Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge

2016 CareerBuilder Challenge Preview

Our Salary-Cap Sleeper Pick from last week was none other than Fabian Gomez, and his impressive win makes for a clean 2-0 sweep for us on the short Hawaiian swing.  It will be sad to see the lush Hawaiian backdrops disappear from our TV screens as the PGA TOUR says goodbye to the islands and hello to California.

Hawaii you will be missed but more importantly our Premium Members are heading into another work week with a fist full of cash from DraftKings and a stellar lead in their season-long leagues.  Let’s breakdown what to expect at La Quinta this week before recapping our Hawaiian triumph.

A lot of names in the field this week will be returning for a chance to be a two-time winner this season including Smylie Kaufman and Peter Malnati.  This week’s field looks a little like that of the Sony Open last week with a packed house of newcomers and very few Tour-leading studs.  Fans may however be happy to see Phil Mickelson back in the field this week after a long break following the President’s Cup.  Mickelson does like to win on the West as his records proves it with 17 wins in Cali or Arizona.

With the field consisting primarily of ‘B-list’ players this week, you’re going to need a solid strategy in place to have any sort of a chance in fantasy this week.  We’ll help shed some light and who we think will be a must-have on your roster along with our picks for the best possible sleepers to offer your roster a boost, just like Gomez did for us last week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Our fantasy experts are currently firing on all cylinders with back-to-back weeks boasting winners picked (Spieth, Gomez) and now a 2015-2016 season win record of 4-out-of-9.  Not a bad way to kick off a season in fantasy golf, huh?

Golf Channel on Instagram: “Fabian Gomez’s streak of 7 straight birdies (Holes 6-12) fell just one shy of the #PGATour record for a final round.”

Golf Channel shared a post on Instagram: “Fabian Gomez’s streak of 7 straight birdies (Holes 6-12) fell just one shy of the #PGATour record for a final round.”. Follow their account to see 22387 posts.

With Gomez (1st) and our horse pick Kisner (T5) in our picks last week, our selections ended up making 5 of 7 cuts for a total weekly fantasy earnings of $1,364,682.

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report contained Zac Blair at 100/1 Vegas odds with a great explanation why he should make your roster and he certainly didn’t disappoint anyone who picked him after he put up a solid 3rd place finish.

Here’s a breakdown of how we fared in each fantasy tier:

Horse Pick: Jimmy Walker, Adam Scott, or Kevin Kisner?

Looks like we might the right pick here going with Kisner in the top spot.  His T5 finish earned a ton of fantasy points over the two other “favorites” as Jimmy Walker finished T13 and Adam Scott ended his week in a disappointing tie for 56th.

Mid-Tier Pick I: Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Justin Thomas?

Unfortunately we banked on Justin Thomas’ long stick to overcome last week’s short course and in the end he just couldn’t get moving.  JT ended up missing the cut as Kuchar and Johnson finished T13 and T9 respectively.

The Rest of the Pack

Making the move to pick Henley over Snedeker is our only regret from last week but sticking to our gut and grabbing Gomez  (1st) over Jerry Kelly (T9) proved to be the deciding factor for ringing the DraftKings cash register.

By the way, here are the two sample DraftKings rosters we advised for our members last week.  Notice how Gomez was a must have last week?

That’s right, Fabian Gomez provided an incredible bang for your buck as he picked up the win with a mere $7,200 price tag.

The 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge Field

California hometown hero Phil Mickelson will be the spotlight player of the week and he’s come in as the 2002 and 2004 champion.  Phil however will not be the likely favorite this week as those honors should go to Zach Johnson as he links up with his President’s Cup teammate and defending CareerBuilder Challenge Champ, Bill Haas.

Patrick Reed, who put on a clinic in Maui two weeks ago, comes in as the highest ranked player in the OGWR at No. 10.  He should also fetch a hefty price-tag as most view him to be a solid pick this week.

For more here is the full field for this week’s CareerBuilder Challenge.

The Course

The TPC Stadium Course at PGA West measures in at 7,113 yards and will play as a par 72 this week.  This is yet another Pete Dye gem which combines a rugged desert landscape with crisp green fairways.

In true Pete Dye fashion this course was once dubbed as being ‘too tough for PGA TOUR pros’  but still sits on the schedule of a long season.  Dye stayed very consistent to his nature here with deep bunkers and elevated greens that always ensure that there’s plenty that can get you into trouble—not to mention water hazards and rocks.

This one certainly won’t be as easy as the Hawaiian course we just witnessed.

Waldorf Astoria on Instagram: “Giving guests access to the PGA Golf Academy and five instructors who have been named the best in the state of California by @GolfDigest, @LaQuintaResort can proudly say that they offer some of the finest golf instruction in the world. Come see for yourself! #Golf #PGAWest #LaQuinta”

Waldorf Astoria shared a post on Instagram: “Giving guests access to the PGA Golf Academy and five instructors who have been named the best in the state of California by @GolfDigest, @LaQuintaResort can proudly say that they offer some of the finest golf instruction in the world. Come see for yourself!

[gard group=’3′]

Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA

Well it won’t look like Hawaii anymore, but this week’s tournament is calling for more beautiful weather with mid to upper 70s temperatures and 0% chance of rain all week.  Best of all, we can look for very low winds which should help keep scores down on this difficult track.

Last Year’s Results from the Humana Challenge

In last year’s prediction segment—then called the Humana Challenge—we had an impressive three Top 10s with Kuchar (T2), Thomas (T7), and Palmer (T10) on our squad.  Although they all played well none of these guys had the steam required to keep up with the hot hand of Bill Haas.

On one shot, Billy had to come out of the sand with the ball at nearly at his waist.  He connected an 8-iron and advanced the ball the fairway while escaping the out-of-bounds and water hazard.  After he knocked his approach shot on the green, Haas 2-putt for the victory.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hie_K5oVFZw&end=214&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Jan 21, 2016) – Sunday (Jan 24, 2016): 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)

• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM
  • Thursday (Jan 21, 2016) – Friday (Jan 22, 2016): 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday (January 23, 2016) – Sunday (Jan 24, 2016): 2:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST

• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the CareerBuilder Challenge this Week

Looks like things over at DraftKings are really starting to heat up.  The popular weekly fantasy website has announced their upcoming January Jams contest which you can start qualifying for with as little as 2-bucks per lineup.  There will be one winner in a field of about 57 players and that winner will receive a $100 entry ticket into a huge game coming soon (no details have been released).

In the mean time, if you’re looking for a regular game this week, try these:

• PGA $200K BIRDIE [$200,000 GUARANTEED]: As usual, DK will host its $3 entry event with $15K going to the winner.  The field will be the largest all week in PGA Fantasy Sports with 76.6K players available to fit in the game.  We’d consider paying a little extra to reduce the field.

• PGA $120K FAIRWAY [$120,000 GUARANTEED]: For 24 more dollars you can hop into this league and cut your max field down to 5100 players with a first prize of $20,000.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge

Did we mention that out of the 9 events this season, we’ve picked the winner 44.44% of the time?  That said, it should come as no surprise that we won’t be changing our winning strategy this week.

One difference to take note of however is the fact that the fairways here not as wide as some of the courses in the past few weeks, so tee shot precision will be more in focus this week.  Generally speaking accuracy from tee-to-green will be a significant indicator of who will do well here at PGA West.  Also look for proximity to the hole and birdie conversion rates to be key stats for this week’s CareerBuilder Challenge.

Although the course will be difficult the weather is forecasted to be perfect so these guys should be able to light at least a few sparks this week.

Remember, like last week, with not a lot of OWGR top names in the field, sleeper picks will be the key to success this week.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Career Builder Challenge

(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)

Horse Pick:  Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, or Zach Johnson?

Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 7/1 FPPG: 120.30 GPFP: 120.08 Salary:$12,400): Johnson fared well at Waialae despite breaking in his new equipment—if you haven’t heard, Zach completely switched club manufactures to Parson Xtreme Golf and has publicly said that the transition is a tough one.  Kuch also put on a nice display in Hawaii last week but we don’t see his game transitioning over to this desert layout.  For most Reed will be the clear favorite this week and we agree enough to recommend him as your horse pick.  His game looked on point in Maui and he comes in with six straight (official) top 10s including that solo second at Kapalua.  Keep in mind that Reed also won this event in 2014 and he still owns the tournament record at 28-under (260).  This boy can hunt down greens and might be the best scrambler on TOUR so far this season, both of which are important stats for this tough Dye designed course—he pretty much owns them both (GIR 2nd, Scrambling 1st)

• GIR Rank: 2nd
• Scrambling: 1st
• Putting Average: 63rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 11th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes-Gained: Total: 2nd

Mid-Tier Pick I: Ryan Palmer, Jason Bohn, or Bill Haas?

Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 105.25 GPFP: 84.20 Salary: $10,100): Yes, you could debate the possibility that Bill Haas is going to turn it up again and run back-to-back this year (and you’d have a solid point), but we like Bohn much better in this spot.  So far this season Jason has managed to bank three Top 3’s and his FPPG has skyrocketed due to his recent hot streak.  He’s pretty accurate off the tee (29th/Driving Accuracy) and ranks 2nd in scoring average.  This is Jason’s eighth appearance and his best finish was T22 (2008) but his recent momentum should help carry him much higher this week.  Palmer is also an excellent choice in this spot this week but go with Bohn and you’ll free up $900 in salary-cap money to round out our sleepers.

• GIR Rank: 31st
• Scrambling: 133rd
• Putting Average: 20th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 12th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 2nd

Mid-Tier Pick II: Leishman or Dufner?

Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 76.60 GPFP: 61.28 Salary: $9,800): Tough call here because Jason Dufner’s play can be erratic and he has caused more than one fantasy owner to kick himself for choosing him come Sunday.  However, Duf is showing consistency as of late and we all know he has the ability to beat any field when his game is on.  Although he saw a huge slide in OWGR from a high of No. 10 in 2013 to his current No. 120 spot Dufner seems to be in a better place professionally and personally since his divorce.  He’s recently lost weight, is now in great shape, and his golf game is starting to show the benefits of both.  Jason has two T9s in his last two starts and he seemed to really slow his tempo down in his golf swing.  He could make some noise this week if his putter makes the trip with him.

• GIR Rank: 53rd
• Scrambling: 164th
• Putting Average: 86th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 16th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 16th

Low Tier Picks (2):  Lingmerth, Blair, and/or Henley?

David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 79.50 GPFP: 80.00 Salary: $8,500): We are a little disappointed (bordering on disgusted) by Henley’s play as of late so we’re going to leave him on the bench this week.  Lingmerth is a guy who’s trending in the right direction right now with Top 15s in his last three starts.  He lost in a playoff here in 2013 after carding a career-low 62 which shows he can perform well at this event.  His overall putting average is ranked 5th on TOUR and if that keeps up look for David to post some nice scores this week.

• GIR Rank: 149th
• Scrambling: 94th
• Putting Average: 110th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 60th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 37th

Zac Blair (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG:91.80 GPFP: 118.46 Salary: $8,300): Remember the guy last week whose pre-shot routine looked like a golfer strung out on coffee?  Thats was Zac Blair, and he put up quite a performance.  If he can repeat the very same putting display as last week, he could be a contender again at this week’s CareerBuilder Challenge.  Sometimes guys stay hot for a while before cooling off and we’re going to jump on the Blair train until it looks to be running out of steam.  Our only concern is that he really struggles recording GIRs.

• GIR Rank: 216th
• Scrambling: 18th
• Putting Average: 167th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 102nd

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 65th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge

Si Woo Kim (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 67.6 GPFP: 68.26 Salary: $7,400): Gomez was priced at $7,200 last week and look what happened there.  Kim was in the mix for most of the weekend at the Sony and has all the skills needed to have a breakout round like we saw from Gomez.  This is his event debut but he comes in fresh off his best career finish (4th) last week which was his fourth top 25 of season.  Kim also ranks 7th in Total Driving which as mentioned earlier will be a key stat here with guys shooting at more narrow fairways.

• GIR Rank: 144th
• Scrambling: 41st
• Putting Average: 112th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 31st

* Most Notable Stat:  Total Driving: 7th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge

Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG: 68.50 GPFP: 87.00 Salary: $7,200): Before you scratch your head and say, “who?” just hear us out.  In his last two appearances Lovemark finished T9 at the RSM and T7 at the Sony.  He currently owns a ridiculous scoring average of 67.25 and has sleeper written all over him this week.  At $7,200 you can stick him on at least one of your rosters and still have plenty of room for one of the big guns at the top.

• GIR Rank: 131st
• Scrambling: 54th
• Putting Average: 191st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 25th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Distance: 14th

Sample DraftKings Roster Suggestion with Reed

Sample DraftKings Roster Suggestion without Reed

[/membership]

Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open

• Kevin Kisner (Golficity Odds 10/1) T5 ($220,400)
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 16/1) MC
• Russell Henley (Golficity Odds 22/1) MC
• Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 35/1) T13 ($77,604)
• Tony Finau (Golficity Odds 48/1_ T64 ($12,180)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Sony Open

• Peter Malnati (Golficity Odds 50/1) MDF ($10,498)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Sony Open

• Fabian Gomez (Golficity Odds 66/1) WINNER ($1,044,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”16.67%” bar_text=”10 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”28.30%” bar_text=”17 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”44.44%” bar_text=”4 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Sleeper Report Winners Picked” percent=”11.11%” bar_text=”1 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”22.22%” bar_text=”2 out of 9 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”83.33%” bar_text=”50 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked (TBD)” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 0 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge with other Premium Members.

---

Cover Photo via Flickr