Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – THE PLAYERS Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship 2016 Fantasy Preview

THE PLAYERS marks yet another huge PGA TOUR event this week and all of the big dogs will be barking at TPC Sawgrass.  Big events also mean big fantasy payouts and this week DraftKings is even offering a FREE entry into their $400,000 event for new depositors using the code LOFT at checkout.  If you’ve never played DraftKings, this week is your chance to try for $100,000 with that free entry.

Rickie Fowler comes into TPC Sawgrass this week ready to defend his title as the OWGR No. 5 ranked player in the world, but some doubt his ability to go back-to-back against such a strong field.  Adding to those doubts is the fact that Fowler hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since September and THE PLAYERS has never crowned a back-to-back winner.

Jordan Spieth is another big name who will be back in action this week after his meltdown on the 12th hole at Augusta and all eyes will be on him this week to see if he can bounce back.  Spieth has been spending some time up at Oakmont preparing for the U.S. Open and will undoubtedly be priced in the top 3 on DraftKings this week (along with Rory McIlroy and Jason Day).

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week James Hahn surprised the fantasy world with his win and our best finish was our horse pick Rory McIlroy who charged up the leaderboard Sunday en route to a T4.  No one expected a guy who comes in on the heels of eight consecutive cuts to go on an win.  With the Wells Fargo Championship all said and done we saw six of our seven picks (including sleepers) make the cut putting our total fantasy dollars earned per event up to $22.528 million on the season—an average of $919,270 per week.

A photo posted by Golf Channel (@golfchannel) on May 9, 2016 at 6:49am PDT

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report also produced a perfect five for five with our best finishers being Patton Kizzire (T24) and Robert Streb (T28)—all of the selections on the sleeper list came off 50/1 or greater Vegas odds.

Most fantasy players feel that players need high finishes to earn them more points.  While finishing position obviously helps, it’s also what players do on he course which helps you win in weekly fantasy games.  For example, a player who makes an Eagle on Sunday but finishes T28 can still wind-up ahead in fantasy points over a player who finishes T24—for more you can view the entire DraftKings scoring system here.  For this reason we always advise picking players who find ways to make birdies or better for the track in question to maximize your fantasy points for the week.

THE PLAYERS Championship 2016  Field

THE PLAYERS field always looks like a major and this week is no different as we’ll see 46 of the Top 50 players in the world teeing off this Thursday.

With so many top dogs to pick from, fantasy players will need to wade through names like Adam Scott, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler (just to name a few) when building their rosters this week.

As of Monday there are no signs of Tiger and the reports thus far more or less confirm that he will not be in the field this week—not that we would trust picking him yet anyway.

Hometown boy Jim Furyk will make his second start of the season this week after being laid up due to wrist injury but again, not a name most will trust this week anyway as both his age and lingering injury continue to raise more questions than answers.

No matter what your selection strategy this week keep in mind that you’ll need plenty of solid sleeper selections because there is going to be way to many high priced players in this field to build a balanced roster.  You’ll need need to base your rosters this week off one high priced player and a number of mid-tier and sleeper selections who can play a supporting roll.  More on that and other strategies in a minute, but first let’s take a closer look at TPC Sawgrass.

This Week’s Course Overview

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) measures in at 7,215 yards and will play as a par 72.  This year marks the venue’s 35th season hosting this huge event known to most as golf’s 5th major.

Although this world-famous track needs no introduction most will recognize its signature 17th hole, a 137-yard par 3 over water which has been the linked to so many heartbreaks over the years.  Who can forget this one from Sergio Garcia in 2013:

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLfwhnXjaUc&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

As always, we’ll breakdown past performances here and stats to highlight when making your selections this week to find what kind of skill sets work best on this course in our fantasy notes section below.

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Weather Forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Other than Friday’s possible thunderstorms, this week should present beautiful 85-88 degree and sunny Florida weather for The PLAYERS.

Winds are expected to be at around 10-12 mph all week which means as usual, plenty of Pro V1s are expected to be lost to the water on 17.

Last Year’s Results from THE PLAYERS Championship

How nice would it be to birdie the ruthless 17th at Sawgrass three times in one round in front of tens of thousands of people?  Well that’s exactly what Rickie Fowler did last year in what has been called the greatest finish in the event’s history.

The young star easily erased a five-shot deficit in the last six holes on Sunday which forced a three player playoff.  The most impressive part about his finish was his birdie/eagle/birdie/birdie finish which smashed a closing 4-hole record on the course.  That impressive streak got him into a playoff with veteran Sergio Garcia and new TOUR star Kevin Kisner.   The trio then started on hole 16 where all three guys made par and afterwards Kisner and Fowler went on to birdie 17.

After Garcia was eliminated on 18, Fowler and Kisner headed back to the 17th and that is where Rickie stuck his shot (which most thought would find the water) to within five feet.   Kisner missed his 12-footer and Rickie banked his putt to take the trophy.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLWw47dQO5o&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday (May 12, 2016) – Friday (May 13, 2016) 1:00 pm- 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (May 14, 2016) – Sunday (May 15, 2016) 2:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (NBC)

• Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
  • Thursday-Friday, 7:30 am – 7:00 pm ET (featured groups), 9:00am – 7:00 pm (featured holes).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 8:30 am – 7:00 pm ET (featured groups), 12:00pm – 7:00 pm (featured holes).

• RADIO: Thursday-Friday, 12:00-7:00pm EST, Saturday- Sunday 1:00 – 7:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for THE PLAYERS Championship this Week

As mentioned at the top, the biggest prize this week is the $100,000 payout to first place in DraftKings’ “Drive the Green” event.  Here’s all the information you need to get involved.

• PGA $400K DRIVE THE GREEN [$100K TO 1ST]: First timers to DraftKings can make their first deposit (as little as $5 bucks) and get a free entry into this $3 dollar event by using coupon code LOFT at signup.  There’s no doubt this one will be a packed house with just over 153K rosters expected to play.  Pick a solid roster and have two awesome sleepers who finish Top 5 and you could potentially see your $5 account on turn into $100,000 on Sunday evening.  Tell your boss we said high when you ditch out after winning the jackpot.

• No Halftime App: No Halftime has been popular with all you iOS users for a while now but as of a few weeks ago Android users can now get in on the fun as well.  If you’re not into the roster thing or you just want to give a new format a try No Halftime is worth a look.  This player vs. player (round vs. round) fantasy game eliminates the salary and just offers a coin flip betting strategy. Its fast, fun, and pretty genius.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for THE PLAYERS Championship

There’s more to Sawgrass than just a chip shot par-3 surrounded by water.  This track will force you to work for every shot and fairways are as tight as they can be.  With that in mind, our big focus this week will be on both Strokes Gained Putting and Accuracy.  After learning what we needed to learn about this track and past editions, we’ll also be putting a premium on Scrambling and Birdie Average—and you should too.

Looking at recent past editions of this event, both Fowler (2015 winner) and Kaymer (2014 winner) finished in the Top 10 in Scrambling and in the Top 20 in Strokes Gained Putting.

It doesn’t seem like Driving Distance matters much here—DJ ranked 1st in that category here last year and finished T69 and Bubba owned it in 2014 and ended up T48 on Sunday.  Instead accuracy is where you want to put your money this week and of course we’ll be tying in all of our usual statistical metrics like our Golficity Fantasy Prediction Stats, Vegas Odds, current trends, and a whole lot more.

Good luck this week!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

Quick note: For those of you new to our Premium Service, our seven picks are designed to help you round out a six-man roster.  The names and ideas we offer are to help you craft the best roster you can.  Although we’d look great if we picked the top seven guys in roster salary every week, it would do you no good.  Instead, our tiering system will help you fit as many of our well-thought out and researched picks to your roster and still stay under the salary cap.

Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 91.28 GPFP: 112.27 Salary: $11,400): Rory is the clear favorite for most this week and his price tag certainly reflects it, but Jordan is the better putter with a lot to prove after his Masters collapse.  By now we’re pretty sure he’s forgotten that little meltdown and we’re pretty confident he will be ready to execute a game plan this week.  Jordan finished T4 in his debut here in 2014 but missed the cut last year, so let’s break down his stats a little to see how he’ll fare this week:  Most importantly, he leads the Tour in Putting Average and Birdies or Better Conversions.  Converting birdies is the key to winning golf events and Jordan makes it look easy.  The fact that this is his first competitive start since his Augusta collapse does scare us a bit, but we’ve seen him bounce back with plenty of finesse.  His ability to dominate the big events against top tier names is insane, and shouldn’t be overlooked.  Here’s a taste of what Jordan has done in his last five majors dating back to Augusta: T2, 2nd, T4, 1st, 1st.  Sprinkle in a few WGC Top 10s and what you get is the ultimate favorite when it comes to big time events!

• Scrambling: 51st
• Birdie Average: 2nd
• Driving Accuracy: 67th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 20th

* Most Notable Stat: Putting Average: 1st

Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 72.29 GPFP: 62.89 Salary:$9,700): Some may opt for Sergio in the sub-$10K range this week as he is the true horse for the course.  But Garcia’s inability to close here lead us to choose Matsuyama instead, especially given his accuracy, putting prowess, and power.  This guy is a gamer and could be a major winner this season without a doubt.  In both of his chances at TPC Sawgrass, he’s managed a Top 25 (T17 in 2015 and a T23 in 2014).  This guy is money from tee to green and his T11 at Quail Hollow showed us all last why he ranks 4th on TOUR in birdies or better.  This could be a Spieth/Matsuyama showdown if both of their putters stay hot this week.

• Scrambling: 85th
• Birdie Average: 3rd
• Driving Accuracy: 91st
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 147th

* Most Notable Stat: Putting Average: 10th

Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 29/1 FPPG: 72.55 GPFP: 80.53 Salary: $9,100): Honestly we thought we’d never select this name again but we simply cannot overlook his recent play and eagerness to hoist another trophy.  We saw Furyk snap a winless drought and we think this may just be the stage for the lefty veteran to do the same.  Mickelson has one of the hottest putters on the PGA TOUR right now and he’s being overlooked by a lot of fantasy players this week.  Despite his three missed cuts this season, Phil has four Top 10s and seven Top 25s on the year, including his most recent T4 at Quail Hollow last week.  Accuracy is his worst enemy and we’re gambling on that this week, but take a look at some of his other stats:  Strokes Gained Putting (3rd), Strokes Gained Total (4th), Birdie Average (9th), Scoring Average (1st), Scrambling (9th), and the list goes on.

• Scrambling: 9th
• Birdie Average: 9th
• Driving Accuracy: 175th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 3rd

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 1st

Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 75.65 GPFP: 60.52 Salary: $7,800): Here’s a name you haven’t heard in a while.  Na has been resting since his T4 in Harbour Town back in mid-April but he’s a solid ball striker with some in-depth course knowledge.  Evidence of that is the fact that he owns three top 10s here since 2009 including his T6 here last year.  Kevin currently ranks 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and we love that he’s sub-$8,000 in salary—underpriced guy if we ever saw one!  Obviously we love his stats for the course, but let’s just hope he brings the putter…

• Scrambling: 46th
• Birdie Average: 20th
• Driving Accuracy: 48th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 105th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 12th

Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 58/1 FPPG: 66.42 GPFP: 53.13 Salary: $7,500): We wouldn’t read too much into his (extremely) rare missed cut last week at Quail Hollow.  Prior to that poor showing Haas notched four Top 24s in a row including two Top 10s.  Overall on the season Bill has four Top 10s and seven Top 25 finishes.  Last year he tied for fourth at TPC Sawgrass with an impressive 67-68 in Rounds 2 and 3 respectively.  Combine his recent play with his past performances here at THE PLAYERS and you’ve got a solid selection for a great price.

• Scrambling: 29th
• Birdie Average: 122nd
• Driving Accuracy: 34th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 91st

* Most Notable Stat:  Scrambling: 29th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

Francesco Molinari (Golficity Odds 90/1 FPPG: 56.70 GPFP: 45.36 Salary: $6,700):  Molinari is a true sleeper pick if we ever saw one.  He’s only made the cut here twice in five starts but both were top 10s—and that includes his T6 in 2014.  A lot of analysts consider him to have a “up-and-down” golf game and we agree.  However, he seems to be trending upward as evidenced by his Top 20 finishes in his has two starts.  He’s a solid ball striker with a decent putting stroke and if he can hang in there until the weekend he’s sure to add some nice fantasy points to the bottom of your roster this week.

• Scrambling: 70th
• Birdie Average: 136th
• Driving Accuracy: 108th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 169th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 48th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

Graeme McDowell (Golficity Odds 150/1 FPPG: 56.35 GPFP: 45.08 Salary: $6,500): Sometimes experience helps and in our search for ultra-cheap players with solid accuracy and course knowledge, G-Mac just kept popping up.  We know he hasn’t playing his best lately but either was James Hahn when he missed eight consecutive cuts and then went on to win.  Graeme currently ranks 13th in accuracy which can offer him a slight advantage over these long ball hitters who will be screaming FORE all week.  He may not be making a lot of headlines lately but McDowell already has a win this season and could step it up on the big stage this week for an impressive finish.  For just $6,500 we’d take a Top 15 from G-Mac and be thrilled.

• Scrambling: 62nd
• Birdie Average: 42nd
• Driving Accuracy: 13th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 172nd

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 13th

Sample DraftKings Lineup With Jordan Spieth

Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Jordan Spieth

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 4/1): T4 ($287,438)
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 10/1):  T17 ($95,526)
• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 35/1): MC
• Jaime Lovemark (Golficity Odds 40/1): T53 ($16,589)
• Kevin Chappell (Golficity Odds 48/1) T41 ($22,642)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

• Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 75/1): T71 ($14,089)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

• Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 85/1): T53 ($16,589)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.29%” bar_text=”18 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.29%” bar_text=”39 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”32.00%” bar_text=”8 out of 25 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”5 out of 25 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”72.57″ bar_text=”127 out of 175 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for THE PLAYERS Championship with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr