOUR” airs on Golf Channel at 6:30 p.m.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

There’s no doubt that the South Course at Torrey Pines is a difficult test to even the best in the game.  As the longest course on the PGA TOUR schedule, the average score on this track in 2014 was a lofty 73.8 and the course consistently yields some of the worst GIR, scrambling, and fairways hit percentages.

The nice weather should help scores a bit this week, and there’s no question that a long ball hitter can be easily favored this week.

All players this week will get one crack at the 7,000 yard North course before the South track becomes the only course for the weekend.  With so many big names in the field this week, we’re going to key in on those three aforementioned stats, but we’re making sure driving distance and accuracy factor in as well.

Advice of the week: If you’re playing in a salary-cap league (e.g. DraftKings or Fantasy Feud), pick one solid horse and bet big on him, then fill in the next two slots with a few mid-priced studs.  Aim for two picks with price tags in the $7K-$9K range and then round out the rest of your roster by grabbing a few solid sleeper picks in the $5k-6,500 range.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 6/1): Coming in as the second most expensive DraftKings salary cap player behind Spieth at $14,700, Day is going to be our horse pick this week.  With an average FFPG (fantasy points per game) of 102.8, you can pick Day up for a discounted price over Spieth, who comes in with the exact same FFPG.  This is Jason’s first event since his T17 at the Sony a few weeks ago, but he came off of a T3 in Kapalua the week before.  He’s had plenty of previous success here at Torrey Pines including Top 10s in last two attempts, most notably his T2 in 2014.  Day owns the top rank in multiple key categories such as GIR percentage, Birdie Average, and Longest Drive.  Keep in mind that 409 yard bomb was a result of the windy downhill terrain at Kapalua, and the other stats are computed from only two events this year, but nevertheless, we like his game for the course this week.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 8/1): It was a toss up not having Walker in the top spot this week, but his driving accuracy percentage is pretty poor despite the his incredible success in his last two events (P2, 1).  Even though he’s lacking the accuracy we’re looking for, Jimmy has shown solid distance off the tee.  Our other concern has been his GIR percentage dip, which is why we’re not loving him as much as we did at the Sony.  But, we still think Walker has what it takes to break away from the pack this week.  He’s only worth $700 less than Day, but if you can’t afford Day on your roster this week, Walker will make a good sub as your horse pick.  Walker has Top 10s at Torrey Pines in 2012 and 2013, but unexpectedly missed the cut last year (which surprises us since he went Win (Sony), MC (Farmers), Win (Pebble Beach) consecutively last year).  In the end, the biggest question this week is which Jimmy will show up at Torrey Pines.
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 14/1): We’re going with the rookie over Spieth this week and even bumping Matsuyama (a clear favorite this week) from our list to work Thomas into the roster.  The simple fact is that he’s played tremendously well in the past three events and can clearly shorten this long course with his tremendous power.  His driving accuracy hurts him a bit but he’s proven he can hang in there and fight through the weekend.  Thomas is making a push to notch his fifth straight top 25s and is absolutely killing it in Par-5 scoring average with a 4.35 (ranked 4th on TOUR), and that seems to be the ticket to success at Torrey.
• Brooks Koepka (Golficity Odds 18/1): Koepka’s name would have found this list even without his win last week.  Have you watched this kid play lately?  Koepka is riding a victory into San Diego this week coming into the event as the TOUR leader in Driving Distance (315), Eagles, and Scoring Average (68.69)—not to mention third in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and second in Strokes Gained Overall!  We normally run away from back-to-back winners as it’s an incredibly difficult feat given the growing competition on TOUR, but with all those stat rankings, 3/3 made cuts, and the highest overall FPPG at 107, he needs to be on your roster this week.
• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 28/1): Leish almost made it to our sleeper picks, but he’s got a strong enough history here to make it in the top 5.  Like Tiger (who has only been left off our list this week because he’s not quite ready), Leishman knows how to tear up Torrey Pines.  He has two T2s (2010, 2014) and a T9 (2011) in just 6 attempts here, plus in his last start at the Sony he carded a 62, which tied his career low.  For $9,000 he’ll find his way on our fantasy lineup this week. This is one of those few instances where we’re throwing the stats away and focusing on overall potential to put up big points at Torrey.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

• Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 40/1): Knox comes cheap this week at only $7,500 and makes for perfect sleeper material.  We were tempted to go with DeLaet in this spot but we dislike his $10,100 price tag—and his 50% missed cut stat.  Knox is a good fit for the course, although he maxes out with an average drive of only 298 yards (17 yards under the top rank).  Regardless, we like this chances to put up some solid points for your team this week.  Knox’s finish in in Arizona last week was not too bad, coming in with a T15 at the WMPO (his 2nd top 15 in three starts this season).  He has the ability to laser shots and navigate tight and long courses, which could help him climb the leaderboard this week.  He’s also proven he knows the track well, notching a T10 here in 2014.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 60/1): Admittedly, we’re not quite ready to jump on the Pat Perez bandwagon just yet—although one day we’re sure he’ll make a lot of money for people who pick him week-to-week.  Instead, we loved what we saw out of Steele last week at Scottsdale (T26) and the week before at the Humana (T2).  At only $7,600 you can add Steele, a guy who ranks 10th in Driving Distance and 22nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, to your roster as an inexpensive sleeper pick in tandem with Knox.  Overall he hasn’t much success here, but is 3/4 in cuts made at Torrey Pines since 2011.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 WM Phoenix Open

• Rickie Fowler: (Golficity Odds 10/1): T46 (17,658)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 12/1): T30 ($36,729)
• Justin Thomas (Golficity 18/1): T17 ($94,500)
• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 28/1): T26 ($50,253)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 28/1): T2 (470,400)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 WM Phoenix Open

• Robert Streb (Golficity Odds 35/1): T10 ($157,500)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 WM Phoenix Open

• Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 50/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015 Season: 10.
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the season: $9,065,703 ($906,570 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 21 out of 70 picks (30.00%).
• Total Top 3s: 11 out of 70 picks (15.71%).
• Runner-Up Finishers: 4 in 10 events (40%).
• Total Winners Picked: 1 in 10 events (10%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 7 out of 70 players picked (90% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open with other Premium Members.

Want even more fantasy golf coverage for the Farmers Insurance Open?  Check out this week’s bonus Fantasy Sleeper Report here for additional long-shot picks to round out your roster. 

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(Cover Photo Credit)