Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Preview

Just one more stop before golf’s next Major and fantasy players every will grind out one more week before the big Millionaire Maker game kicks off on DraftKings.  That said, all eyes will be on DJ this week as we all continue to scratch our heads and wonder, ‘will this guy ever be a closer again?’  Or better yet, ‘will he learn how to drop putts outside of 10 feet?’  Needless to say, we’re highlighting Dustin since all fantasy players will be drooling over him as a horse pick this week, but we’re simply unsure at this point if he’s ready to fill those big salary shoes.  Regardless, let’s break down the stats a bit before jumping to any conclusions—more on that in a minute.

Johnson hasn’t won since that devastating three-putt at last year’s U.S. Open, so now we’ll have to wait and see if he has what it takes to build some momentum on a course he’s had some great success on.

Another player to keep an eye on this week is Phil Mickelson.  He’s been in contention here in each of the last three years and his game has sharply improved over the last few weeks.  The veteran lefty is looking like the Phil of old and he could very well be a great pick this week with Oakmont right around the corner.

Last year’s winner Fabian Gomez will also be a favorite among fantasy players this week not because of his win here but because of his recent and trending play.  Vegas has him high up on the boards along with another solid pick in Ryan Palmer, who almost won at Colonial two weeks ago.  We’ll break down in our Picks Segment below whether or not any of these four make our roster this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

It goes without saying that not many fans and fantasy players saw Willie McGirt coming out on top last week, especially with so many studs in the lineup.  His impressive win Memorial Tournament win is not one that will soon be forgotten.

Last week we offered our Premium Members three sample DraftKings rosters with varying horse-picks leading their respective squads.  Two if those rosters featured Matt Kuchar who remained in contention until the final holes and certainly helped us cash in nicely.  Our highest performing roster included Kuchar (T4), Reifers (T20), and Hearn (T27) who combined for over 90 fantasy points.  Best of all, both Hearn and Reifers had an average salary of about $7,000 leaving plenty of room at the top for some bigger names.

Last Week’s Sleeper Report Fantasy Results

Three of five selections from our Tuesday Sleeper Report made the cut with Tony Finau leading the pack finishing at T11 and earning well over 95 fantasy points in the process.  As with all of our Tuesday sleeper selections, Finau came into the week at 50/1 or greater Vegas odds and was a strong boost to rosters this week.

This week you’ll need a solid core of 2-3 low priced sleepers to make some real waves and last week we proved that those are the names that will put you in the winner’s circle.

Last Week’s European Tour Fantasy Results

Overall it wasn’t a bad finish at the Nordea Masters as our Horse Pick Henrik Stenson rallied on Day 4 to finish T4 along with our sleeper selection Raphael Jacquelin, who finished T8.  Both these picks racked up over 100 fantasy points last week and even if you didn’t start the unlikely winner Fitzpatrick, chances are with both of these names you finished up very nicely.

The 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic Field

Compared to last week’s Memorial the field isn’t as stacked as last week so you won’t have to pick between the OWGR big three—not to mention Fowler, Bubba, and a handful of others.

As mentioned earlier the top dog this week (by no small margin) should be Dustin Johnson, as DJ is a past winner here (2012) and easily the longest hitter in the field.  But, is he worth the hefty $12,800 DraftKings price tag?

The next highest priced player in this week’s field is Phil Mickelson who comes in at $11,300 followed by names like Brooks Koepka and Daniel Berger.  Although a slightly “weaker” showing than last week, the FedEx St. Jude Classic field still features plenty of other fantasy studs as most will be using this venue for a final Oakmont tune-up.

 

Two-time St. Jude winner David Toms owns the top spot in earnings at this event and will be competing in his 25th St. Jude this week.  On the other side of that experience spectrum are some St. Jude newbies coming in hot off the NCAA circuit who will be appearing in their first ever PGA TOUR event.

For more, here is the full field for this week’s event from PGATOUR.com

This Week’s Course Overview

TPC Southwind measures in at 7,239 yards and plays as a par 70.  The PGA TOUR has stopped here for this event every season since 1989 and it’s one of the nicest gems within the TPC family.  

With all manner of hazards like lakes and ponds  present, TPC Southwind will certainly play tough, although not quite as tough as some other tracks on Tour.  In fact, about 12 years ago the course received a major face lift with countless trees being removed and new grass being laid.   What has not changed is the drama that comes with the 11th hole, a par-3 that mirrors the 17th at TPC Sawgrass.  

We know from previous editions that length off the tee is not required here, but we’ll break down all of the real key stats in our Fantasy Notes section below.

A photo posted by Tim Bing (@badabing85) on Jun 5, 2016 at 7:56pm PDT

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Weather Forecast for Memphis, TN

Can the weather report in Memphis get any better?  Expect nothing but dry days with temperatures in the low 90s and sunny skies all week on a relatively short course where the fairways and greens will be true and fast.

Last Year’s Results from the FedEx St. Jude Classic

It was a first, of two, wins for Fabian Gomez last year as he became just the fifth Argentinian golfer to win a PGA TOUR event.  Gomez banked a 4-under 66 on the final day to close out Greg Owen after both of them shared the 54-hole lead.

Owen ended up shooting an even par 70 on the final day which was not enough to keep pace with Gomez.  Mickelson wasn’t far behind, as the lefty carded an impressive 65 on Sunday to finish T3.

For more here’s a video recap of the 2015 edition of the FedEx St. Jude Classic:

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5U1WTmigsg&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday (June 9, 2016) – Friday (June 10, 2016) 3:30 pm – 6:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (June 11, 2016) – Sunday (June 12, 2016) 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (GC), 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm (CBS)

• Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
  • Thursday – Friday, 8:00 am – 3:30 pm ET (featured groups), 3:00pm – 6:00 pm (featured holes)

• RADIO
  • Thursday-Friday, 1:00 – 7:00pm EST, Saturday-Sunday 1:00 – 6:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for FedEx St. Jude Classic this Week

Of course the biggest action will be next week’s DraftKings million-dollar event for the coveted U.S. Open, but there’s still plenty of DFS to be had this week.  Here are a few of our favorite contests.

• PGA $350K Dogleg [$50K to 1st]: This $33 entry event will pay over $126,000 in prizes to the Top 10 finishes including $50K that goes to the winner.

• $3.5 Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st]: With only one week to go before the big event at Oakmont next week, the big game is filling up, but surprisingly is still under 20,000 entrants as of Monday June 6, 2016.  The max that this event will allow in is 201K but we don’t think it will reach that high.  That’s good news though, as the less players in, the better your chances are at winning a million bucks.  Not sure about you, but we’d love a chance to win $1 million at 1/100,000 odds. (if it closes at 100,000).

• No Halftime Player Vs. Player:  If you’re looking for fun fast player vs player action for some quick cash, try out No Halftime.  The format is simple, you pick just one golfer during one round to play better than another golfer in a separate round.  If you’re guy plays better, you win.  Simple enough.  Golficity fands don’t forget to use promo code GOLF at signup for a 10% deposit bonus.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Here’s what we know about TPC Southwind:  It’s a short course with two Par 5s and a whole lot of water.  Therefore, precision and scrambling will be key here and distance is not a requirement to take down the trophy here.  With the course forecasted to play dry, fast, and true, we can expect this track to play even shorter as players most likely will shorten holes with extra roll.

Last year, Gomez was in the Top 9 in Scrambling, Proximity to the Hole, and GIR.  Putting has always been an issue here, but Gomez was able to finish T17 in Strokes Gained (SG) Putting.

Our heaviest emphasis this week will be on GIR and Strokes Gained Putting.  Most players who finish in the Top 5 in these two stats at TPC Southwind usually fare pretty well.  The 2014 winner, Ben Crane, dominated Strokes Gained Putting finishing the week ranked first in that category en route to his victory.

So do you chance it with DJ’s bombing power and excellent approach game (but weak putter) or do you build your rosters around high caliber mid-tiers?  Let’s dig into this week’s picks and roster suggestions to help you decode the right strategy to win here this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic

DJ may have been in contention for this week’s top slot (as he is most of the time), but he simply hasn’t proven to be a closer in a very long time.  Could he win here? Of course, any of these guys can, but we like Mickelson better here and love saving the $1,700 in salary coin by having him head up our rosters.

Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG: 71.54 GPFP: 82.99 Salary: $11,300): Lefty is clearly the better putter (versus DJ) and Phil has always been comfortable her at TPC Southwind.  Mickelson finished T3, T11, 2nd in his last three visits to this track and his game has begun to heat up at the right time.  He’s been putting lights out as of late (currently 5th in Strokes Gained Putting) plus he ranks 6th on Tour in Scoring Average and 7th in Birdie Average.  At nearly $2k less than DJ it seems as if Phil is undervalued this week and we’re surprised he isn’t going off at $11,900/$12,000.  There’s no denying that Mickelson makes for a great horse pick this week on this short TPC course and we’re willing to overlook his lack of accuracy due his notoriously crafty scrambling skills.

• Scrambling: 32nd
• Greens in Regulation: 65th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 5th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 12th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 3rd

Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG: 71.63 GPFP: 92.41 Salary: $10,800): That was certainly a strange missed cut for Ryan Palmer at the Byron Nelson, but that disappointing showing was sandwiched in between a T4, T23, and a T3.  The Texas native seems to be heating up and although power isn’t required here at TPC Southwind his long ball has set him up to knock down plenty of eagles this season (Palmer currently ranks 8th in Eagles).  His powerful scoring average rank of 12th on Tour coupled with a rank of 8th in Strokes Gained Off The Tee, can separate him from the pack come Sunday.  This guy simply knows how to score and that leads to excellent FPPG week in and week out.  As for past success, Ryan is perfect in cuts-made here since 2012 and has played well in all four attempts (T3 2012, 4th 2013, T32 2014, T22 2015).

• Scrambling: 128th
• Greens in Regulation: 45th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 105th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 28th

* Most Notable Stat: Eagles: 8th

Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 71.00 GPFP: NA Salary: $9,400): CH3 is becoming a favorite in our eyes once again as he begins to bounce back from his cooling off earlier in the season.  He currently leads the Tour in rounds under par (48) and he has thirty-seven rounds under 70.  He’s coming into the FedEx St. Jude Classic off of two great starts with an average of 92.00 fantasy points per start and he has five Top 10s already this season.  Aside from his one missed cut here last year, Howell has made the cut at TPC Southwinds every year from 2010-2014.  He’s a decent putter and deadly from around the green, making his game perfectly suited to this week’s track.

• Scrambling: 30th
• Greens in Regulation: 30th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 66th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 41st

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 13th

David Hearn (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 55.24 GPFP: 44.19 Salary: $8,400): Hearn continues to impress us week in and week out.  Now if he can only string all four rounds together, he’ll easily be in the Top 3 this week.  David has stellar accuracy off the tee (18th in Driving Accuracy) and in his last three starts he’s finished T28, T17, and T27th, during which he’s averaged 78.66 FPPG.  Hearn also owns a solid 5-for-6 record at TPC Southwind with a T18 in 2013.  At just $8,400 David Hearn is a solid all-around mid-tier play this week.

• Scrambling: 60th
• Greens in Regulation: 34th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 91st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 56th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 18th

6/8/16  Update: Brendan Steele has unexpectedly withdrawn from this week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic.  For this reason, we are bumping Chad Campbell up to the #5 “low-tier” slot and adding Camilo Villegas as our substitute super sleeper pick this week.  

Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 65.44 GPFP: 75.25 Salary: $7,900): It looks as if Steele is back to his old way of racking up fantasy points.  After watching his 65 on Thursday, we solidly believe that his game looks to be poised for a big finish.  That opening round at the Memorial last week marked his third first-round lead of the season, but he failed to hang on over the weekend which dropped him back to a T20 finish.  Although Brendan fell of the pace in later rounds the finish was still his third top 20 in four starts.  Let’s see if he can build off some of that success and come in with a top 10 or better this week.

• Scrambling: 141st
• Greens in Regulation: 20th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 112th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 43rd

* Most Notable Stat: Greens in Regulation: 20th

Chad Campbell (Golficity Odds 65/1 FPPG: 66.78 GPFP: 53.42 Salary: $7,800): There’s a lot of chatter around Campbell this week and it’s definitely for good reason.  Campbell is a name you probably have not put on your roster yet this season, but now is the time to give him a strong look this week.  Chad comes in off a T10 finish at Colonial where he carded a season low 63 and he finished T12 the week before.  In six consecutive attempts at TPC Southwind, Campbell is perfect in cuts made and he finished T8 here last year.  What he lacks in power he makes up in short-game and for the bargain price of $7,800 he’s poised to add some real juice to your roster this week.

• Scrambling: 49th
• Greens in Regulation: 40th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 166th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 27th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 27th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 56.18 GPFP: 44.94 Salary: $7,100): Scott Brown was plenty loud a few months ago but then his game silenced a bit.  We saw some impressive play from him last week where he finished 54 holes at T11 but like Jason Day, he fell back on Sunday to a T27 finish.  We’re sure that Brown is happy to return to TPC Southwind this week as his success here last year (he entered round 4 at T3 before dropping to a T12 finish) is evidence that his game is setup nicely for this track.

• Scrambling: 97th
• Greens in Regulation: 140th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 105th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 90th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee: 56th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Camilo Villegas (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 47.90 GPFP: 38.32 Salary: $6,900): Camilo is a solid “super sleeper” pick this week given his incredible course knowledge at this track.  In fact, Villegas already has seven Top 20s in just ten starts at TPC Southwind which includes a T18, T11, and T10 in his last three appearances.  Overall his season-to-date stats are not all that impressive but we’ve seen course horses shine through and play exceptionally well on tracks they are familiar with.

• Scrambling: 56th
• Greens in Regulation: 167th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 83rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 148th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Approach to Green: 55th

Sample DraftKings Lineup With Mickelson

Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Mickelson

Bonus “Mid-Tier Heavy” Sample Roster

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 6/1): T27 ($59,075)
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 16/1): MC
• Chris Kirk (Golficity Odds 45/1): MC
• Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 55/1): 67th ($17,510)
• Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 60/1): 64th ($18,020)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament

• Kyle Reifers (Golficity Odds 100/1): T20 ($88,643)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament

• David Hearn (Golficity Odds 175/1): T27 ($59,075)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”9.36%” bar_text=”19 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.17%” bar_text=”45 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”27.59%” bar_text=”8 out of 29 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”17.824%” bar_text=”5 out of 29 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”72.41″ bar_text=”147 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic with other Premium Members.

Looking for European Tour picks?  Premium Members can get our top fantasy picks for this week’s Lyoness Open here.

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Cover Photo via Flickr