Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

We have two possibilities of a three-peat this week:  Matt Every could go back-to-back-to-back at Arnie’s place or Adam Scott could win his third event in three starts in Florida.  Either would make for quite an exciting event at Bay Hill this week.

To say Adam Scott is a on a tear would be an understatement. Some are already calling the former Masters champ a clear favorite for Augusta, but we’re not convinced of that just yet.  With a second place finish at Riviera followed by wins at the Honda Classic and WGC-Cadillac Championship, Scott has proven that even with the short putter he can regain his dominance.  In fact, no player has won three legs of the Florida Swing in the same year and this might the best chance at it we’ll ever see.

Meanwhile on the other side of the coin, we have returning back-to-back champ Matt Every, who will try to become the first guy since Steve Stricker (2011) to three-peat an event.  What’s even cooler about this accomplishment, if successful, is that the first three wins of his career would be a three-peat from the same event. We’re sure King Arnie would enjoy that!

We have a more star-studded lineup this week so picks will be a little tougher, but we’re thinking about going back to the double-horse pick strategy which fared so well at the WGC two weeks ago where we finished 1-2-3.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Unfortunately there were no winners for us last week and our best finish was Charles Howell’s T5 ($268,400).  In total, six of our seven picks made the cut and we banked a total of $517,381 in total weekly purse earnings.  With the 17th event of the season in the books we have successfully earned a total of $18,266,157 which still keeps us above the $1 million per week mark.

It looks like Spieth came on strong a little late, finishing one stroke behind Stenson (who was our other option for the Horse Pick).  Willett finished just under Reed and no one saw Schwartzel putting up that putting display on Sunday.

Just to recap, our fantasy pick winners year-to-date include:

1. Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
2. Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
3. Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
4. Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
5. Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
6. Bubba Watson (Northern Trust Open)
7. Adam Scott (WGC Cadillac Championship)

** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).

The 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational Field

This week’s field will contain 77 players returning from last week’s Valspar, but all eyes will be on the top-two salaried players this week; those being Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy.  There’s no question that picking one over the other is a must this week because unfortunately you can’t have both in a salary cap fantasy league.  Some may even argue that it’s best not to pick either and load up your roster with two strong mid-tier picks instead of going too top-heavy this week.

With more of the OWGR top names in the field this week (as compared to last week) here are some names that fit the bill for horse pick(s) this week:

The mid-tier ($8,600 – $10,400) will contain a handful of the following names, and it’s not impossible to pick up two (low) names here in tandem with your horse pick.

The low-tier ($7,700 – $8,400) and sleepers will then help you round out your rosters.  To help sort all this out this week we’ll provide our Premium Members with two sample DraftKings lineups.  One with an expensive horse pick and one without.

This Week’s Course Overview

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a long and tricky course that will measure in at 7,419 yards and play as a par 72 this week.

Arnold Palmer proclaimed this track as the “best course in Florida” when he first landed here in 1965.  After falling in love with the resort and course, Arnie ended up buying the place and the TOUR shortly arrived in 1979.  Similar to “The Bear Trap” and “The Snake Pit,” Bay Hill has a tough closing three holes which have been known to make or break the event.

We’ll cover more about the strategies for winning on this course in our Fantasy Notes section below.

A photo posted by Jeff Dailey (@jeff_dai1ey) on Mar 14, 2016 at 8:45am PDT

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Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL

To make your fantasy golf selections even harder this week, the weather forecast is calling for unpredictable PM thunderstorms (typical of Florida weather for this time of year) during rounds 2, 3 and 4.  Winds should pick up as well which will make this water-riddled course even tougher to navigate.  The temperatures however will be comfortably in the mid-80’s for the week.

Last Year’s Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Last year it was a come from behind victory for Matt Every as the two-time PGA TOUR winner notched his second Arnold Palmer Invitational win.  It all came down to an 18-footer for birdie which he drained on the 72nd hole to win by one-stroke over Henrik Stenson.

In the end Every carded a 6-under 66, which matched the fourth round low score that Sunday.  In 2014 it was more of the same as Every won his first PGA TOUR event here after overcoming a 4-shot deficit.  With last year’s win, he joined the short list of just Loren Roberts and Tiger Woods as the only three players to go back-to-back at Bay Hill.

For more here’s a recap of last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational:

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWDoE4FWjtY&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Mar 17, 2016) – Friday (Mar 18, 2016) 2 pm – 6 pm (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (Mar 19, 2016) 12 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel),  2:30 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)
  • Sunday (Mar 20, 2016) 12 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel),  2:30 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)

• PGA TOUR LIVE
  • Thursday (Mar 17, 2016)) – Friday (Mar 18, 2016)): 7:30 am – 3 pm EST (Featured Groups), 3 pm – 6pm (Featured Holes)
  • Saturday (Mar 19, 2016)) – Sunday(Mar 20, 2016)): 10:00 am – 6 pm EST (Featured Holes)
  • Download the iOS app here to view on mobile devices.

• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week

Fantasy golf is really gearing up as we’re now less than four weeks away from the first multi-million dollar contest of the season.  You heard that right, this year DraftKings is returning with a $4 million contest for the Masters this April.  Until then, here are just a few fantasy golf contests we like this week:

• PGA $400K SIGNATURE HOLE [$100K TO 1ST]: The $100,000 1st prize game is back and it looks like things are beginning to heat up on DraftKings as we creep a little closer to Masters week.  This game is pretty straight forward as it will pay the top 2955 places and it caps the field to 13,900 players (but chances are we won’t see that many entries this week).  Ultimately this is a $33 entry game with some really nice prizes if you land in the Top 10.

• No Halftime Heads-Up Match-Ups: This week we want to introduce you to a new way to play heads-up fantasy golf.  No Halftime has created a way for fantasy lovers to play one golfer versus another without salaries or rosters.  For example, you can pick Bubba Watson in Round 1 versus J.B. Holmes does in Round 2.  It’s really that simple.  You can wager as little as $5 per match or up to $100.  Even better, you can challenge a buddy in a private league or create your own public challenge.  We’re loving this new app so far and we’ve worked out a special deal for Golficity readers where you can use promo code GOLF at signup and you’ll get a $10 deposit bonus.  Download the iOS app here to get started.  No Halftime is a great way to keep the action going well after your rosters have locked come Thursday morning.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Like Copperhead and Doral weren’t hard enough!  The PGA TOUR’s fatigued players now have to traverse almost 7,500 yards on a course that offers up some easy ‘gimmies’ and of course, a handful of trouble.  First let’s talk about the bad:  Bay Hill is a long course and there are many threats of water hazards and high winds—and this week, throw forecasted rain into the mix.

The good thing about Bay Hill is that most players have proven that it’s not difficult to hit greens and stay in the fairway here.  Believe it or not, this course averaged about 70% in driving accuracy and 68% in GIR.  This might be the easiest track on the Florida swing and it has been called the third-easiest par 72 on TOUR.

With all that said, we’re locking in on these key stats this week:

• GIR
• Scrambling
• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Total
• Putting Average

Good luck this week!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Horse Pick: Scott, Stenson, or McIlroy?

Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 5/1 FPPG: 105.6 GPFP: 136.19 Salary: $11,700): Vegas has Rory at 5/1 and Scott at 7/1 which is fair, but we feel its a coin flip either way you slice it.  They both have their strengths (Rory = Power, Scott = Putting) but we like the lower price tag and the momentum train coming on the back of Adam Scott here.  And we’re not planning on jumping on the Stenson bandwagon just yet.  In regards to Scott, let’s talk about how hot this guy has been.  In case you missed it, the reemergence of Adam Scott has begun, and so far he has two wins, two second place finishes, and he’s dominating nearly every statistic on TOUR.  Regardless of him being listed as one of the heavy favorites this week (and for good reason) we’re picking Scott this week even with his $11,700 price tag and love his chances against this field.  Heck, this guy may end up becoming a huge Masters pick in just a few weeks.

• Scrambling: 97th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 6th
• Driving Distance: 9th
• Putting Average: 13th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 1st

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Total: 1st

Mid-Tier ($8,600-$10,400): Kuchar, Casey, and/or Moore?

Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 22/1 FPPG: 77.86 GPFP: 87.98 Salary:$10,800): Kuch and Moore are both on the 33/1 line in Vegas which tells us this one is too close to call.  Moore played very well last week (3rd) but that by itself not enough to buy him this week in our opinion.  We dug a bit deeper and found out that he banked a T4 here in 2012 and comes into this week ranked second in par-3 scoring, which is a solid stat to own at Bay Hill.  Also don’t forget that Moore already owns four Top 10s in seven starts this season.  We’re willing to sacrifice distance for a solid putter this week and Ryan is our guy in this second slot.

• Scrambling: 25th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 66th
• Driving Distance: 141st
• Putting Average: 16th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 18th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Total: 11th

Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 28/1 FPPG: 73.93 GPFP: 85.02 Salary: $8,700): Despite the fact that some of our fantasy stat predictors were pointing towards Kisner this week, we opted to go with our gut, plus more power at a lower cost.  It looks like Casey is settling into PGA TOUR life pretty well and he showed signs of life two weeks back at Doral with a solo 7th finish.  He’s an excellent ball striker with a knack for hitting greens and making big putts and he looks real attractive on the Vegas lines at 40/1.

• Scrambling: 144th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 10th
• Driving Distance: 53rd
• Putting Average: 116th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 54th

* Most Notable Stat: Ball Striking: 9th

Low Tier ($7,700 – $8,400): Howell III, Steele, and/or Woodland?

Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 74.29 GPFP: 86.18 Salary: $8,000): We still like the CH3 story this week with no reasons to think otherwise (we’ll have more on him in our Tuesday Sleeper Report as well).  Howell started the season off hot and at one point he went on a stretch of seven consecutive Top 17 or better finishes before cooling off for three weeks.  We feel he’s righted the ship after his T5 last week at the Valspar and is ready to out-perform his $8k price tag this week.

• Scrambling: 25th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 53rd
• Driving Distance: 25th
• Putting Average: 53rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 58th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 14th

Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 71.22 GPFP: 86.18 Salary: $7,700): Steele has quietly made five cuts in a row with two Top 17 finishes (T14 best).  He’s also made two consecutive cuts here with a T35 last year and T20 in 2014.  Although he’s not the sexiest pick it goes without saying that Steele is a solid fantasy player who usually adds some quality fantasy points to our squads.  As far as key stats go this week, Brendan has power off of the tee and can hit plenty of greens in regulation.  He also ranks 5th in the All-Around which proves that he can hang with the big guns.

• Scrambling: 156th
• Greens-In-Regulation:37th
• Driving Distance: 24th
• Putting Average: 44th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 25th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around: 5th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 73.50 GPFP: 91.88 Salary: $7,700): Like Steele, Palmer also comes in at 80/1 on the Vegas lines and he shares a similar strength…power.  If you like Steele, you almost have to like Palmer as well this week with his ability to grab plenty of distance off of the tee (5th in Driving Distance).  He comes into Bay Hill on the heels of seven consecutive cuts made but he hasn’t been able to crack the Top 10 this season in his eight tries.  However, we like his chances to do that this week and at $7,700 he’s priced right for the job.

• Scrambling: 161st
• Greens-In-Regulation: 35th
• Driving Distance: 5th
• Putting Average: 58th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 33rd

* Most Notable Stat:  All-Around: 6th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 85/1 FPPG: 58.67 GPFP: 62.19 Salary: $7,400): It doesn’t look like we can offer much help in the sub-$7,000 range for this week’s top two sleeper selections but our Tuesday Sleeper Report will touch on those low-roster selections.  Even at $7,400 Scott Brown is a solid pick this week and most top analysts agree.  He comes in having finished in the Top 10 in both of his Florida swing starts.  In fact, last week at the Valspar, Brown lead the field in strokes gained putting and the all-around.  He’s already cracked a Top 15 here in 2013 which was his debut year at Bay Hill.  We agree that his stats may look ugly, but Brown is trending in the right direction and has the game to jump out and surprise people this week.

• Scrambling: 95th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 141st
• Driving Distance: 92nd
• Putting Average: 139th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 62nd

* Most Notable Stat:  Total Driving: 21st

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week.

Sample DraftKings Roster With Scott

Sample DraftKings Roster Without Scott

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 3/2) T18 ($88,450)
• Danny Willett (Golficity Odds 18/1) T22 ($52,959)
• Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 26/1) T22 ($52,959)
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 42/1) T42 ($19,309)
• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 48/1) T5 ($268,400)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Patton Kizzire (Golficity Odds 75/1) T33 ($33,304)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Patrick Rodgers (Golficity Odds 90/1) MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”13.45%” bar_text=”16 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”23.53%” bar_text=”28 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”41.18%” bar_text=”7 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Sleeper Report Winners Picked” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”1 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”23.53%” bar_text=”4 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.43″ bar_text=”85 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked (TBD)” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 0 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr