Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Valspar Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valspar Championship
2016 Valspar Championship Preview
BOOM! We advised our premium members last week to opt for Adam Scott and Bubba Watson over the ‘Big 3’ of McIlory, Fowler, and Spieth and that advice paid off big time! More to come with last week’s triumph in a moment, but first let’s get you ready for the Valspar Championship.
Although he hasn’t shown any dominance since his first 2016 win at Kapalua back in January, this week Spieth will return to the place that began his 2015 ‘career year’ – a run that would eventually see five total wins including two majors. If Spieth can return to his previous form he will undoubtedly be a force to recon with here at Copperhead as Jordan recorded a T7 here in 2013 before returning with a win in 2015.
The other big players featured in this week’s field are Patrick Reed and Henrik Stenson. Stenson will make a return trip to Innisbrook after finishing one shot out of last year’s playoff in his tournament debut. Believe it or not, Henrik is still seeking his first U.S. victory since winning the 2013 FedExCup at East Lake.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
If you took our fantasy advice last week your wallet is undoubtedly a little fatter this morning.
BOOM! Our #fantasygolf picks just went 1-2-3 at the #WGCCadillac. pic.twitter.com/Eh8HhIQhWm
— Golficity (@Golficity) March 6, 2016
In case you missed it, this is how we set our Premium Members up with our Horse Picks last week:
‘We’re going to opt for a new strategy this week and pick two horses instead of one. During these smaller events, you can get premier favorites for lower prices, allowing you to build a stellar roster from top to bottom. The OWGR top-4 are all amazing golfers and any could win this event, but the stats are pointing towards Bubba Watson this week. Former World No. 1 Adam Scott has also proven himself to be the real deal once again this season and his train looks to only be gaining momentum.’
With that said, we sat Fowler, Spieth, McIlroy, and Day and opted instead to take Scott and Watson as our top picks. Sprinkle in our low-tier pick Danny Willett and we ended up cashing in big time this week. If you haven’t seen the leaderboard, this is how things ended up at Trump Doral:
So far this season we have successfully picked seven winners in the sixteen events played which almost putts us at an unmatched 50% in picking winners year-to-date. We also offered our Premium Members some sample DraftKings rosters and one roster in particular earned a ton of fantasy points which easily banked players some serious cash.
Willett was a solid pickup last week as well and we highlighted him as someone you need to have on your roster both in our picks segment and our Tuesday Fantasy Sleeper Report. With the big 1-2-3 punch last week we are back above $1 million in weekly PGA TOUR purse earnings (which means our 7 picks for the week earned over $1 million combined for that event).
It’s also worth noting that our Salary Cap Sleeper Pick Smylie Kaufman also came through big-time finishing with a solid T8 against his low $6,500 price tag last week.
Looks like we are now heating up again heading into the most exciting time of the season and right before the big $4 million Masters event on DraftKings.
The 2016 Valspar Championship Field
There’s no doubt that the top priced player in salary cap this week will be World No. 1 Jordan Spieth as he makes his first title defense of 2016 (one of five this year). He’ll be going up against a field not as rich as last week’s WGC, but the 2016 Valspar is still set to contain some heavy hitters. In all, Spieth will be joined by two other players in the OWGR Top 10 and seven out of the Top 20.
Among those names are the No. 6 ranked player Henrik Stenson—who missed out by one stroke in last year’s playoff—and No. 10 Patrick Reed who lost to Spieth in that same playoff. Stenson did not show much dominance at Doral, and Reed has cooled off dramatically since his hot start in January. Stay tuned below to see if we even consider those two guys in our fantasy selections this week.
We’re going to have to dig deep this week to analyze the field since a large majority of players in this event are low-tier and unpopular names to most PGA fans. With Spieth as the clear favorite, you don’t necessarily need to break the bank on him (utilizing a similar strategy as last week), but let’s see what are stats are pointing at this week before jumping to that conclusion.
For more here’s the full field listing from PGATOUR.com for the Valspar Championship.
This Week’s Course Overview
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort measures in at 7,340 yards and plays as a par 71. The course has an nontraditional Florida feel with many different elevation changes throughout a rolling, tree-lined track which has been known to give players quite a bit of trouble.
This course contains double doglegs on two par-5s which really puts a premium on getting home in two. The closing three holes are known to most as the “Snake Pit” which (similar to The Bear Trap) features two brutal par-4s with a tough 215-yard par-3 sandwiched in between.
We’ll cover more course details in depth and how it pertains to our fantasy picks and key fantasy statistics in our Fantasy Notes section below.
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Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL
You can expect decent weather for Rounds 1 and 2 in Palm Harbor this week but wind will play a crucial factor throughout most of the event.
Round 3 is calling for thunderstorms with winds as high as 18 mph. Barring no weather setbacks on Saturday, the final round looks to be the best day of the four.
Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship
Copperhead was where the phenomenal run to No. 1 in the World all began for Jordan Spieth. The 22-year old made two clutch par putts to earn his way into a playoff with Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair and he won it all with an incredible 30-foot birdie on the third extra hole.
In the end Jordan finished with a 2-under 69 in regulation and the turning point was his amazing wedge shot on 17 from a terrible lie which helped him save par before moving on to the 12-footer on 18 he salvaged after missing the green from his shot out of the fairway bunker.
Here’s a recap of Spieth triumph at Innisbrook last year.
[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saBp_yCfiyo&end=201&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday (Mar 10, 2016) – Friday (Mar 11, 2016) 3 pm – 6 pm (Golf Channel)
- Saturday (Mar 10, 2016) 12 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)
- Sunday (Mar 11, 2016): 12 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)
- PGA TOUR LIVE
- Thursday (Mar 3, 2016)) – Friday (Mar 4, 2016)): 8 am – 3 pm EST (Featured Groups), 3 pm – 6pm (Featured Holes)
- Download the iOS app here to view on mobile devices.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week
As we do every week, we’ve searched all the major fantasy sites to find you the best contests this week. Here are a few of our favorites:
- No Halftime: We’re hoping a lot of you checked out No Halftime last week, the new player vs. player fantasy sports game that’s not only simple, but a lot of fun to play. If you haven’t checked them out yet, be sure to get in there and create or accept a challenge for this week’s event. We’ll give you some solid heads-up match-ups in this week’s picks to help you get the most bang for your buck. Simply find a player vs. player contest and pick your wager ($5 to $100 per contest) and you’ll be off and running. Remember to use the coupon code GOLF when you sign up to get a $10 deposit bonus…its like playing with free money!
- DraftKings: DK has two games we like this week, one is a qualifier for the big event in April and the other is weekly event with a nice kicker to 1st place.
- PGA $4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire SUPERSatellite: This game cost only $3 bucks to enter and the field is less than 10,000 players. They will be rewarding 1250 players with a $20 entry to the big game which kicks off the week of April 4th, 2016.
- PGA $300K FAIRWAY [$50K TO 1ST!]: If you like the higher cost entry games, this one has a solid payout structure. A $27 entry gets you a shot at the $50k first prize and even 10th place will put a cool grand in your pocket. There is just over 12,000 players in this contest and payouts will run up to 2,585th place.
There are countless other fantasy leagues (and league structures) out there so remember that our Premium Members can use our Ask our Fantasy Golf Experts service for one-on-one help and specific answers to your fantasy golf contest questions.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valspar Championship
Let’s state the obvious first: Copperhead is a tough course and it presents a lot of challenges, especially with rain in the forecast. Last year this track posted 0.86 strokes over par and your winner (Jordan Spieth) was only ranked 51st in fairways hit and 32nd in GIR for the week. This is why we like scrambling and birdie conversions as our key areas of statistical focus this week. It’s worth noting that Jordan also finished the week ranked T1 in fewest putts and lead in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.
The Snake Pit will definitely mess up some scorecards, but probably not as bad as Bowditch last week (ouch). The course had a facelift and new grass was put into play—believe us, even these little course makeovers can make a huge difference to any past success. The one thing that remains the same here is the daunting par-5s and we’ll be factoring par 5 scoring into our picks this week as well. If you want to dig deeper you can get a gauge of a player’s power stats by simply sorting the ‘Power’ column in our Weekly Fantasy Stats.
There are plenty of solid sleeper picks at great prices in the field this week and we’re liking the idea of running with one roster with a big dollar horse and one without. We’ll jump to a few examples in our sample DraftKings rosters below.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
Horse Picks: Jordan Spieth or Henrik Stenson?
Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 3/2 FPPG: 94.8 GPFP: 110.86 Salary: $12,800): Jordan is the obvious pick, but let’s be honest, you can’t have him and Stenson on a salary cap team together and if you have to pick just one, its Spieth all day. Stenson hasn’t impressed us yet this season and we’re not going to take any chances until we see more from the Swede. You know how much we hate picking defending champions, and you have to be sure the pick is worth his hefty $12,800 price tag, but for us we think it more of a mental thing for Spieth, coming back to Innisbrook where all of his recent dominance began. That alone could light a spark which can keep him hot right up to title defense at Augusta. Add to that the fact that Spieth looked much better last week after missing a few cuts, so he’s trending in the right direction. Simply put…this one’s a no-brainer.
- Scrambling: 74th
- Ball Striking: 44th
- Driving Distance: 60th
- Birdie Average: 1st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 14th
* Most Notable Stat: Putting Average: 2nd
Mid-Tier: Danny Willett or Patrick Reed?
Danny Willett (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 104.30 GPFP: 83.40 Salary:$10,800): Willett lacks the power but his putting trumps Reed quite handily, and that’s the more important stat for us this week. His T3 at Doral last week was definitely not a fluke and we knew it. With a salary above $10k this week Danny is clearly proving himself to be the real deal and his putter can easily bail out his lack of distance if he’s rolling them this week. You just can’t argue with this guy’s success as he comes into Copperhead with eigh top five finishes worldwide in his last 10 months and that run includes two wins. We love first-timers who get to take a fresh-look at these well-known tracks and we feel that he can tear this course up.
(Because he mainly plays on the European TOUR, Willett does not have enough rounds played to record and PGA TOUR stats for this season)
- Scrambling: NA
- Ball Striking: NA
- Driving Distance: NA
- Birdie Average: NA
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: NA
* Most Notable Stat: NA
Mid/Low Tier (II): Gary Woodland, Russell Knox, and/or Kevin Na?
Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 26/1 FPPG: 80.00 GPFP: 63.96 Salary: $9,100): Vegas has him about 40/1 but we like his chances coming in closer to 26/1 this week. Na hasn’t really been a the closer we’d like him to be but he’s averaged some solid FPPG this season and he brings a lot of value to a roster. His previous success here also tells us that is game is set up nicely for Copperhead as he finished runner-up here in 2014 and chased it with a T10 last year. Key stats include the fact that he ranks 6th in Total Birdies and 19th in Par Breakers this season.
- Scrambling: 31st
- Ball Striking: 89th
- Driving Distance: 170th
- Birdie Average: 14th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 18th
* Most Notable Stat: Birdie Average: 14th
Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 42/1 FPPG: 72.76 GPFP: 78.45 Salary: $8,400): We’re not sure if Woody is coming or going at this point, but we’re going to give him one more chance this week on this long Innisbrook track. He’s 7-for-7 in cuts made so far this season with 3 Top 25s but he just hasn’t been able to bust through the Top 10 yet. Gary ranks 2nd on TOUR in Driving Distance so we know his power can help shorten this long course, now let’s just hope his short game follows. Woodland’s previous record here screams inconsistency given that he notched a T8 here in 2014 but followed it up with a MC last year. However, he’s well rested, taking a break since the Honda Classic, and is playing well enough this year to give us a good show this week.
- Scrambling: 193rd
- Ball Striking: 51st
- Driving Distance: 2nd
- Birdie Average: 51st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 12th
* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 2nd
Low Tier Picks: Charles Howell III or Danny Lee?
Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 48/1 FPPG: 74.60 GPFP: 93.24 Salary: $7,900): Anyway you slice it CH3 is a fantasy animal. Although he’s only won twice on TOUR in his almost 20 year career, he consistently puts up solid finishes and banks some quality fantasy points. Howell missed only one cut out of eleven events played this season and his best finish so far is T9, which comes among 8 Top 25 finishes. He’s a got a booming drive and he knows a thing or two about making birdies (4th in Total Birdies). Could this be the week he finally notches that third PGA TOUR win? That’s hard to say, but you can certainly bank on him bringing up the bottom half of your roster this week.
- Scrambling: 46th
- Ball Striking: 74th
- Driving Distance: 23rd
- Birdie Average: 50th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 79th
* Most Notable Stat: Total Birdies: 4th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
Patton Kizzire (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 69.30 GPFP: 55.44 Salary: $7,600): Vegas has Patton at a 100/1 bet, which we would consider putting a little side action on! So far this season he’s made eight of ten cuts and posted three Top 10s and a solo 2nd. His game has been spotty lately but he looks to have turned a corner at PGA National two weeks ago. He’s not a long hitter but Kizzire can make some serious noise with his putter.
- Scrambling: 96th
- Ball Striking: 171st
- Driving Distance: 104th
- Birdie Average: 17th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 60th
* Most Notable Stat: Stokes Gained-Putting: 10th
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
Patrick Rodgers (Golficity Odds 90/1 FPPG: 63.90 GPFP: 52.39 Salary: $6,800): Rodgers got off to a hot start in 2016 but faded over the last month. He took a break after the Honda Classic, and we’re hoping that was exactly what he needed to bounce back for this week’s Valspar. Before his hiatus, Rodgers was averaging roughly 85 fantasy points per game but since then he’s lost his groove as evidenced by his recent missed cuts. Regardless, Patrick has some nice power off the tee for a sleeper pick and he’s a steady ball striker. There’s no denying that Rodgers is a pure crap shoot, and wouldn’t bet him straight up, but at $6,800 he’s a nice pick-up and will leave you enough salary cap room at the top to run with Jordan as your horse.
- Scrambling: 177th
- Ball Striking: 21st
- Driving Distance: 45th
- Birdie Average: 35th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 22nd
* Most Notable Stat: GIR: 17th
Bonus Picks: No Halftime Challenges We Like this Week:
- K.J. Choi (Rd 1) over Bill Haas (Rd 3)
- Branden Grace (Rd 1) over Justin Thomas (R2)
Sample Draft KingsRoster with Spieth
Sample DraftKings Roster without Spieth
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac
- Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 14/1): WINNER ($1,620,000)
- Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 14/1) 2nd ($1,018,000)
- J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 28/1): 59th ($51,000)
- Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 38/1): T35 ($72,500)
- Danny Willett (Golficity Odds 46/1): T3 ($483,000)
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac
- Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 75/1): T35 ($72,500)
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac
- Smylie Kaufman (Golficity Odds 80/1): T8 ($197,500)
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Valspar Championship with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
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