Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba

The 2015 OHL Classic Fantasy Preview

We’re rapidly closing in on the final two events before the PGA TOUR takes a quick break for the holidays and so far four players under the age of 30 have gone out and secured their first PGA TOUR victory along with some essential early season FedExCup points.  It would not surprise us one bit to see an even younger winner this week at Mayakoba with so many rookies in the field for the OHL Classic.

Two of the four winners this season will be in the field among a long list of Web.com TOUR graduates.  Charlie Hoffman will be this week’s defending champion and in fact, it was the OHL Classic at Mayakoba last year that snapped his 4-year win drought.  Graeme McDowell, whose name hasn’t been mentioned in quite some time, will be one of the few tour veterans play this week to get a jump start on his 2016  PGA TOUR campaign.

The fantasy challenge this week will be trying to pick the diamonds in the rough (pun intended).  With so many new names and faces playing these early Fall Series events, you need to be able to uncover guys like Grillo and Kaufman who have given fantasy owners a huge boost so far this year.  This doesn’t necessarily mean you should to load up your roster with guys like Darron Stiles and Brett Stegmaier, but instead you need to get the inside scoop on who is trending this week and what names are the most appealing to draft.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week Russell Knox broke through for his first PGA TOUR title in Shanghai.  The win was an impressive one to say the least considering some of the powerhouse names in the WGC event field.   McIlroy, Johnson, and Spieth all looked good at times but ultimately none of these heavy favorites were able to string together four rounds good enough to beat Knox to the trophy.

Golf Channel on Instagram: “How does that first #PGATour victory taste Russell Knox?”

Golf Channel shared a post on Instagram: “How does that first #PGATour victory taste Russell Knox?”. Follow their account to see 22372 posts.

 
Our horse pick McIlroy finished T11 as did our super-sleeper pick Marc Leishman who was a steal at just $7,100 on DraftKings.

Even with Russell Knox’s surprising the fantasy world with his first ever WGC win our picks for the HSBC Champions still managed to finish the week with around $500,000 in total earnings bringing our four-week average for the new 2015-2016 season to $890,000.

The Field

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open winner Smylie Kaufman and last week’s champ Russell Knox will join Matt Kuchar and defending champion Charley Hoffman for this week’s event in Mexico.  Just about all of the PGA TOUR’s big guns will be sitting this one out as they take a much needed break after traveling around the world for last week’s HSBC WGC event.

Although they are not FedExCup point eligible events, we should start see the world’s top ranked pros return once again at The Hero World Challenge and Franklin Templeton Shootout as they look to tune up their games in early December.

This week, Matt Kuchar comes in as the highest ranked player in the field according to the Official World Golf Rankings (No. 16).  Interestingly enough, two players in the field (2010 champion Cameron Beckman and Chris Stroud) will be playing in their 9th consecutive OHL Classic at Mayakoba.

Overall we’ll see a decent sized field with a lot of little known players looking to make a name for themselves on the PGA TOUR, so fantasy fans are up for a real challenge putting together rosters this week.

The Course

El Camaleón GC measures in at 6,987 yards will play as a par 71 this week. “The Chameleon” is a remarkably designed golf course that navigates through three different kinds of landscapes including tropical jungle, dense mangroves, and beautiful sand-lined oceanfront.

The course was first designed by Greg Norman just over a decade ago with the TOUR making its first appearance here in 2007.  El Camaleón will be featured once again at next year’s World Amateur Team Championships.

This constantly changing course lives up to it’s “Chameleon” name presenting a number of unique challenges, a few of which we’ll highlight in our weekly fantasy notes and roster predictions segments below.

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Weather Forecast for Playa del Carmen, Mexico

There will be an 80% chance of rain throughout the week leaving the course very wet and slow.  Although the temperatures will be in the mid-80’s you can expect some delays and windy gusts blowing in off of the Riviera Maya.

That said, be sure to factor in players who perform well on slow, wet tracks when making your fantasy picks this week.

Last Year’s Results from the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Last year Charlie Hoffman ended a four year win-less drought after sealing the deal on Sunday with a strong final round 66 to overtake the charging Shawn Stefani.  Hoffman was trailing Stefani by one stroke after 12 holes and almost hit his drive into a hazard which would have padded Stefani’s lead, but Hoffman craftily recovered from the errant drive to make a remarkable birdie.

The tables then turned on Stefani who did find the hazard that Charlie narrowly avoided.  He went on to bogey the hole which opened the door for Hoffman as he went on to birdie 16 and eventually take a two-shot lead heading into 18.

It was Hoffman’s first win since the 2010 Deutsche Bank Championship.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hY-aRg7SZ8&end=159&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

 This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Sunday: 1:00 pm – 4:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Sunday: 1:00 pm – 4:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the OHL Classic this Week

The fantasy pickings are notoriously slow this week and there’s not a whole lot out there to choose from for the OHL Classic so we’re sticking with the 3 dollar entry into the $125,000 game hosted by DraftKings as your best bet at some decent fantasy action.

• PGA $125K BIRDIE [$125,000 GUARANTEED]: This event is without a doubt the biggest bang for your buck this week. For 3 bucks you can take a crack at the $10,000 first prize against a slimmer than usual field of fantasy participants.  With NFL running the fantasy show until January, you can expect this to be the best PGA game out there.  Come January, we expect the big games to big with a vengeance!

Side Tip: for those of you who like to bet players straight to win, but take a look at Bubba Watson’s odds to win the Taiheiyo Masters this week on Bodog.  He’s a +550 and could easily win in that “weak” field.  A hundred bucks on Bubba (with a win) earns you $5,500. Not a bad day’s pay if Bubba pulls through.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Last year’s low numbers proves that El Camaleón is definitely scorable.  We saw guys like Ken Duke drop a 63 in Round 2 along with more than a handful of 65s.  Hoffman closed out the victory with a great score of -17 last year in a field that averaged a tournament low of 69.954.  Not bad for a par 71 track.

This week we’re putting emphasis on scrambling with the wind and rain coming into Mexico.  There’s going to be guys missing targets left and right this week and the winner will most likely have to complete a large percentages of green side up-and-downs.  Last year’s field hit 66% GIR which ranked 25th among every course played on TOUR in 2014-15 so greens in regulation will be another focus for our fantasy selections this week.

Lastly, Par 3 scoring is another big stat for us this week.  This course ranked as the second easiest set of Par 3s on TOUR last year so players will have to score well on the short holes if they want to stay in contention.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 OHL CLassic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the OHL Classic

Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: NA GPFP: NA Salary:$11,700): With no wins and just seven top ten finishes Matt Kuchar had what some would consider a disappointing season last year, especially when compared to his phenomenal performance in 2013 but this week’s event will mark his first appearance at the OHL Classic since his T3 finish in 2008 as it looks as though Kuch is seeking a fresh and early start to 2016.  The reason we like him this week as our horse pick is due to his proven ability to win (especially against a weak field) coupled with the fact that he’s coming off a victory at the Fiji International about a month ago.  This could be a resurrection year for Kuchar  and he’s showing signs of that with six top 10s in last 10 starts.

(2015 Stats)

• GIR Rank: 85th
• Scrambling: 13th
• Par 3 Scoring: 126th

* Most Notable Stat: All Around Ranking: 9th

Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 99.50 GPFP: 79.60 Salary:$10,300): Bohn finally cooled off  a bit with his T39 at the Sanderson Farms last week but prior to that he notched a T3 (Frys.com) and T2 (Shriners).  On top of his winning ways in this year’s Fall Season he’s also a horse for the course here with Top 10 finishes in his last two attempts..

• GIR Rank: 18th
• Scrambling: 201st
• Par 3 Scoring: 22nd

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 4th

Patton Kizzire (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 112.75 GPFP: 90.20 Salary:$10,700): At $10,700 Kizzire is little more expensive than Bohn this week but you still should have enough salary room to put these two guys together for a solid one-two punch if you opt to leave Kuchar on the bench.  He reminds us Emiliano Grillo with his recent Web.com success (T5 Championship) followed by his T2 and T4 in his next two events.  This kid is ready for a breakthrough win and it come come in Mexico this week.

• GIR Rank: 48th
• Scrambling: 25th
• Par 3 Scoring: 11th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 1st

Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 87.17 GPFP: 91.53 Salary:$9,900): Steele is another clear favorite this week with such a hot start to the season and his price is certainly right given that he can be had for under $10k.  Brendan has always been a force in fantasy golf and he has the type of game to dominate and win multiple events.  Keep in mind that he’s coming into El Camaleón off a 3rd place finish in Malaysia and he finished T16 here in 2013.

• GIR Rank: 40th
• Scrambling: 232nd
• Par 3 Scoring: 99th

* Most Notable Stat: All Around Ranking: 1st

Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 32/1 FPPG: 79.00 GPFP: 63.20 Salary:$10,000): Knox is flying high and beaming with confidence in his hot putting stroke after his breakthrough win in Shanghai.  Prior to that he finished T21 in Malaysia and has posted a total of 10 (out of 14) sub-70 rounds so far this season.  Look for Russell’s name being thrown around plenty in 2016.

• GIR Rank: 13th
• Scrambling: 22nd
• Par 3 Scoring: 98th

* Most Notable Stat: Ball Striking: 7th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the OHL Classic

Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 111.75 GPFP: 89.40 Salary:$8,400): Cejka is off to a great start to his 2016 campaign with a T2 (Shriners) and a T17 (CIMB) already this season.  He has two top 20s at this event including a T16 in 2014 and he ranks second on TOUR so far this season in Scoring Average and the All-Around Ranking.  He’s a par-3 animal (a stat we’re factoring in heavily here at El Camaleón) and has a current FPPG of 111.75!  How can you not put him on your squad for just $8,400 this week.

• GIR Rank: 65th
• Scrambling: 7nd
• Par 3 Scoring: 4th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 2nd

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the OHL Classic

Carlos Ortiz (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 71.75 GPFP: 57.40 Salary:$7,500): Carlos is a true sleeper this week as the only time he’s ever cracked a top 10 was here in his home country on this exact course when he finished with a solid T9 last season.  Ortiz dominated his final three rounds in the 2015 installment of the OHL Classic and proved to know the course very well.  He’s priced pretty well this week at $7,500 and could make a solid addition to your roster.

• GIR Rank: 149th
• Scrambling: 146th
• Par 3 Scoring: 66th

* Most Notable Stat: Final Round Performance: 1st

Sample DraftKings Roster with Kuchar

Sample DraftKings Roster without Kuchar

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

• Rory McIlroy (T11) $106,167
• Bubba Watson (T35) $63,000
• Kevin Na (57th) $46,5000
• Emiliano Grillo (T35) $63,000
• Chris Wood (T51) $49,000

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

• Daniel Summerhays (T44) $52,000

Last Week’s Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

• Marc Leishman (T11) $106,167

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

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Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via @txemagolf on Instagram