Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the BMW Championship

BMW Championship 2017 Fantasy Preview

We are very much heading into the final straight of the regular PGA TOUR season of 2017, and at the culmination of this BMW Championship event, the penultimate of the FedExCup, we will know the identities of the 30 men who will battle it out for the big bucks at East Lake; the home of the Tour Championship.

It seems like a lifetime ago when Justin Thomas outwitted Jordan Spieth to claim the Dell Technologies crown – the second time Spieth was bested in a week. The silver lining for him is that he leads the FedExCup rankings heading into the final pair of tournaments, and he will know that one more strong showing could be enough for him to secure yet another large payday.

While those near the top of the standings can play slightly within themselves this week, those in and around the top 30 have got it all to do. There is the very real prospect that major winners like Henrik Stenson (26th) and Jason Day (28th) could miss out on the trip to East Lake, while Sergio Garcia (34th), Phil Mickelson (36th), and Patrick Cantlay (41st) will be looking to force their way into the reckoning.

We’re heading out to Illinois this week and the Conway Farms Club in Lake Forest; the location for Jim Furyk’s history-making round of 59 in 2013 – at the time only the sixth sub-60 round in PGA TOUR history. Could we see more low-scoring heroics this time around?

Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the 17th tee…

Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round of the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston on September 4, 2017 in Norton, Massachusetts. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Dell Technologies Championship

First let’s start by recapping last week’s only fantasy golf content, the Omega European Masters.  It’s a been a solid run for our European Fantasy picks as we successfully went Winner – Winner – 2nd (playoff) over the last three weeks.

As we came into the week seeking the three-peat, all looked great for Scott Hend before falling short to Matthew Fitzpatrick in a playoff. Despite the second place finish, Hend still put up a ton of fantasy points against his low $7,800 price tag.

Regarding the PGA TOUR, we left off with the Dell Technologies Championship and our staff successfully made all seven cuts in our main Monday picks and all five selections from our Tuesday Sleeper Report made it through to the weekend.

Despite 100% attendance to the weekend, our best finishers were Casey (T4 – 94 FP) and Cantlay (T13 – 76 FP).

BMW Championship 2017 Field

We’re down to the top 70 left standing in the race for the FedExCup, and so all of the usual suspects will be in Illinois this week.

We nearly lost Big Phil, but a huge performance at the Dell Technologies – Lefty finally finding his game to finish T6 – has booked his spot at Conway Farms and given himself an outside shot of returning to East Lake, where he triumphed in 2009.

Emiliano Grillo left it even later to book his spot: a final round of 66 at TPC Boston witnessing him fly up the Dell leaderboard to finish solo 22nd and squeak into the top 70 at 62nd. Could that be the catalyst he needs for a good showing in Illinois?

And watch out for the ‘bubble boys’ this week: Day (28), Gary Woodland (29), Bill Haas (30), Mackenzie Hughes (31), Xander Schauffele (32), and Hudson Swafford (33) will all have eyes on a place at East Lake.

Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth of the United States stand on the…

Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth of the United States stand on the ninth tee during round one of the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston on September 1, 2017 in Norton, Massachusetts. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

This BMW Championship event is hosted on a rotational basis, and so while in recent years it has been played at Cherry Hills and Crooked Stick this week we return to Conway Farms, the scene of the 2013 and 2015 editions of the event.

Conway Farms is a Tom Fazio design that was opened in 1991, and as well as hosting the BMW it was also the venue for US Open Sectional Qualifying in 2008 and the US Mid-Amateur Championship in 2012.

It will play at approximately 7,200 yards for its Par 71, and is a stretch that has been described by a few different players as ‘Links-style’ in its design. Perhaps it’s no surprise that Jason Day and Zach Johnson are the last two winners here then. Indeed, in 2015 other names to feature inside the top-10 were Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson, themselves no slouches on the Links, so perhaps that is an angle worth exploring in more detail.

There is nothing to fear off the tee with wide fairways giving the players ample room, and while the fescue rough will be up it should rarely be a factor even in the medium-strength winds expected.

The Bentgrass greens are small and fast, with tiering and elevation changes meaning that quality approach play is the central theme this week.

Luke Donald held the course record for a number of years prior to Furyk’s magnificence in 2013, and as club ambassador arguably he knows the layout better than anyone. And while his thoughts are not exactly revelatory, they do bear repeating. “Aesthetically stunning, with a great variety of holes, it’s a prairieland course with a lot of fescue so keep it straight,” he said.

“If you’re in the fescue, you’re probably not going to find your ball, but like any golf course, hit fairways, hit greens and make putts. That’s usually a pretty good recipe for success.”

Jason Day won by six clear shots in 2015, and nobody gained more SG than him from tee-to-green. Clearly, this is the classic ball-striker’s test where a solid all-round game is key. Approach play is paramount to ensure manageable putts are left – there’s ledges, quadrants, run-offs and all sorts of fun and games here!

Jason Day of Australia plays his shot from the tenth tee during the…

Jason Day of Australia plays his shot from the tenth tee during the Final Round of the BMW Championship at Conway Farms Golf Club on September 20, 2015 in Lake Forest, Illinois. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Lake Forest, Illinois

The forecast this week in Lake Forest is mercifully peaceful. There will be a mixture of sunshine and cloud in the lead-up to the first tee, and Thursday itself looks set to be a decent day with minimal chance of rain.

Two things are worth noting however: the wind will pick up, from 2 mph at 8am to 8 mph at 2pm, and yet the humidity drops throughout the day. At this early stage, we could argue that the early starters will have an advantage even in this small field, no cut tournament.

Friday and Saturday look similar with bright sunshine and strong winds – up to 11mph on both days, and you just know those will be stronger at the local level. It has been noted before that the wind is Conway Farms’ best protection from low scoring, so watch out for that.

At this early stage Sunday has something of a question mark next to it, with ‘scattered thunderstorms’ in the forecast throughout the day. It might just be a case of keeping our fingers crossed that those pass by with the minimum of fuss.

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week

This is the final full slate week of the 2016/17 PGA TOUR campaign, so let’s make the most of it by investing our funds into the best available contests. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have come to the party, but here’s the pick of the bunch from DK:

• PGA $600k Dogleg Championship Encore: Here’s a final opportunity to bag the $100k top prize thanks to this $33 entry contest, with the top 25 players winning a minimum of $1000.
• PGA $400k Par 5 Championship: Want to win the big bucks but strapped for cash? This $5 entry contest is perfect, with a top prize of $50k and the first 100 players home also winning $100.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship

Rather than over-complicating matters, the selection criteria for the BMW Championship are simple enough to follow: draft quality ball-strikers in decent form.

That has been the case with the past two winners at Conway Farms in Jason Day and Zach Johnson. Day had been in outrageous form leading into the 2015 edition, winning on three of his prior five starts, while ZJ‘s formline into the 2013 event read 27-5-8-4-6-2.

You can make a clear distinction between the two, however. In 2013 conditions were cold and windy, and it became a bit of a grind – no surprise to see Johnson prevail then. But two years later conditions were wet, super wet, and with preferred lies the action just became a point-and-shoot contest. It’s no wonder that Day, at that time the most in-form player on the planet, took the honors.

This Conway Farms course has only one real protective element, and that’s the weather! With things set reasonably fair this week in the forecast, a low score is expected.

The yardage is on the low side, but that’s not to say that long hitting won’t be an advantage. Many players won’t take driver off the tee, but with a couple of reachable Par 5s giving it a rip could be key: Day played the longer holes in -11, including a pair of eagles, on his way to victory.

In an interview Jordan Spieth has compared Conway Farms to Harbour Town, the Links-style track that hosts the RBC Heritage, while other shortish Fazio designs worthy of correlation include Eagle Point (host of this year’s Wells Fargo Championship) and Firestone, home to the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

Is there a Links, erm, link? If we look at the players who have featured on the leaderboards in 2013 and 2015, clearly there’s an abundance of players who perform well in British style conditions. But then, these are quality players who have done the business pretty much everywhere, so it’s a correlation we’re taking with a pinch of salt.

And this is a FedExCup event, remember, and look at the last ten winners of those: Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson (x2), Rory McIlroy (x2), Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day (x2), and Rickie Fowler. There you have a list of major winners and surely-will-win-one contenders, and players who have occupied the top 20 in the world rankings for a number of years.

Basically, we can expect the cream to rise to the top this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Paul Casey (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 72.7, GPFP: 71.41 Salary: $9,200)

With no cut this week, clearly the competitive advantage of simply getting your six drafted players into the weekend is gone. And that means that to take down the big money contests, you’re going to need as many of your half-dozen to feature in the top-15 as possible to maximise your scoring power.

So, this week and probably for this week only, our optimal strategy is to draft six class acts who all occupy the upper to mid-range bracket – and note that all seven of the guys that feature on this list can slip into any line-up based on their salaries.

The first cab off the rank is Paul Casey, who is undoubtedly playing better golf right now than at any other point in his career.

The Englishman recorded his sixth straight top-20 finish last time out at the Dell Technologies – four of which are actually top-5s, and he really fits the bill if we are attempting to swamp the leaderboard with our picks this week.

We’re not going to go into the whole ‘nappy factor’ thing, but Casey’s wife is heavily pregnant with their second child and due to give birth this week. That can go either way for a player – the inspirational lease of life afforded by fatherhood, or the natural ‘taking your eye off the ball’ effect – but Casey seems like the kind of guy who would thrive in such a situation.

He finished T23 on his only other start at Conway Farms, and assuming parenthood doesn’t alter his mindset a much-improved showing on that is expected.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 2nd
• Greens in Regulation – 3rd
• Scoring Average – 7th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Henrik Stenson (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 68.4, GPFP: NA Salary: $8,900)

Next on our list of ‘classy operators at a decent price’ is Henrik Stenson, who won on his penultimate start at the Wyndham Championship.

The Swede is on record as saying he is much happier with his game now after a run of poor form, and six top-20s in his last seven starts is the proof in the pudding. The fact that two of those were majors (T11 at the British Open, T13 at the PGA Championship) and two were high-profile non-majors (T16 at the Players’ Championship, T17 at WGC Bridgestone) adds further fuel to the fire.

His less-than-driver approach might just work nicely at Conway Farms – he was T10 here in 2015, and clearly as a former British Open winner he is comfortable playing in windy conditions.

In such illustrious company, Stenson could be a sneaky play this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 69.03%
• SG: Approach-the-Green – +0.718
• SG: Tee-to-Green – +0.840

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Justin Rose (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 69.7, GPFP: 55.07Salary: $8,500)

There was a fallow period immediately after Rose’s Augusta heroics that threatened to end his season early, but after rediscovering his swing and seemingly fighting off a back problem the Englishman is back to his best.

Consecutive top-10s at the Northern Trust and Dell Technologies confirm as much, and most pleasing is Rose’s recent tee-to-green form: he ranked top ten in both of those events, and second for SG: Approach at the Northern Trust. His irons are dialled in right now.

Rose finished T13 here in 2015 and ranked inside the top-10 once again, so assuming some putts drop he has got every chance of adding to the list of quality winners of FedExCup events.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 10th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 12th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Marc Leishman (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 68.0, GPFP: 63.05 Salary: $7,700)

The Aussie has never played Conway Farms before, but given the Links-style connotations he will surely enjoy this stretch.

Leishman arrives in Illinois in good form having finished third at the Dell Technologies Championship, and while that performance was indebted to a hot putter you don’t have to look far for inspiration with his irons: the Arnold Palmer Invitational winner ranked first for SG: Approach at the Northern Trust despite missing the cut!

He’s not the most stylish player around, but don’t let that fool you: most of his peers are aware of how good the 33-year-old is. Fourteen top-25 finishes from just 23 starts speaks volumes of his class and consistency.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 22nd
• SG: Approach the Green – 24th

Low-Tier Pick:

Phil Mickelson (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 64.0, GPFP: 60.73 Salary: $7,300)

We’ve checked through the files and this is the first time we have drafted Phil this season! That seems remarkable on paper, but is perhaps testament to the less-than-stellar campaign that old lefty has enjoyed.

But here comes the but: he was excellent last time out at the Dell Technologies, finishing T6 and ranking seventh for SG: Tee-to-Green. Phil, it seems, is back.

He’s never really taken to Conway Farms, finishing T32 and T33 in 2015 and ’13, but there’s no reason why he can’t do better. The extra room off the tee will please him, and the requirement for a quality short game is right up his street. Unlike some, if the wind does get up he won’t be perturbed.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach the Green – 12th
• Birdie Average – 17th
• SG: Tee to Green – 37th

Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Patrick Reed (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 63.9, GPFP: 80.47 Salary: $8,000)

Given how well he’s been playing of late, it’s borderline offensive that Reed is salaried at $100 less than Ian Poulter and just $100 more than Kevin Na.

It’s a headscratcher, as here we have a FedExCup event winner and Ryder Cup stalwart, so his price in relation to his chances of finishing top-10 this week doesn’t quite add up.

Reed has finished inside the top-20 in seven of his last nine starts – that is outstanding by anyone’s measure of success, and while he’s never set Conway Farms alight you would argue he has never arrived here in such consistently excellent form.

Indifferent off the tee, this track will prove forgiving to Reed and allow him to excel in an area where he is truly world-class: with a short iron or wedge in hand.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 5th
• SG: Around the Green – 52nd
• SG: Tee to Green – 58th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Daniel Berger (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 63.6, GPFP: 68.37 Salary: $7,500)

For our last BMW Championship pick we’re taking a leap of faith with the ultimate horses-for-courses guy.

Berger’s resume is packed with countless repeat performances, including the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, which he successfully defended this year, plus back-to-back quality at the Phoenix Open (T10 in 2015, T7 in ’17), the Houston Open (T5 for the past two years), and the WGC HSBC Championship (T2 and T11 in his last two visits).

We tell you this because the 24-year-old finished solo second here in 2015, and so by the prevailing logic he should go well again this week.

He hasn’t shot the lights out of late (61-33-MC), but as we know Berger is a player who can rip it up on his favoured courses at the drop of a hat.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach: 9th
• Birdie Average: 25th
• SG: Tee to Green: 29th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineup 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.69%” bar_text=”21 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.24%” bar_text=”58 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.56%” bar_text=”108 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”17.94%” bar_text=”7 out of 39 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”12.82%” bar_text=”5 out of 39 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.72″ bar_text=”204 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the BMW Championship with other Premium Members.

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