Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Puerto Rico Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Puerto Rico Open

2016 Puerto Rico Open Preview

Most of the big dogs will be doing their own bracket-madness in Austin Texas this week for the WGC-Dell Match Play, but DraftKings and other fantasy sites will only be running games for the PR Open since match-play doesn’t lend itself to roster-style fantasy golf.  Needless to say, there will be plenty of action in Austin this week but let’s now turn our attention to Puerto Rico for the 2016 Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach.

Usually first time winners are the result of this event with each of the past three winners and five of eight overall having notched their first victories here.  Last year’s winner Alex Cejka has the chance to join Michael Bradley (2009, 2011) to become the event’s only two-time winners.

This week our task is to navigate a pool of “no-namers” to bring forward the best seven picks for your rosters this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

What looked to be a hot start for our fantasy picks last week with Scott and Steele ending round one tied for the lead cooled off rapidly as rain moved into Orlando.  Although we finished the week with no winners the good news is that all seven of our picks (including sleepers) made the cut which bumps our made-cut percentage to 73.01% in all 18 events played this season.

Our best pick last week was Paul Casey who sneaked up the leaderboard to finish with a solid T9 helping us finished week 18 with a total weekly fantasy purse earnings of $396,467.

We also opted for Adam Scott over the popular pick of Rory McIlroy last week which was a wise choice as Scott finished T12 to McIlroy’s T46, but in the end it was Jason Day who catapulted back into action to take the crown at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  The win marked Jason Day’s 6th victory in 12 months but he had been largely absent from 2016 fantasy success prior to Sunday.

A photo posted by PGA TOUR (@pgatour) on Mar 20, 2016 at 3:45pm PDT

The 2016 Puerto Rico Open Field

As we mentioned in our preview, defending champion Alex Cejka will headline a roster of lower tier players which include four former major winners (Daly, Cabrera, Goosen, and Toms) all of whom did not qualify for this week’s WGC-Dell Match Play event in Austin.

It’s strange seeing Mr. Matchplay himself Ian Poulter slated for Puerto Rico, but as the first alternate there is still a chance he’ll be playing in Austin this week.

For more here is the full field for this week’s Puerto Rico Open.

This Week’s Course Overview

Coco Beach Golf & CC (Championship Course) measures in at a whopping 7,506 yards and will play as a par 72 this week.  Once known as Trump International Puerto Rico, this course has has seen its fair share of alterations over the years.

The course was originally designed by Tom Kite and was built out of the El Yunque Rainforest, and offers beautiful views with challenging holes.  The PGA TOUR added Puerto Rico to its schedule in 2008 and since then it has been a regular stop for this event while the top payers in the world duke it out in Match Play.

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Weather Forecast for Rio Grande, Puerto Rico

The weather is expected to be beautiful as usual for Puerto Rico including warm, pleasant temperatures in the 80’s.  There are however rain storms in the forecast for the weekend rounds, but the chances are small and rain shouldn’t be a threat to play.

Otherwise, expect Coco Beach Golf & CC to play true this week.

Last Year’s Results from the Puerto Rico Open

Last year, Alex Cejka took it into a playoff at the 2015 Puerto Rico Open where he drained a 12-footer for birdie to win his first PGA TOUR event in style.  Prior to that Cejka had birdied four of his first six holes on Sunday and carded a 3-under 69 before waiting to see waited to see what the outcome of Grillo and Curran was going to be.

Sam Saunders had a chance to extend the playoff but in the end, it was Cejka who survived a five-man playoff.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHBVCcbyl5g&end=146&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Mar 24, 2016) – Friday (Mar 25, 2016) 10:30 am – 1:30 pm (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (Mar 27, 2016) – Sunday (Mar 28, 2016) 9 pm – 12 pm EST (Golf Channel)

• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • None this week.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Puerto Rico Open this Week

Here are a few of the fantasy golf contests we like this week.  As an added bonus we’ve thrown in an extras for this week’s WGC-Dell Match Play as well.

• PGA $100K 3-WOOD [$20,000 TO 1ST]: We love this 370-player event with $100,000.00 in total prizes and payouts to the top 74 finishing positions. The winner of this DK contest takes home a cool $20K.

• No Halftime Player Vs. Player: We introduced this interesting new fantasy concept a few weeks ago because we love how easy it is to play.  With No Halftime you can play heads up instead of always trying to solve the salary cap puzzle.  The best part is that you can create and join contests for every round of this week’s tournament—no more Thursday lockouts!

• Match Play Bracket Challenge:  For those staying away from the PR Open this week (or wanting a little bracket action) this one is for you.  We love March Madness like the rest of you, so adding a another bracket game this time of year is always a plus.  Hop into any public league for a chance to win some cool prizes.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Puerto Rico Open

Looking purely at the stats from last year, it becomes quite obvious that GIR and Driving Accuracy are the keys to success at Coco Beach.  In 2015 Cejka finished the week ranked T3 in GIR and T8 in Driving Accuracy, and it didn’t seem to matter that his driving distance only ranked 26th (even on this exceptionally long track).  Don’t get us wrong, he was still averaging 280 yard off the tee, but the 41 fairways he hit out of 56 is what ultimately led him down the path to victory.  That said, there’s no doubt that will be putting a heavy emphasis on those two stats this week as our lead indicators.

Remember, we understand that this course is long, but solid accuracy should gives players a huge boost this week.  Take a look at how the final four holes shape up…accuracy is going to come in handy coming down this stretch:

With this we’re still keeping close eye on Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Putting Average especially on this challenging Coco Beach track.  Look for this week’s winner to dominate the pack in those major stat categories.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

Horse Pick: McGirt, DeLaet, or Brown?

William McGirt  (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG: 74.25 GPFP: 70.54 Salary: $10,500): We were tempted to ride the Scott Brown train into Puerto Rico this week but the stats are pointing strongly toward Willie.  Of the three guys on the top of the salary list, McGirt currently has the best GIR, accuracy, and putting stats.  He was also beginning to heat up nicely until losing control over the weekend at Bay Hill where he ended up finishing 73rd.  We’re not too concerned about his performance last week as even the world’s best have a bad outing every now and then—we’re looking at you Jordan Spieth.  With three top-10 finishes including a runner-up at the Sanderson, we can see the big fella making some serious moves on this low-key field.  On a side note for this upper tier we didn’t even consider Freddie Jacobson and the inconsistent Ian Poulter this week, and neither should you.

• Driving Accuracy:  34th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 34th
• Putting Average: 34th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 20th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 14th

Mid-Tier ($8,100-$10,000): Weekley, Cejka, or Rodgers?

Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 66.55 GPFP: 53.24 Salary:$9,500): You know that we’re not fans of the defending champ pick, but with a field so thin we need to look closely at the stats.  Alex has had an inconsistent season to say the least, but so has the rest of this crew—otherwise they’d be in Austin and not Puerto Rico this week.  Cejka ranks second in the field in Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) and has some decent accuracy off the tee.  As for the other guys in this mid-tier…Rodgers and Weekly haven’t played well in a very long time and are just too much of a gamble this week in our opinion.

• Driving Accuracy: 35th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 45th
• Putting Average: 44th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 38th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 20th

Kyle Stanley (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 58.00 GPFP: 51.04 Salary: $8,000): Stanley hasn’t cracked a Top 41 in his last four consecutive events, but keep in mind, this field looks a lot different than the lineups at the Honda and the Valspar.  Remember, all of the top ranked players in the world are absent this week so have an open mind when making your picks.  Stanley has decent stats in the key categories we mentioned earlier and with a little bit of rest since his last start, he could make a some noise this week.

• Driving Accuracy: 79th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 74th
• Putting Average: 94th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 67th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 58th

David Toms (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 53.42 GPFP: 43.73 Salary: $7,500): Any way you shake it you have a tough pick to make in this low-tier spot this week and believe it or not it looks like Toms may be your best bet.  Aaron might be a decent alternative here and either way, this tier is a real crap shoot this week because it’s filled a lot of inconsistent players.  Toms ranks 7th on TOUR in Driving Accuracy and knows a thing or two about hitting greens and saving sand shots.  His biggest enemy is his putter but if his accuracy off the tee is working this week he could have a break-out appearance at Coco Beach

• Driving Accuracy: 7th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 89th
• Putting Average: 189th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 59th

* Most Notable Stat: Sand Saves Percentage: 1st

Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 55/1 FPPG: 62.11 GPFP: 50.31 Salary: $7,400): Vegas is not the most accurate off the tee but his long ball (26th Distance) and awesome GIR percentage (11th) could potentially make up for it.  He’s made six of nine cuts this season with four Top 25s including two Top 10s.  Not much else to say about Vegas but grab him in your lower tier and hang on for what might be a bumpy ride this week.

• Driving Accuracy: 121st
• Greens-In-Regulation: 11th
• Putting Average: 168th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 61st

* Most Notable Stat: GIR: 11th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

Will MacKenzie (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 44.88 GPFP: 35.90 Salary: $7,400): MacKenzie turned around a five consecutive missed-cut slump into a three-made streak and progressively improving (T59, T51, and T37 in the last three events).  Although his report card for the season looks grim, this is the type of field where he can perhaps break into the Top 15.  A performance like that is about all you should be looking for in these two low-roster spots this week.

• Driving Accuracy: 89th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 89th
• Putting Average: 153rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 110th

* Most Notable Stat: GIR: 89th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

Thomas Aiken (Golficity Odds 90/1 FPPG: 49.00 GPFP: 39.20 Salary: $6,500): We all need a super sleeper pick and here’s a name we’re confident will fly under the fantasy radar this week.  Aiken doesn’t offer much with the short stick but he’s super accurate off the tee and crushes the GIR stat.  Believe it or not he currently ranks 3rd on TOUR in Ball Striking and 1st in Driving Accuracy.   Like we said, he can’t putt but he could surprise this weak field if he can drain a few this week.  Aiken has yet to crack a decent finish this season but within this field anything can happen.

• Driving Accuracy: 1st
• Greens-In-Regulation: 16th
• Putting Average:  203rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 143rd

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Accuracy: 1st

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week.

Sample DraftKings Roster with McGirt

Sample DraftKings Roster without McGirt

 

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 5/1): T12 ($123480)
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 22/1) T74 ($12,285)
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 28/1) T9 ($170,100)
• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 38/1) T46 ($17,341)
• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 50/1) T46 ($17,341)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 60/1): T60 ($13,986)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 85/1): T27 ($41,934)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”12.70%” bar_text=”16 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”23.02%” bar_text=”29 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”38.89%” bar_text=”7 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Sleeper Report Winners Picked” percent=”5.56%” bar_text=”1 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”22.22%” bar_text=”4 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”73.02″ bar_text=”92 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked (TBD)” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 0 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Puerto Rico Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr