Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 RBC Heritage

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 RBC Heritage

2016 RBC Heritage Fantasy Preview

Now that all of The Masters excitement is behind us, the PGA TOUR shifts to Harbour Town with another all-star lineup that contains plenty of the Augusta spillover.  Before we talk about the havoc that Augusta National played on almost everyone in the field, let’s cue you up for this weeks event.

Past winners like Snedeker, McDowell, and Kuchar will all be in attendance this week but noticeably absent will be defending champion Jim Furyk.  He’s still nursing a wrist injury and we probably won’t see him back on the PGA TOUR anytime soon.

Most likely the fantasy games over the next four weeks won’t be huge, but the PLAYERS Championship is right around the corner which should offer a more generous payout.  In the meantime, the No Halftime match-ups are beginning to heat up.  You probably noticed some higher stakes head-to-head match-ups being offered lately and we’re loving this new style of fantasy golf.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Overall it was not an impressive showing for our main fantasy picks last week and it was both surprising and heartbreaking to see Augusta National Golf Course get the best of almost all of them.  Our best finish was our lower-tier pick, Paul Casey, who finished with a solid T4 against his low $7,700 DraftKings Salary.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello, another of our selections from last week, also cracked the top 20 finishing with a T17 at Augusta.

Those tough windy conditions and lightning-fast greens we all witnessed last week created a lot of mistakes, and caused 3 of our 7 picks to miss the cut.  Given our untouchable past track record in majors it should go without saying that we were not happy with last week’s outcome and the disappointing week has only amplified our aspirations for retribution in the coming events.

In happier news, our Tuesday Sleeper Report five “long shot” players all who made the cut including Casey (T4), Cabrera-Bello (T17), Haas/Hoffman (T24), and Walker (T29). Additionally, last week we offered a new segment for Majors called our “Three Overlooked Mid Tier Picks” which went out to support any last minute roster creations or updates.  The results from the new Wednesday segment turned out exceedingly well with our three picks all cracking the top 10—Danny Willett (WINNER), Brandt Snedeker (T10), and JB Holmes (T4).  In that report we identified Willett as “not getting enough love” from fantasy players due to his $8k price tag.  Turns out, Danny was a steal at that price!

A photo posted by @themasters on Apr 10, 2016 at 5:56pm PDT

The 2016 RBC Heritage Field

It will be another robust field this week with World No. 1 Jason Day—who already has two wins in 2016—going up against past winners Snedeker, McDowell, and Kuchar. Along with those powerhouse names we’ll see last week’s Low-Am winner Bryson DeChambeau as he makes his first official start as a PGA TOUR pro.

 
Some of the mid-tier fantasy pick options this week will include names like Justin Thomas, Bill Haas, and even five-time RBC Heritage champ Davis Love III shouldn’t be overlooked when building your rosters this week.

This Week’s Course Overview

Harbour Town Golf Links measures in at 7,101 yards and will play as a par 71 this week.  Although it is one of the shortest layouts on TOUR, this links-style track still presents challenges of both wind and water.  The fairways are narrow and the greens here contain many undulations which will require some very well struck approach shots if players want to convert birdies.

 

If players miss the fairways this week they will find themselves having to battle around hundreds of oaks and pine trees that line the course.  We’ll break down all of the stats that fantasy players should identify when making their picks in our fantasy notes segment below.

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Weather Forecast for Hilton Head, SC

It will be a mostly dry week with warmer temperatures than we saw last week in Augusta, GA.  The wind however will be a factor here as it always is here given that Harbour Town runs down the shoreline.

Last Year’s Results from the RBC Heritage

It took 4.5 years for Jim Furyk to break through with another PGA TOUR win and he certainly did so in dramatic fashion at the 2015 RBC Heritage.

Furyk kicked off the front nine on Sunday with six birdies, including a 48-footer at No.8 that bumped him into the lead and then went on to notch three more on the back nine.  The veteran came from behind and surged into a playoff with Kevin Kisner after carding a phenomenal 8-under 63 on the final day.

After loosing the lead to Furyk it was Kisner who fought back and put down three birdies in his final five holes to force the playoff.  However, on just the second overtime hole, Furyk stuck his tee shot to within 7-feet on the par-3 17th and dropped his birdie putt for the win.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qag_qZR5ScI&end=208&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (April 14, 2016) – Friday (April 15, 2016) 3:00 pm- 6:00 pm EST (GC)
  • Saturday (April 16, 2016) – Sunday (April 17, 2016) 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (GC),  3:00 pm – 6:00 pm (CBS)

• Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
  • Thursday-Friday, 7:30 am – 3:00 pm ET (featured groups), 3:00 – 6:00 pm (featured holes).

• RADIO: Thursday-Sunday 2:00 – 7:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RBC Heritage this Week

As predicted, DraftKings has gone back to the “smaller” contests, at least for now.  Although there are no more mega-millions on the line until the U.S. Open comes along this June, there is still plenty of fantasy action to be had.  Along with their regular weekly “$100,000 to first place” game, DraftKings also currently has a King of the Hill matchup this week.  Here are the details.

• PGA KING OF THE HILL QUALIFIER ($200 entry, 62 max players): DraftKings is calling out all fantasy golf players to see who can put their money where their mouth is for a chance to be crowned the “King of the Hill.”  The winner of this qualifier contest will receive a ticket to play the reigning fantasy golf King of the Hill in a head-to-head battle for a shot at the title and a cool $10,000.  The entry fee is hefty but the field is small and the payout (if you win it all) is excellent.

• No Halftime ($0 to $100 Head Up Bets): Whats great about No Halftime is that your player doesn’t even have to finish first or even in a Top 25 for you to win some heads up cash.  You simply pick a player and select a round to beat a player in another round.  For example, you can take Haas in Rd. 1 this week to have a better score than Day in Rd. 3.  This player vs. player fantasy golf style is simple, fun, and the action keeps going even after regular lineups lock on Thursday morning..

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the RBC Heritage

Harbour Town is a short track so having a big stick is not a requirement to win here.  However,  players with booming distance who know how to control it with laser accuracy can tear up this track—note our emphasis on laser accuracy.  The greens are small here, which puts a little premium on the GIR game.

Driving accuracy, scrambling, strokes gained putting, proximity to the hole and GIR are the ideal stats to focus on based on past editions of this event.  Let’s take a minute to break each one down:

• Scrambling: Harbour Town is narrow (remember, it’s a links course) which leads to a lot of errant tee shots that eventually result in a lot of missed greens.  Last year, Furyk finished the week at first in scrambling (as did winner Graeme McDowell in 2013) and Kuchar ranked 11th in 2014.  No doubt the fields best scramblers will have an edge this week against a field that will struggle to find these tiny greens.
• Strokes Gained: Putting: Both Furyk and Kuchar finished in the Top 12 in this stat on their way to their respective wins so we know how crucial putting will be on these crazy undulated Harbour Town greens.
• Proximity To The Hole: Proximity to the hole refers to the average distance a player’s approach shot finishes in relation to the hole within 30 feet, even if the ball is not on the green.  Both Kuch and Furyk dominated this stat in their triumphant years finishing 3rd and 2nd respectively.
• Greens in Regulation: This should be an obvious stat since the course presents a lot of challenge with regards to keeping the ball in play.  All of the last three year’s winners finished in the Top 10 in the GIR stat for the week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

Horse Picks: Brandt Snedker and Paul Casey

A lot of fantasy players will opt to spend the full $12,500 for Day this week, but something has to give.  He’s not accurate off of the tee and power isn’t as highly desired here as it would be on a lengthy track.  We’re looking more at accuracy this week and we’re reverting back to our two horse pick strategy that has proven successful in the past.

Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 16/1 FPPG: 69.00 GPFP: 57.96 Salary: $10,600): Snedeker comes into Harbour Town with a lot going for him.  First off, he’s a past champion (2011) and has been back (and played the weekend) every year since.  Sneds has five Top 10s this season which shows you how consistent he’s been and he’s trending on the heels of a T9 at the Match Play and a T10 at the Masters.  He’s more accurate than Jason Day off the tee and he possesses a fantastic putter.  If his flat stick gets hot no one is catching Brandt this week.

• Driving Accuracy: 120th
• Scrambling: 15th
• Proximity to the Hole: 109th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 27th
• Greens in Regulation: 81

* Most Notable Stat: Birdie Average: 13th

Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 16/1 FPPG: 75.72 GPFP: 60.58 Salary:$10,800):  Paul Casey is getting a ton of love from the odds makers this week and well, he should.  He came back to the PGA TOUR strong after being briefly sick and put up a T4 in some tough conditions at Augusta.  So far this season Casey has three top 10s and all of those came in his last four starts.  He’s played here at Harbour Town three times and has finished within the Top 25 during each trip.  Casey is accurate off the tee and knows how to hit the greens (currently sitting in 20th on TOUR in GIR), especially these small dance floors.

• Driving Accuracy: 60th
• Scrambling: 92nd
• Proximity to the Hole: 66th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 60th
• Greens in Regulation: 20th

* Most Notable Stat:  Ball Striking: 10th

Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 32/1 FPPG: 71.20 GPFP: 51.96 Salary: $9,100): Bill always seems to be in contention and proves to be a solid fantasy contender week in and week out.  Haas is also a true horse for the course with enough knowledge to rewrite the yardage book.  He’s competed here in every RBC Heritage event since before earning his TOUR card in 2006.  Most importantly, he comes into the week with some solid finishes over the last few weeks and looks to be trending nicely.  As you’ll see in his stats below Haas is very accurate off the tee and excellent at scrambling.  Look for Bill to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

• Driving Accuracy: 25th
• Scrambling: 23rd
• Proximity to the Hole: 173rd
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 89th
• Greens in Regulation: 51st

* Most Notable Stat:  Scrambling: 23rd

Graeme McDowell (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 75.19 GPFP: 48.36 Salary: $8,500): Graeme hasn’t done much since his solo fifth at PGA National but he’s the new Furyk of Harbour Town this week.  Everyone doubted the old man last year when he banked his second RBC title, so in his absence why can’t Graeme do the same?  McDowell hits fairways and knows a thing or two about putting the ball close on approach.  It’s only been three years since his victory here so his winning ways aren’t as far off as they may seem.

• Driving Accuracy: 9th
• Scrambling: 45th
• Proximity to the Hole: 12th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 153rd
• Greens in Regulation: 109th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Accuracy: 9th

Chez Reavie (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG: 66.92 GPFP: 75.62 Salary: $7,600): Reavie has been grinding this season with thirteen events played and eleven made cuts including five Top 25s and two Top 10s.  In the last four weeks Chez has had average FPPG of 73.5 and his cap has never been above $7,300 in that span, therefore making him a smart buy week in and week out.  He possesses solid accuracy skills off the tee, ranks third on the PGA TOUR in Scrambling and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.  Look for this sneaky pick to do some damage at Harbour Town this week.

• Driving Accuracy: 15th
• Scrambling: 3rd
• Proximity to the Hole: 19th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 131st
• Greens in Regulation: 93rd

* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 3rd

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 70/1 FPPG: 62.03 GPFP: 55.83 Salary: $7,500): At just $7,500 Brown is an undervalued pick this week because not only has he flashed four Top 10 finishes he’s also 3-for-3 in cuts made at Harbour Town with a T5 finish just two ears ago.  Scott is not just a one trick pony either, as evidenced by the fact that he has three Top 10s in his last five starts.

• Driving Accuracy: 75th
• Scrambling: 120th
• Proximity to the Hole: 99th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 99th
• Greens in Regulation: 114th

* Most Notable Stat: Total Birdies: 7th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

 Jim Herman (Golficity Odds 125/1 FPPG: 59.13 GPFP: 47.31 Salary: $6,500): Already a winner on TOUR this season, Herman comes into Harbour Town with five Top 25s including two Top 10s, one of which was his breakthrough win in Houston.  The RBC Heritage will mark his first start since that win and we like his stats for the course (and his low salary!).  He could put up some decent fantasy points this week for your roster and his sub-$7k price tag might just give you enough room to fit those two horse picks at the top of your lineup.

• Driving Accuracy: 17th
• Scrambling: 53rd
• Proximity to the Hole: 37th
• Strokes Gained: Putting:  189th
• Greens in Regulation: 39th

* Most Notable Stat: Total Driving: 7th

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week.

Sample DraftKings Roster this Week

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Masters

• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 10/1):  T42 ($37,000)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 15/1): MC
• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 28/1): MC
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 40/1): T49 ($27,467)
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 55/1): T4 ($413,333)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Masters

• Rafael Cabrera-Bello (Golficity Odds 70/1) T17 ($145,000)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Masters

• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 100/1) MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.88%” bar_text=”16 out of 147 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.44%” bar_text=”35 out of 147 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”7 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”19.04%” bar_text=”4 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”72.79″ bar_text=”107 out of 147 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 RBC Heritage with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr