Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 WGC-Cadillac Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 WGC-Cadillac Championship from Trump National Doral

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week the top 50 ranked players in the world will come together in South Beach to take on the revamped Trump Doral Blue Monster for the 2015 WGC-Cadillac Championship.  Players will be praying for better conditions than the tremendous wind gusts and rain they were forced to play through in 2014 when Trump debuted his renovated track.

The field of players could grow to as many as 70 this week.  Here is how eligibility will be determined (source: Wikipedia.org):

• Top 50 players from the Official World Golf Rankings (one week and two weeks prior to event)
• Top players from member tours’ money lists or orders of merit (from last complete season)
  • Top 30 PGA Tour FedEx Cup list (also top 10 from one week prior to event)
  • Top 20 European Tour (also top 10 from two weeks prior to event)
  • Top 2 each from Asian Tour, Japan Golf Tour, PGA Tour of Australasia, and Sunshine Tour

All eyes will be back on Rory McIlroy to see if he can rebound from a disappointing missed cut at PGA National.  Bubba Watson is also a clear favorite this week with two runner-up finishes in his last three visits to Doral—although he has never been victorious here.  Another standout this week will be defending champion Patrick Reed who is swinging a hot stick so far this season and look out for Dustin Johnson who owns a pair of top-5s in his past four visits to Doral.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Few, if any, could have predicted that #1 OWGR ranked Rory McIlroy would miss the cut while fellow Irishman and #257 OWGR ranked Padraig Harrington would emerge victorious at last week’s Honda Classic.  Although we were disappointed by his poor play, it’s hard to fault Rory missing the cut on one of the PGA TOUR’s hardest tracks during a rain filled week that saturated PGA National and pushed the event to a Monday finish.  Many of the world’s top players shared a similar fate with big names like Zach Johnson, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, and many others also missing the cut.

Despite losing our horse pick (McIlroy) our selections still wound up having a solid week helped by Patrick Reed (T7), Paul Casey (T3), and Brendan Steele (T11).  In total, we managed to finish the Honda with $676,845 in weekly fantasy earnings and the aforementioned 3-man combo earned our DraftKings team selections enough points to qualify players for the Super Masters Million Dollar Event!

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report Picks also fared well this week with 3 of the 4 making the cut and earning some solid fantasy points in the process (Donald T7, Harman T11, McGirt T22).  This report offers great “filler” picks, all of which come off 50/1 or higher odds to help Premium Members round out their salary cap teams.  This is crucial for standing apart and winning top prizes in any DraftKings, FantasyFeud, or VICTIV contest.

The Field

This week’s field will consist of World No.1 Rory McIlroy and the defending champion Patrick Reed, along with 50+ of best players in the game.  The field will include the Top 50 in OWGR with additional top money-winners from various world tours joining in the fun.

The total event lineup currently sits at 70 but that can change as the delayed conclusion of the Honda Classic might shake things up a bit.  Names like Streb, Bae, Hoffman, and (possibly) Hahn are likely to be added off the FedExCup top 10 list.

Of course, Tiger Woods will not be present this week, making it just the second time ever that he has failed to qualify for a WGC start.

Here is a tentative field for this week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship (note: with the Win, Padraig Harrington may also join the field group this week):

The Course

The TPC Blue Monster at Trump National Doral measures in at 7,528 yards and plays as a par 72.  Even before last year’s facelift, Doral, South Florida’s premier golf real estate, has consistently played as one of the toughest courses on TOUR year in and year out.  Donald Trump dumped $200 million into the upgrade last year, and in its inaugural tournament it ranked as the toughest course on TOUR outside of the majors.  Additionally, four holes on the Blue Monster ranked among last year’s 30 toughest holes in TOUR.  Combine those stats with the forecasted South Beach rain and wind gusts and we’re in for yet another tough test for the game’s elite.

Tee To Green: 18th hole at Trump Doral Blue Monster

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Weather Forecast for Miami, FL

The forecast this week calls for a couple of days of rain, but the kickoff round on Thursday should be quite pleasant with 83 degree weather and sunny skies.  Rain clouds are set to roll in on Friday and Saturday but Sunday’s finish should be warm, bright, and dry.

Rain or no rain, expect the scoring to remain low this week as it usually does on this tough Doral course.

2014 Results

Reed made a statement last year by overtaking Tiger Woods as the youngest winner of a WGC title (age 23) after a nail-biting finish over Bubba Watson and Jamie Donaldson.  The youngster led by four in the early part of the day and remained in control throughout the round.  Although he finished with an even-par (72) Reed still had enough to win by one-stroke.  It was Reed’s third victory in his previous 14 starts and with the win he became the fifth player since 1990 to win three PGA TOUR events before age 24.  The win also came with a bit of controversy when the confident Reed proclaimed himself to be one of the top five players in the world during a post round interview.  The comments seemed to create quite a bit of media buzz among fans, the press, and social media channels.  However, if Reed manages to keep up the elevated level of play we’ve seen from him over the past year, there’s a good chance we’ll be hearing only crickets from his critics.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 WGC-Cadillac Championship:

Patrick Reed holds on to win the Cadillac Championship | Highlights

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 12:00 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

When rain is in the forecast during an event held on the 3rd ranked hardest course on the PGA TOUR which is surrounded by nothing but water and wind gusts, fantasy advice is a difficult thing to offer.  Having said that, we want to offer some real in-depth analysis of past performance on this track (2014 in particular since that the the first year of the renovation) and combine that with some crucial stats. Keep in mind that -4 got the job done last year on this track and it is a no-cut event, so everyone will be around on the weekend unless they pull a Tiger and bail out mid-round.  Let’s break down the stats for the Blue Monster:

• Greens in Regulation:  the top player in last year’s field averaged 70.3% in GIR on the Blue Monster for the week which is not all that bad. The top player year-to-date on TOUR sits at 74%.    With all the water surrounding the track, this is stat we’ll pay most attention too this week.
• Driving Accuracy:  Billy Horschel’s 66% Driving Accuracy was the top percentage in this category last year at Doral, which is 10 percentage points below the top guy on TOUR this year.  Something tells us getting of the tee is tough here and we’ll factor that in as well.
• Putting:  While putting isn’t easy anywhere on TOUR, the Blue Monster tends to favor those who can find the cup easier then others.  We looked at last year’s putting stats and it is interesting to see where those names finished up in the standings.

Advice of the Week:  Last week’s Honda proved to us all that you do not need to break the bank when crafting a solid salary cap team. Heck, last week in one of the leagues we entered, nobody in the Top 30 finishers had Padraig Harrington on their team.  In fact, Harrington (1), Berger (P2), and Poulter (T3) all combined for an average salary cap price tag of $7,000.  If you had all three on your team, you’ll finish Top 5 every single time.  So, with that said, yes, we may have our horse pick of the week, but utilize our sleepers and lower priced names and is okay to leave a $12,000 player off your roster, because in this game, the low priced “Harrington or Berger” may just surprise us all and give you the edge.

Where to Play this Week

Once again DraftKings continues to be the dominant leader in prize pools for all weekly fantasy sports games.  This week we particularly love our chances in the PGA Micro Millions $50K Mini Event.  It’s a cheap $2 entry event with places paid up to 5,750.  Although a larger entry amount, odds are it wont come close to its capacity and you could be only playing against less then 10,000.

Don’t forget to reserve your seat in the $1 million dollar first prize Masters Event.  You can secure it by entering  with $20 today or try to win your way in through any of the various qualifiers.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 15/1): The king of fantasy points currently leads the pack on most week-to-week fantasy leagues with 106.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG).  Day is sitting at a major discount this week at only $10,900 and can easily be considered a favorite to win.  He’s been consistent, which has helped him notch a win already this year and the wrist is feeling good again.  He’s taken some time off which worries us a bit, but we think his game will pick right back up.  Simply put, Day has a great game for this course where his shot-shaping and long ball could help him win.  He comes in ranked first in both GIR and the All-Around and he’s dirty from the fairway.  If his tee-game is on, this could be Jay-Day’s week.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 18/1): Walker, Scott, and DJ are heavy candidates for the 2-slot this week as they all fall within the high $10,000 range.  Pick’em players should consider all three if their league rules allow for it.  But at this price, we like the young Texas kid this week.  Spieth has been turning up the dial so far this year on the putting green, an area which has hampered him in the past.  He currently ranks 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and has found himself within the Top 7 knocking on the door three times so far in 2015.
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 22/1): Like we’ll say for Paul Casey, don’t get in the way of a speeding train and Reed is arguably one of the hottest players on TOUR.  Given all this recent success we’re actually quite unsure why his cost isn’t much higher this week.  Patrick is a steal at $10,700 and we can’t ignore giving him another look despite his inability to shut the door after the Bear Trap tripped him up on Monday.  Reed can scramble and is money in the bunker (first on TOUR in sand saves) which will help him out at Doral.   Sitting at third in Scrambling and carrying a load of momentum into Doral we simply have no hesitation backing up Reed again for another week.
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 33/1): We debated for a long time about putting Koepka or Matsuyama in the $8,500 arena but Hideki stood out becasuse he comes in with four Top-4 finishes since winning an event in Phoenix (Nov 2014).  He ranks second on TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green with 26 measured rounds while the guy in front of him is Will McKenzie with only 6 rounds measured for the stat.  To earn that rank in 26 rounds tells you something about a player and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him win a major this year.  He could surprise the world this week and win this.
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 45/1): Like Reed, Casey comes in full of momentum and we feel that his play at PGA National can transition over to the Monster without a problem.  He just snuck into the field Monday with his T3 finish at the Honda Classic and he finished P2 the week before at Riviera.  His price tag should be $800-$1000 more this week and we’re shocked it’s at only $7,900.  Casey co-led the field last week in greens in regulation and we feel he can carry that stat down to Miami.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Jaime Donaldson (Golficity Odds 50/1): Donaldson hasn’t had much success on U.S. soil but as a sleeper pick this week we think his $7,100 is a great value.  Jaime knows the track well as he finished T2 last year and sixth at PGA National on Monday which has a lot of the same features as Doral.  Most people are touting J.B. Holmes which isn’t a bad idea, but we like Donaldson a little better this week.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 66/1): Palmer has been fading lately after coming out to such a hot start, but his long-ball draw hitting ability can get him up the leaderboard this week.  He’s usually an expensive pick, but given the stacked field Palmer will only run you $7,000 this week, which is a bargain to say the least.  He’s 5/5 this year in cuts made and he ranks 10th on the DraftKings FPPG list with 86.3.

Bonus Roster Suggestion for the WGC-Cadillac Championship

For an added bonus, here’s an idea for a salary cap line-up you could run with this week using our picks and throwing in one extra player to round it out:

• Day ($10,900)
• Matsuyama ($8600)
• Casey ($7,900)
• Donaldson ($7,100)
• Palmer ($7,000)
• Keopka ($8,300) – Great addition at this price with an average (FPPG) of 96.9 which ranks him second in all DraftKings leagues.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Honda Classic

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 7/2): MC ($0)
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 15/1): MC ($0)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 28/1): T25 ($46,563)
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 35/1): T7 ($183,762)
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 50/1): T3 ($317,200)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Honda Classic

• Brendan Steele (66/1):  T11 ($129,320)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Honda Classic

• Shawn Stefani (Golficity Odds 75/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 14 (98 picks – 7 per event).
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $12,590,376 ($899,312 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 28 out of 98 picks (28.57%).
• Total Top 3s: 14 out of 98 picks (14.29%).
• Runner-Up Finishes: 5 in 14 events (35.71%).
• Total Winners Picked: 2 in 14 events (14.29%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 16 out of 98 players picked (83.67% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for 2015 WGC-Cadillac Championship with other Premium Members.

Want even more fantasy golf picks and predictions for this week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship?  Check out this week’s Tuesday Sleeper Report for more fantasy golf sleepers and long shots to add to your roster.

Cover Photo by Cameron Flanders on Flickr