Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Masters

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Masters 2017

The 2017 Masters Fantasy Preview

It’s finally here: the year’s first golf major, and perhaps the most iconic.  The Masters, from the legendary Augusta National, has played out some of the sport’s most heart-stopping, pant-shredding moments down the years, and we cannot wait to see how the 2017 edition unfolds.

There are so many storylines to enjoy.  Can Dustin Johnson claim a first Green Jacket?  Can Rory McIlroy complete the major ‘grand slam’?  Will Jordan Spieth suffer any flashbacks to his Amen Corner downfall 12 months ago?  Is there still another Masters win in Phil Mickelson or Bubba Watson?  Or will another fine young talent follow in Danny Willett’s footsteps and complete an unlikely victory?

All of these questions, and so many more, will be answered in what looks set to be a stunning week of golf in Augusta, Georgia.

Our fantasy column heads into the tournament in fine form having drafted three of the first ten players home at the Shell Houston Open, with our mid-tier pick Russell Henley getting the better of our also-drafted Rickie Fowler and Jon Rahm, among others, to seal his third PGA TOUR title.

Henley, who if you cast your mind back to 2013-14 you may remember as being one of the hottest properties on tour, picked up a morale-boosting win, a hefty paycheck, and perhaps best of all an invitation to Augusta.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Shell Houston Open

Just when we thought that there is no better feeling than Masters Week, we’re happy to report that we’ll be heading into Augusta after arguably our best week year-to-date!

Instead of following the Spieth, Stenson, Rose herd on DFS, we opted for a tandem of top-tier picks at a lower price to have more fire power, and our Rahm, Fowler, and Henley combo served up some cold hard cash!

Here is the top ‘sample roster’ we offered to our Premium Members last week.  Even our low-tier pick Stewart Cink put up some solid numbers with his T23 finish and 17 birdies.

Many overlooked Henley after he came in with an “inflated” $8,700 price tag.   We snatched him up and as a result, this soon to be 28-year-old, not only earned a spot at Augusta, but he banked us 151.5 fantasy points with his win.  Our Rahm (T10)/Fowler (T3) tandem combined for 237.5 fantasy points and hopefully you took our advice and added all three to your DFS roster.  Together, all three combined for a whopping 389 points.

In case you missed it, here is what we said about Henley last week heading into the event.  All focus would be the last six words.

Henley has to go down as one of the PGA TOUR’s most consistent form horses; at some courses he does absolutely nothing, but at others he’s as good as anybody around.

Look at his last three trips to this track since 2014: 5-4-7.  You will struggle to find anybody who has mastered this Houston layout quite like the 27-year-old.

A two-time PGA TOUR winner, Henley remains reliably chaotic when in contention as his Saturday 75 at the Valspar Championship confirms, but pleasingly he has been in good form of late: he’s made the weekend in eight of his last nine outings, with six of those top-25 finishes.

He appears a tad overpriced this week and that’s because of his course form, but given what has occurred here in the past few years this is an event that we could easily see Henley winning.

Thanks to Russell, we now have five winners picked out of nineteen events this season for a ‘winners-picked percentage’ of 26.30% season-to-date.

The Masters 2017 Field

You know the drill here: only golf’s very finest will take to the tee at Augusta on Thursday.

There’s those at the top of the game (Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matusyama, Jason Day), the next rung (Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler), the old guard (Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott), and the emerging talents (Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Thomas Pieters), and nobody would be hugely surprised if any of these 16 men tried the Green Jacket on for size come Sunday evening.

There’s also a chance to watch some of the legends of the game enjoy another couple of rounds at Augusta: Fred Couples – who has an astonishing record here, Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, and Jose Maria Olazabal, to name a few.

There really is something for everyone during Masters week!

This Week’s Course Preview

Augusta National: is one of the most iconic courses in golf, and home to some of the sport’s most unforgettable moments.

This 7,435 yard, Par 72 stretch was the baby of Rees Jones and originally opened in 1933, but to keep The Masters as competitive and as unpredictable as possible the course has undergone all manner of reboots and overhauls in that time.

In 2002, Tom Fazio was commissioned to give some TLC to this beloved track, and he did just that: lengthening holes, tightening fairways and overseeing a change from the old Bermudagrass greens to their current Bentgrass composition.  It is upon these greens that champions are made and dreams crushed: they typically run at a rapid 13.5 on the stimpmeter.

Built on the site of an old nursery, Augusta remains heavily tree-lined to this day, and each hole is named after a species of tree.

The stroke average is generally over par most years, and we can understand more about the unique contours of Augusta by looking at each hole in detail:

Hole 1: Tea Olive (Par 4, 445 yards) – With a stroke index of 4.36 in 2016, the first hole was the second hardest on the course 12 months ago and it is easy to see why: your tee shot has to be threaded through overhanging trees, while the contoured green features brutal run-off areas.  With nerves likely on the first tee, a par here is a decent way to start.

Hole 2: Pink Dogwood (Par 5, 575 yards) – The first Par 5 of Augusta and the easiest hole on the course, so it is one that players must take advantage of.  The scoring average here 12 months ago was just 4.64, and that’s because there are no demons; just keep your tee shot to the right and enjoy a fantastic line in to the green.

Hole 3: Flowering Peach (Par 4, 350 yards) – This is a tough Par 4 that played at 4.14 in 2016, and that is largely because of the risk and reward approach in place: an iron off the tee can yield a secure par, while a long drive *can* yield results for those taking on the huge fairway bunker.  The front of the green is capped by a huge slope, so pitching in well is key.

Hole 4: Flowering Crab Apple (Par 3, 240 yards) – A beastly Par 3, this was the third hardest hole on the course last year and it’s not hard to see why with that heavily sloping green and long yardage.  This is where many dreams have been shattered early on Championship Sunday.

Hole 5: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards) – Sign for a par here and you have done a pretty good job.  A scoring average of 4.22 this time last year tells its own tale of a hole that requires a pretty hefty draw off the tee for ideal position.

Hole 6: Juniper (Par 3, 180 yards) – With its huge slope downhill to the green, the sixth has become iconic as players have to hit over spectators’ heads off the tee!  A small green and huge downslope requires optimum distance judgment and club selection, especially if the wind is swirling.

Hole 7: Pampas (Par 4, 450 yards) – One of Augusta’s tightest fairways, a long, straight hit will get you in prime position off the tee.  Anything wayward can be catastrophic however: this was the fifth hardest hole last year.  Five greenside bunkers enhance the challenge yet further.

Hole 8: Yellow Jasmine (Par 5, 570 yards) – Another Par 5, another chance to score.  Danny Willett played this hole at just -1 a year ago, but on average it was the third easiest on the course.  Steeply uphill, the tee box was moved back as part of one of the more recent overhauls and a tactically placed bunker can negate the advantage of the bombers.  But, clear the sand and there is the outside chance of finding the dancefloor in two.

Hole 9: Caroline Cherry (Par 4, 460 yards) – One of the easier Par 4 stretches at Augusta, a devastatingly sloping green requires sensible course management; approach shots have been known to roll more than 50 yards away if pitching on the downslope.  One of the few holes at Augusta where long-drivers hold a significant advantage.

Hole 10: Camellia (Par 4, 495 yards) – The start of the back nine and a well-shaped draw here can propel the ball towards the optimum landing area at a rate of knots.  The trees on the right-hand side are where Bubba played his miraculous escape shot to win his first Masters in 2012.

Hole 11: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards) – Here we go: Amen Corner.  And what a way to start with the hardest hole on the course.  The scoring average in 2016 was 4.52, and you sense that most in the field would be happy to take a five and move on.  To get to the top of the fairway hill a huge drive is required, while guarding the left-hand side of the green is a huge water feature that has provided the backdrop to many a collapse over the years.  Willett played the eleventh in level par last year, which will have helped his confidence no end.

Hole 12: Golden Bell (Par 3, 155 yards) – If you get through Magnolia unscathed don’t rest on your laurels just yet.  The twelfth was the ultimate undoing for Spieth 12 months ago with his quadruple bogey, and while the yardage is short the approach from the tee box is tricky.

Hole 13: Azalea (Par 5, 510 yards) – One of the few holes to play under par last year, you can sense the pressure is on the players to really make their mark here after the Magnolia-Golden Bell double header.  A decent drive sets up a mid-range iron over Rae’s Creek, and a birdie here really is a must.

Hole 14: Chinese Fir (Par 4, 440 yards) – Willett played this in -2 last year, and while that does do a disservice to its difficulty the sense is that Chinese Fir can be attacked.  There are no bunkers or major hazards here, just a multi-shelved green that can be overcome with a decent approach.

Hole 15: Firethorn (Par 5, 530 yards) – The last of the Par 5s and another to play under par; helped by the expansive landing area off the tee.  There is a water hazard at the front of the green and the downward sloping nature of the putting surface has seen many a ball roll off and into oblivion.

Hole 16: Redbud (Par 3, 170 yards) – Perhaps the easiest Par 3 at Augusta, but with nerves jangling as the finishing line approaches and water and sand framing the green, it is anything but a gimmie.  Willet’s Sunday birdie here kept his title challenge alive.

Hole 17: Nandina (Par 4, 440 yards) – One of the most wildly undulating greens in world golf plays out some putting disasters on the course’s penultimate hole, and if your approach pitches badly then you can once again be 50 yards or more from immortality.

Hole 18: Holly (Par 4, 465 yards) – The final hole of a torturous 18 and this played some 0.24 over par 12 months ago.  It looks fairly nonthreatening to the naked eye, but carefully placed bunkers and overhanging trees can make life a misery.  But a decent iron in that catches the right slope (this green goes off in crazy directions) can lead to a mid-range putt for birdie. And who knows, perhaps the title of Masters champion 2017!

Weather Forecast for Augusta, Georgia

As we’ve seen many times in the past, the weather can determine exactly how The Masters plays out.

When it is set fair, marks such as -18 set by Jordan Spieth in 2015 (he missed a birdie putt for the Augusta course record) and -16 from Phil Mickelson in 2010 aren’t uncommon.

When things are rather more squally, the winning mark can be as low as -5 (Willett, 2016) and -8 (Bubba, 2014).

The great news is that the early forecast is indicating a week of glorious weather for the players to enjoy.  The last of the rain in the area will move away on Sunday, with Monday-Wednesday expected to feature plenty of warm sunshine.  That will enable the greens-keepers to get the course into A1 condition ahead of Thursday’s start.

Thursday:

Temperatures will range from 57 degrees in the morning to 73 degrees in the afternoon.  Winds will run at around 13 mph and – quite bravely – the weathermen suggest there is a 0% chance of rain!

Friday:

A similar day to Thursday, with temperatures in the range 51 – 77 degrees, winds picking up slightly through the day (10 mph – 17 mph), and again it is suggested that a 0% chance of rain is expected.

Saturday:

A scorching day is expected on Moving Day, with a top temperature of 86 degrees.  The chance of rain has increased to a beastly 4%, and that has perhaps been brought in by a wind which could reach 14 mph by 4pm.

Sunday:

Will the weather have a say in the destination of the Green Jacket?  Possibly. The chance of rain has increased to 20%, with wind speeds set at 14 mph throughout the day.

But, in truth, we couldn’t have hoped for a better four days.

Last Year’s Results from The Masters

It’s called Amen Corner for a reason you know.  Jordan Spieth entered it on Sunday with a hope and a prayer of becoming only the fourth man to win back-to-back Masters’, and he left it knowing that his chances were finished.

He was five shots clear heading into the back nine, and the trophy-engraver was carving the ‘J’ onto the trophy.  But consecutive bogeys at 10 and 11 suggested the wheels were coming off before a complete derailment at the 12th, where he dispatched two balls into Rae’s Creek to finish with a quadruple bogey seven and hand the initiative to Danny Willett, who carded a bogey-free final round of 67 to win his first major and become the first Englishman since Nick Faldo two decades earlier to slide into the Green Jacket.

It had all started so well for Spieth in his title defence.  An opening round of 66 offered up a two shot lead from Danny Lee and Shane Lowry, before a turn in the weather meant conditions toughened and only four players went under par on Friday (DJ, McIlroy, Dan Berger, and Troy Merritt) and five on Saturday (Smylie Kaufman, Bernhard Langer, Jason Day, Lee Westwood, and Louis Oosthuizen.

That being said, the scene was still set for a landmark moment for Spieth, until Amen Corner delivered its most damning of verdicts.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Masters this Week

There’s no lack of DFS action this week and this time around we’re highlighting two of our favorite places to play fantasy golf, those being DraftKings, the 12,000 lb gorilla in the room, and DRAFT, the scrappy/cool newcomer.

DRAFT App

That’s right, there’s a new DFS game in town and it’s called DRAFT.  Visit PlayDRAFT.com for more details on how their weekly golf contests work.

Best of all, our colleagues over at The Golf Podcast have even worked in a coupon code for us.  First-time players can use coupon code ‘golfpodcast‘ at checkout for a 100% deposit bonus.  Download the app here on iTunes and Android.

DraftKings

The year’s first major brings with it a stack of daily fantasy contests, and DraftKings have done their best to satisfy the needs of all their players with an eclectic range of tournaments.

We’ve highlighted two of the key contests below, but we should also mention the FREE $100,000 contest.  One entry, no fee, a top prize of $1,000 and the top 21,000 entries earning a cash prize!

• PGA $3.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: If you’ve been saving your bankroll especially for The Masters, here’s where to cash your chips.  The top prize here is a million big ones, with the top 30,625 of 122,000 entries earning a handsome consolation prize of $50.

• PGA $600K Birdie: If you’re on a slightly tighter budget, then here is your key contest this week.  A $3 entry could win the top prize of $50k, while those finishing in the top 39,000 of the 235,000 entries will double their money at the very least.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Masters

The beauty of The Masters is that it is played at the same venue year in, year out, and the upshot of that for daily fantasy gamers is that we have a huge raft of stats and trends to work with.

So for example, in the last 20 years we know that only four players have missed the cut the week before they triumphed at Augusta.  That suggests an 80% chance that the likes of Spieth, Stenson, Scott, and Patrick Reed won’t get the job done this week.

Of course, these patterns are there to be broken, but some of the evidence is so compelling that it would be foolish not to consider these points prior to completing your draft.

All of the below stats were correct at the point the champions in question won their Masters title:

2016: Danny Willett

• How many times in Masters: 1
• Masters finish the year before: T38
• Best Masters finish: T38
• Form heading in: 28-23-3-45
• Past three major appearances: 54-6-MC (PGA ’15, The Open ’15, US Open ’15)

2015: Jordan Spieth

• How many times in Masters: 1
• Masters finish the year before: 2
• Best Masters finish: 2
• Form heading in: 2-2-1-17
• Past three major appearances: MC-36-17 (PGA ’14, Open ’14, US Open ’14)

2014: Bubba Watson

• How many times in Masters: 5
• Masters finish the year before: 50
• Best Masters finish: 1
• Form heading in: WD-9-2-1
• Past three major appearances: MC-32-32 (PGA ’13, Open ’13, US Open ’13)

2013: Adam Scott

• How many times in Masters: 11
• Masters finish the year before: 50
• Best Masters finish: 2
• Form heading in: 33-3-30-10
• Past three major appearances: 11-2-15 (PGA ’12, Open ’12, US Open ’12)

There are a few anomalies to consider, but really the clues are here in neon technicolor.  Each of the past four winners of The Masters were in good form heading into their triumphant appearance; which might sound obvious, but each of this quartet had recorded a top-five finish in their four tournaments prior to Augusta.

Bubba had won (Northern Trust Open) and finished second (WGC Cadillac), while Spieth has been a winner (Valspar Championship), lost in a play-off (Houston Open) and recorded another podium place at the Texas Open.  Form and confidence heading to Augusta is a necessity.

You’ll note that each had played reasonably well in The Masters the year before; a high finish isn’t essential, but the stats would suggest at least making the weekend is: each of the last ten Masters champions had made the cut the year before they slipped into the Green Jacket.

Three of the last four Masters champs had recorded a top-20 in their prior three major appearances as well, and the anomaly – Bubba – can perhaps be forgiven seeing as though he is a multiple-time Augusta victor.

And finally, each of the last ten Masters winners had all played Augusta at least once prior to their triumph. orry, Mr Rahm!

Other Masters stats that are of interest:

• Each of the last ten winners was aged 40 or under at the time of their win.
• Eight of the last ten were ranked in the world’s top 30 at the time.
• Nine of the last ten winners were non-European; 5x American, 2x South African, 1x Argentinean, 1x Australian.
• No world number one (at the time) has won The Masters in the past decade. Can Dustin Johnson break that cycle in 2017?

As for what kind of players we should be looking for this week, driving distance has typically been more important than accuracy: Spieth and Willett ranked just 52nd and 32nd for Driving Accuracy in their winning efforts.

A natural accomplice of the above is that a decent week of Scrambling is essential to rescue position, while clearly putting well on these fast and cruelly undulating greens is essential.

Finally, here’s how the last ten champions combined have played the course:

• Par 3s: -4
• Par 4s: -12
• Par 5s: -90

Little else needs to be said about that!

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Masters

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

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