Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Wells Fargo Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship
2016 Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview
Despite the heavy rain it was overall not a bad week for our fantasy picks in New Orleans as we saw two Top 5 finishes including Jaime Lovemark’s P2 finish and our Horse Pick (must have) Jason Day finishing T5. We’ll highlight last week’s finishers, money earned, and recap our Sleeper Report results from the Zurich below, but first let’s get ready for the all-star cast heading up the field in Charlotte this week.
The top dog this week will easily be Rory McIlroy who comes in as a two-time winner on a track Quail Hollow track that he thrives on. Rory currently holds the 72-hole course record at Quail Hollow and in addition to his two wins, he had a runner-up finish here in 2012 to Rickie Fowler—a guy who also returns to a track that jump-started his winning career.
Another solid fantasy horse for the course this week is Phil Mickelson. Some argue that Lefty is “overdue” while others loudly exclaim that the 45-year-old is “washed up,” but before you make any argument just know he has ten Top 12 finishes here in twelve visits. This week Phil will try once again for his first Wells Fargo victory, despite 10 top-12 finishes in 12 previous visits.
The field will see more action this week from OWGR top names as a lot of players like to stop at Quail Hollow for a final tune-up before the big prize is handed out for THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Needless to say, you’ll have your work cut out for you this week building rosters, but we’ll do the heavy lifting for you to weed out any players that you should avoid this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week we made six of seven cuts and finished with four Top 20 finishes (out of seven selections) including a P2 from Lovemark and a T5 from Jason Day.
Our Premium Members will recall that we opted to go with Day over Rose and Fowler as our “horse pick” and the decision paid off nicely since the widely-favored Rose missed the cut and Fowler finished with a disappointing T20. Occasionally we’re comfortable with buying the top priced player in the field if we feel he’s the best to head up your roster, and Day was a perfect example of that last week.
When the Zurich was all said and done we ended up banking a total weekly fantasy earnings (from our seven picks) of $1,016,648 and we now have a 33.3% win percentage on the 2015-2016 season which essentially means we have picked the winner in one out of every three events this season!
In case you missed it, this was one of the two DraftKings sample rosters we provided our Premium Members last week…Day and Lovemark certainly helped bank some serious fantasy points if you used those two guys together as we suggested!
Our Tuesday Sleeper Report also featured Charles Howell as your top sleeper to run with for the Zurich and he backed us up by coming off of greater than 50/1 Vegas odds for an impressive T11 finish. In total, four of our five sleeper picks made the cut and we double dipped on David Hearn by having him in our sleeper report and as our sleeper pick in our weekly picks. Hopefully you scooped him up because his T20 should have added some nice points to your fantasy roster.
The 2016 Wells Fargo Championship Field
As we previewed, all eyes will be on defending champion Rory McIlroy to see if he can break through and join the win party this season at a course that he calls ‘home’. There’s no doubt that he will be the top priced player in DraftKings this week and we’re almost certain that FedExCup leader Adam Scott will be the other player in the ‘coin-flip’ spot for the horse pick.
In total, the field consists of eight players from the OWGR Top 12 and we all will have our hands full picking between the aformentioned McIlroy and Scott along with other PGA TOUR power-house names Fowler, Stenson, and Dustin Johnson. There’s also a ton of strength in the mid-tier category this week with names including Mickelson, Haas, Holmes, Kaymer, Casey, DeChambeau, and English.
Last but not least, some other big news coming out of Quail Hollow this week is the return of Jim Furyk, who has been out due to wrist surgery, Furyk will make his season debut this week and we are all curious to see how the veteran will perform.
This Week’s Course Overview
Quail Hollow Club measures in at a lengthy 7,575 yards and will play as a par 72. This 1961 design seems to appeal to a lot of players on TOUR and as such the track earned a nod to host the 2017 PGA Championship.
Through the years the course has received a plethora of upgrades from legends like Arnold Palmer and Tom Fazio, and along with the PGA Championship Quail Hollow will also serve as the site of the 2021 Presidents Cup.
Like many courses on TOUR (e.g. The Bear Trap, The Snake Pit, etc.), Quail Hollow has its own tough final stretch of three holes which is known as the Green Mile, and to some is considered the toughest closing holes on the PGA TOUR schedule. For more on this, we’ll break down the stats that are needed to dominate this course in our Fantasy Notes section below.
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Weather Forecast for Charlotte, NC
It looks like the players will see some beautiful skies and low-80s temperatures later in the week at Quail Hollow. Thursday will be the coldest day with temperatures in the 60s, but there are no threats of high wind at all and the course should play as true as ever this week.
Last Year’s Results from the Wells Fargo Championship
It was the ‘Rory Show’ in Round 3 at Quail Hollow last year after he carded an impressive 11-under-par 61 to set the 18-hole record. McIlroy kept his foot on the gas in Round 4 to close out a seven-shot victory and become the first two-time winner at this event.
Rory was three shots off of the lead after 36-holes but something clicked for McIlory Saturday which helped him earn not only the win, but also card some impressive course records, including the 72-hole record at Quail Hollow (267).
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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday (May 5, 2016) – Friday (May 6, 2016) 4:00 pm- 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
- Saturday (May 7, 2016) – Sunday (May 8, 2016) 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm (CBS)
- Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
- Thursday-Friday, 7:00 am – 3:00 pm ET (featured groups), 3:00 – 6:00 pm (featured holes).
- RADIO: Thursday-Friday, 12:00-7:00pm EST, Saturday- Sunday 1:00 – 6:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Wells Fargo Championship this Week
It’s finally May and the fantasy golf season is officially in full swing. There are literally hundreds of leagues to choose from this week and are a just a few of our favorites:
- PGA $3.5M FANTASY GOLF MILLIONAIRE SUPERSATELLITE: Here’s a chance to earn your way into the big game with a 3 dollar entry satellite. But like we said last week, if you’re going to go this route, at least take a stab at five lineups here. Spend $15 for a chance to win $100 (5 x $20 each) worth of entries to the big show. Who knows, that $15 bucks could win you $1 million dollars come June.
- PGA $160K 3-WOOD [$160,000 GUARANTEED]: For those of you who want to up the stakes a little bit, we suggest taking a stab at $300 entry event with a max of 592 players and a chance to bank $25K for first prize.
- No Halftime: The No Halftime match-ups are heating up this time of year and usually beginning on Wednesday you will start to see some nice match-ups that may entice you to gamble. And if not, you can simply create a matchup and we’re pretty sure someone will come along and snag it.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Wells Fargo Championship
Here’s what we know about Quail Hollow; its long and the greens are very tricky. What makes this year even more of a challenge is the fact that the greens we’re replaced at the beginning of last season and this event will mark the second go around on the new putting surfaces. McIlroy didn’t seem to have much of an issue with them since as he was dropping birdies all day long last year (27 to be exact). Given the track’s length and flat-stick challenges we’ll be putting a premium on our usual favorites; Driving Distance and Strokes Gained Putting.
Accuracy is not much of a concern this week if you have a strong scrambling game. Last year, McIlroy was T19 in Accuracy but finished 5th in Scrambling for the week. If you’re a strong putter who can hit the long ball, scramble a bit, and hit a few greens in regulation, Quail Hollow shouldn’t be much of an issue.
With such a broad range of common stats, we dug a bit deeper to find that one stat that separates the boys from the men this week and that stat is undoubtedly Par 5 Scoring. This Par 72 offers four Par 5s that need to be converted at birdie or better for a strong chance to win this week. Failure to convert those critical hole will knock guys right down the leaderboard in this kind of field.
So the big question this week is ‘do you take Rory and build a sleeper squad around him?’ or ‘Do you bench McIlroy and grab some more more muscle in the mid-tier range?’ The good news is that we’ll have you covered either way, and we’ll be giving our Premium Members sample rosters both with and without McIlroy this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship
Horse Pick: While most are scratching their heads over McIlroy and Scott, we think it’s a no-brainer to run with McIlroy on one roster and make Dustin Johnson the stud on another roster (if you like to play multiple rosters). But if you can only take one our pick this week as the ‘must-have’ selection is definitely the horse for the course multiple winner, and course record owner, Rory McIlroy.
Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 4/1 FPPG: 75.93 GPFP: 72.13 Salary: $12,800): Okay so last week we picked the top priced player (Jason Day) and caught some flack for it because he was ‘too expensive’ to fit other players of quality. Well, we fit the sub-$8,500 Lovemark with him and won some nice cash as a result. So bottom line, it can be done. We know Rory hasn’t exactly been lighting it up this season and so far he’s been overshadowed by the wins of Day, Scott, Spieth, etc. However, if there is ever a place for Rory to pick up his first win of the season, its definitely at Quail Hollow. Here’s a solid stat to hang your hat on: Rory has five top 10s in six appearances here including two wins and a T2 finish. He also bombs the ball off of the tee and co-leads the TOUR in par-5 scoring. That’s a recipe for success if we ever saw one.
- Scrambling: 80th
- Par-5 Scoring: 1st
- Driving Distance: 13th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 94th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 29th
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 6th
Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 89.67 GPFP: 112.98 Salary:$10,400): We rarely put much love into DJ due largely to his inability to close, but we love his game on this course. Dustin hasn’t been to Quail Hollow since 2011 but that doesn’t bother us because if anyone on TOUR is due it’s this guy. DJ has top fives finishes in four of last five starts and he comes in ranking 2nd in birdie average, T12 in par-5 scoring, and 4th in driving distance. His putter is pretty solid and if he finds these Quail Hollow greens in regulation this week, he could be a major contender with the short stick while making a ton of birdies or better. If you can;t squeeze in Rory, we’d suggest saving $2,400 on your roster and building a team around this guy.
- Scrambling: 112th
- Par-5 Scoring: 12th
- Driving Distance: 4th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 19th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 84th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 6th
5/3/16 Update – According to sources at PGATOUR.com, Dustin Johnson has withdrawn from the Wells Fargo Championship. Therefore, we will be substituting Adam Scott in the #2 slot in place of DJ. Here are the details.
Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 96.89 GPFP: 108.52 Salary: $10,600): With DJ out, Scott is the logical second choice in this high-tier and you’ll only need to spend an extra $200 to obtain him. Although he missed the cut in his last three trips here, Scott is a different player all-around this season and he’s well rested since his T42 at Augusta. Like DJ, the Aussie hits the ball a mile off the tee but he ranks much better in par 5 scoring (1st) than Johnson. His poor Masters performance aside Adam Scott is having a career-year in 2016 as evidenced by these rankings: 1st in scoring average, 1st in strokes gained total, 1st in eagles, and 2nd in strokes gained tee-to-green. On paper he is a better pick than DJ, you’ll just need to spend a little extra to get him.
- Scrambling: 100th
- Par-5 Scoring: 1st
- Driving Distance: 13th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 39th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 84th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 1st
Charles Howell III(Golficity Odds 35/1 FPPG: 73.90 GPFP: 95.33 Salary: $8,100): It wouldn’t be fair for us to pick anyone $8,200 and up in the mid-tier range since we stacked the deck with two five figure salary players already. That said, we’re beginning to feel a bit like a broken record when we say this about CH3, but he’s a fantasy stud, and he continues to prove it! Howell has made fifteen cuts out of sixteen events this season; he’s a grinder and he always puts up fantasy points. Not only does he have the stamina to make it into the weekend at event after event, he also has enough power off the tee to easily shorten this course like the guys listed above. He has four Top 10 finishes already on the season and is coming into Charlotte on the heels of a T11 at the Zurich. We suggest continuing to ride the CH3 train until it runs out of gas because his game is hot right now and should transition over to Quail Hollow nicely—and for a bargain at $8,100. Just check out some of these stats…
- Scrambling: 10th
- Par-5 Scoring: 16th
- Driving Distance: 18th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 60th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 38th
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 8th
Jaime Lovemark (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 63.50 GPFP: 81.28 Salary: $7,900): He was the reason we cashed big time last week and we loved every part of his game—until his approach shot on the 2nd playoff hole that is. Regardless of the fact that Jaime let a Zurich win slip through his fingers, this boy has power and his short game looked money last week. His chipping game was on fire last week as he dropped shot after shot to about a foot from the pin each time and he was getting home in two without a hitch on the Par 5s. Put that all together and for a sub-$8K price tag you can score a fantastic fantasy player this week who can add a ton of points to your roster.
- Scrambling: 7th
- Par-5 Scoring: 16th
- Driving Distance: 9th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 45th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 92nd
* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 7th
Kevin Chappell (Golficity Odds 48/1 FPPG: 65.42 GPFP: 59.53 Salary: $7,900): Chappell is a decent long ball hitter who’s been making a splash as of late. In his last four events he’s managed to finish 2nd, MC, T9, T4 as part of a total of four Top 10s on the season. Chappell has shown some serious signs of life over the last month and he’s slowing climbing up the FedExCup leaderboard. As far as key stats go he currently ranks 16th in strokes gained tee-to-green and 24th in the all-around. The only question mark that remains is his putter, which could hold him back, but if he can drop a few key putts he’ll be right in the mix come Sunday.
- Scrambling: 43rd
- Par-5 Scoring: 61st
- Driving Distance: 50th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 157th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 42nd
* Most Notable Stat: Eagles: 12th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship
Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 52.75 GPFP: 42.20 Salary: $7,300): The former World No. 1 Luke Donald is our only pick this week without the power factor, and we’re fine with just one. Although his best days still seem to be behind him Donald has quietly finished in the Top 26 in four of his last five events including a T2 in Harbour Town three weeks ago. He’s an excellent scrambler and has a decent putting stroke. Despite his driving issues, he has the scrambling game to get the job down for your fantasy team.
- Scrambling: 6th
- Par-5 Scoring: 129th
- Driving Distance: 166th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 70th
- Greens-In-Regulation: 66th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 34th
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship
Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 85/1 FPPG: 48.27 GPFP: 63.48 Salary: $6,400): As it turns out we picked Jhonattan Vegas a week too early when he missed the cut in Texas but fired back with a T5 at the Zurich. That clutch performance in New Orleans earned him his third Top 10 of the season. At $6,400 it’s definitely a wise move to add a player with that high of a FPPG and a long drive on a long course. Vegas also ranks 6th in GIR which could help boost him to another top 10 finish this week.
- Scrambling: 49th
- Par-5 Scoring: 31st
- Driving Distance: 17th
- Strokes Gained Putting: 63rd
- Greens-In-Regulation: 6th
* Most Notable Stat: Greens In Regulation: 6th
Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week
Sample DraftKings Lineup With Rory McIlroy
Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Rory McIlroy
5/3/16 – Updated Sample Lineup Without DJ
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic
- Jason Day (Golficity Odds 4/1): T5 ($255,500)
- Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 18/1): T20 ($64,909)
- Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 38/1): P2 ($616,000)
- Aaron Baddeley (Golficity Odds 45/1): T58 ($15,330)
- Ricky Barnes (Golficity Odds 55/1): MC
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic
- David Hearn (Golficity Odds 78/1): T20 ($64,909)
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic
- Morgan Hoffman (Golficity Odds 100/1): T72 ($13,230)
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Flickr
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