Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Honda Classic 2015

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Honda Classic

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week the golf world’s highest ranked player steps foot back on U.S. soil for his first PGA TOUR event as he, among others, begins their final preparation before Augusta National.  Rory McIlroy disappointed golf fans in 2013—back when when it was still the “Tiger Show”—but how quickly we forget his horrible season after he returned to such dominating play in 2014.

With two major wins and a WGC title coming in ‘back-to-back-to-back’ fashion, Rory silenced his doubters and once again became the most dominant player in the game in 2014.  In all, McIlroy came in with 12 Top-10 finishes in 2013-2014 and he shows no signs of cooling down either.  Since October, Rory has four tournaments played on the European TOUR where he finished T2, T2, solo second, and first.  Impressive to say the least, and now it’s time to see if he can bring that success back over to the States.  It’s also worth noting that Rory finished P2 here at The Honda Classic last year.

Dustin Johnson has also reemerged with vengeance after facing critics with his 2014 questionable leave of absence.  With a T4 and T2 in his last two tournaments, DJ looks to take the stage again, although this time, he’ll be fighting for a win.  Remember that he’s just two weeks removed from a tie for fourth at Pebble Beach.

Unsurprisingly, Tiger Woods will continue his leave of absence from golf and has chosen to wait for the appropriate time to reenter competitive play.  We will not see him next week at Doral since he since he sits outside of the Top 50 on the World Rankings list, and Woods still remains unconfirmed for Augusta in April.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we opted to pick Dustin Johnson as our Horse Pick over Bubba Watson despite Watson being heavily favored by many other fantasy forecasters.  DJ came in a bit cheaper in salary cap leagues and we felt he had a better game for the course.  Although he ended up losing in a heartbreaking playoff to James Hahn, his T2 finish points we’re enough to give our Premium Members an added boost in their DraftKings, FantasyFeud, VICTIV, and other salary cap leagues.

In total we saw five of our seven picks (including sleepers) make the cut on a challenging Riviera track with a total fantasy dollars earned of just under $800,000 for the week.  With that our fantasy predictions statistics are still sitting pretty above the $915,000 weekly average line for tournament earnings (on the wrap-around season), including an outstanding 86% made-cuts percentage and five runner ups picked in thirteen events.

The Field

This is when the PGA TOUR really starts to get exciting.  Players from around the world will now begin to come together on U.S. soil to kick off their Augusta workouts.  As mentioned eariler, World No.1 ranked Rory McIlroy is making his first U.S. start since September and will most likely be the favorite among what will arguably be the toughest field in golf so far this season.  With that in mind, and given Rory’s undoubtedly high price tag this week, picking a solid salary cap or pick’em league for The Honda Classic will require twice the amount of research.  We’ll do plenty of that heavy lifting for you in our picks segment below.

Another notable that will appear on the PGA TOUR for the first time this year is World Ranked No.11 Martin Kaymer, who had a stellar 2014 with both THE PLAYERS and U.S. Open trophies under his belt.  So far in 2015, Kaymer has two events played overseas and both were Top 4 finishes.  There is no doubt that Kaymer and McIlroy have been the “sleeping giants” that the PGA TOUR has been waiting to have reappear, and this week we’re in for a treat if they both perform as well as they have been playing overseas.

Other notables stepping onto PGA National this week include Graeme McDowell, Justin Rose, Ryan Palmer, Lee Westwood, Zach Johnson, and Sergio Garcia.  Garcia had perhaps the best chance at winning last week’s Northern Trust Open before choking in usual Sergio fashion coming down the stretch.

The Course

PGA National (Champion Course) clocks in at a solid 7,140 yards and plays as a par 70.  When you play a course that was specifically designed to host major events, odds are its going to have its fair share of challenges.

This Fazio layout was the home of the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship before Jack Nicklaus came in to give it a facelift back in 1990.  Nicklaus created the dreaded, and appropriately named “Bear Trap,” which consists of holes 15, 16, and 17.  This challenging Par 3-4-3 sandwich features a scary threat of water on all holes and usually ends up deciding the outcome of the tournament.

The Par 5 18th has also created its fair share of drama as a dominating playoff hole over the years.  Since 2007, the “Bear Trap” stats include 90% of all bogeys or worse having come from these three holes alone.

Here’s the Golden Bear himself back in 2011 to tell us more about The Bear Trap at PGA National:

Jack Nicklaus on the Bear Trap and Tiger Woods | Inside The Game | Golfing World

Jack Nicklaus discusses the Bear Trap at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort in Florida which he designed, and ask whether Tiger Woods will ever regain his past form. Welcome to Golfing World. Created by IMG Media, the world’s leading sports production company, we are a golf media platform delivering an unrivalled mix of golf content to millions of golfers daily.

Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Unfortunately, the forecast calls for rain all week at PGA National.  Due to this inclement weather the course will undoubtedly be extremely challenging and we should see plenty of score changes throughout.  With a 100% chance rain and thunderstorms kicking off the event on Thursday, tapering down to a 50% possibly of rain for the remaining days, you can expect to see less fairway rolls, and super soft and slow greens.

Overall, the temperature should be in the low 80s, but the wet conditions may delay this even many times and possibly lead to a Monday finish.

2014 Results

It was an amazing finish last year with a 4-man playoff coming between past champion Russell Henley, Ryan Palmer, Russell Knox, and our pick from last year, Rory McIlroy.  Henley dropped a birdie on the tough 18^th to beat out the talented pack and went on to win his second event of the season.

It was all the Rory McIlroy show up until he made double bogey at No.16 and failed to convert his par from a bunker on 17—we told you The Bear Trap had teeth!  Henley carded a 72 to win the trophy and now looks to defend his title among this tough field this week.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the final round of The Honda Classic in 2014:

Russell Henley wins the Honda Classic: Highlights

In the final round of the Honda Classic 2014, Russell Henley outlasted Rory McIlroy, Russell Knox and Ryan Palmer in a one-hole playoff to capture his second career victory. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 2:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

When making your picks keep in mind that the majority of the fantasy world will have Rory on their squad this week.  In fact, McIlroy is such a heavy favorite that in most salary cap leagues, he’s the most expensive by over $4,200!  That’s the biggest spread we’ve seen in a long time in salary cap fantasy golf.  So, should you pick him?  Here are some helpful hints in making your selections this week:

PGA National is no walk in the park, and this week’s wet and soggy conditions won’t make it any easier.  The course was hard enough in 2012 when Rory won it, but since then its gone through some major facelifts, all of which ultimately made it a tougher track.  Loads of bunkers were added throughout the course and holes were stretched to make it play longer.

Most of the time wet weather forces you to throw your stats out the window, but this week (because the field is arguably the most robust yet out of the 14 events played on the PGA TOUR so far), we’re going to laser in on GIR and scrambling.  Long ball hitters will fair well here but as Jack explained in the video above, accuracy is the real key to winning at PGA National.

Advice of the Week:   You can fill up your salary cap roster this week with plenty of solid low priced players. Stick your guns and pick your horse for the week and follow him into battle with a couple $9000 priced players and the rest at sub-$7500.

Where to Play this Week

We like your chances in this week’s DraftKings PGA $15K Par 5 event this week due to its relatively small field of (max) 3,450 entries.  You can have your hand in the weekly $2 league but you’ll be competing against 23,000 players.  For the extra $3 bucks, better your odds and tackle that $15,000 prize pool.

Don’t forget to try the Masters $1 Million Dollar Event satellite tournament this week for $2 bucks or score a free roll if it’s your first time depositing.

If you’re looking for a better odds this week with a smaller prize pool, FantasyFeud also has plenty of leagues for you.  There you can enter a $2.20 PGA Back Nine 50/50 [$100.00 Guaranteed] league and play against a max of 50 players for a chance at $100 bucks.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Honda Classic

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Honda Classic

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 7/2): We’d be crazy not to put Rory in the top spot—and so would you.   This guy is comes into the week as a $15,700 priced salary cap player and the spread between him and the next player (Dustin Johnson) is about $4,200.  Rory won this event in 2012 and lost in a playoff in 2014.  He ended 2014 as the hottest player on TOUR and kept the momentum alive with a Ryder Cup win, three second place finishes overseas, and win in Dubai.  His European TOUR stats card reads a ridiculous 86.11 GIR percentage and we’ve seen his best average of putt-per-GIR (1.69) since 2008.  McIlroy is the clear favorite for a reason this week and as long as he can live up to that pressure (something he’s been better at over the past few months) he should emerge with a win.  Simply put, he’s our horse pick and we’re spending the $15,700 for him because we can round out our roster with less expensive names.
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 15/1): Although this track has DJ’s number, we’re going to ignore his history here this week.  Sure you can pick a J-Rose here or a Graeme McDowell in this spot if you want to save a few bucks, but we don’t think its a smart play.  With a T4 and Pebble and a P2 last week at the NTO, it looks like DJ is striding towards becoming a dominant force on TOUR and a clear favorite to win at Augusta.  His game is solid, and he was just one lipped-out putt away from a win over Hahn and the rest of the field last week.  If you think he’s too rich to have on your squad with Rory, go with Justin Rose as a solid backup.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 28/1): We simply can’t commit to Sergio until he actually wins and stops choking which is why we’re going with Palmer in this spot.  Ryan bombs the ball off the tee and despite his low accuracy rating, he can still tackle greens (11th in GIR on TOUR).  Palmer also ranks 9th overall in Scrambling and 1st in Scrambling from the Fringe.  Tie that into his rank of third in putting and you have yourself a nice recipe for success on a tough water-ridden Florida golf course. His missed cut at Pebble surprised us but he knows this track well and finished P2 with Rory and Knox at PGA National last year.  Palmer also comes with a great price tag this week and therefore makes a great addition to any roster lead by Rory.
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 35/1): We’re starting to explore some more lower priced players for you to fill up this week’s top heavy roster.  It wouldn’t be any fun (or wise) if we picked the top 7 most expensive player right?  So this is why we’re going with P-Reed here.  Reed is like oil-futures, up one day, down the next…but he’s coming into Florida a week before his title defense at Doral and we’re sure he’s getting pretty pumped up.  Reed is currently third in scrambling and pretty darn good at finding greens in regulation.
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 50/1): Westwood was a little too pricey for the 5-spot on our list this week and not as good of a pick as DJ or Palmer in our opinion, so we wanted to throw you a bone for the $8000 range players.  Although he finished P2 last week, we’re picking him here for a different reason…simply, he knows the course and has the momentum right now.  We know what you’re thinking: Casey caught his first Top 10 last week since 2011, what makes you think he’ll get another one right away?  Simply, guys like this play their best when they’re pushing towards Augusta (Casey hasn’t been there sine 2012).  Also, a top finish here could sneak him up into the OWGR Top 50 to get him on the ballot for next week’s WGC.   There’s undeniably a lot on the line for Casey this week and we think he’ll be riding the high.  It’s also worth noting that he finished T4 here in 2010 and T12 last year. He also finds greens well and currently ranks 6th in putting average, both key stats here at PGA National this week.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Honda Classic

• Brandon Steele (Golficity Odds 66/1):  Steele is a great pick this week at $7,400, especially for a guy who can really add some points to your roster.  He’re a crazy stat for you: his fantasy PPG is 77.2, which is more than Dustin Johnson.  He’s also 8 for 8 in made cuts this year but has never finished better then T33 at this event.  Despite that stat, his course stats line up nice for the track and we’re going to be adding him to our salary cap roster this week.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Honda Classic

• Shawn Stefani (Golficity Odds 75/1): You wanted a Sleeper Pick for dirt cheap and Stefani stacks up well for the task.  For the cheap “garage-sale” price tag of just $6,700, Stefani comes into PGA National ranked 6th in the all-around rank and 13th in GIR.  He’s a newbie to the track so he could very-well be the lightning in a bottle you’re looking for this week.  Shawn is 8 for 9 in cuts made this year and he currently sits at 15th in the FedExCup points rankings.

[/membership]

Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 4/1): P2 ($589,600)
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1): T14 ($110,550)
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 28/1): MC
• J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 33/1): T22 ($58,792)
• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 40/1): T41 ($24,120)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

• Robert Streb (50/1): MC

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

• Charlie Beljan (Golficity Odds 66/1): T69 (13,400)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 13 (91 picks – 7 per event).
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $11,913,531 ($916,425 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 26 out of 91 picks (28.57%).
• Total Top 3s: 13 out of 91 picks (14.29%).
• Runner-Up Finishes: 5 in 13 events (38.46%).
• Total Winners Picked: 2 in 13 events (15.38%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 13 out of 91 players picked (85.7% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Honda Classic with other Premium Members.

Looking for a few more long-shots to round out your fantasy golf team this week?  Check out our Tuesday Sleeper Report for more Honda Classic picks coming off 50/1 or greater odds.

Cover Photo by Visit Florida on Flickr