Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2013 Northern Trust Open

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 Northern Trust Open Feb 14 – 17, 2013

The Course:  Riviera Country Club measures 7,349 yards and plays as a par 71 with course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139 on Kikuyu grass. Course designer George Thomas contemplated over a dozen possible layouts before deciding on one that remains among the best at keeping players focused on every single shot. The par-3 sixth hole is famous for its bunker in the middle of the green, and No. 10 is said to be the best drivable par-4 in the game.  The course record is 61 which is held by Ted Tryba, who notched this score after losing the (formally known as) Nissan Open here to Ernie Els in the final round in 1999.

Riviera Country Club by Dan Perry

The Weather in Pacific Palisades, CA (from Weather.com):

• Round 1:  Thursday (Feb 14) 67 degrees, 0% chance of rain, sunny.
• Round 2:  Friday (Feb 15) 73 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy/wind.
• Round 3:  Saturday (Feb 16) 71 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4:  Sunday (Feb 17) 68 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2012 Results:  The exciting finish here in 2012 ended in a playoff between Phil Mickelson, Keegan Bradley, and Bill Haas with Haas draining a 45-foot birdie putt on the second playoff hole.  Prior to this, Haas went in with the lead after 18 and waited on the practice range when a sudden uproar came from the 18^th green as Mickelson sunk a 25-foot birdie to grab a share of the lead with Bradley who also dropped a 12-footer on 18.  After pars all around in a replay of the 18th, Haas ended it with a smart play on playoff hole No. 2.  After driving the ball into the thick rough, Haas went on to chip up away from the hole to eliminate a dangerous bunker. Meanwhile, neither Mickelson nor Bradley could hold the green with their second shots and Haas went on to win his first tournament of 2012 after winning the FedEx Cup the prior year.

Notes:  Phil Mickelson won this tournament back-to-back in 2008 and 2009.   Earlier this year Mickelson struggled at Torrey Pines but bounced back the next week to win at Scottsdale.   Phil struggled again last week at Pebble Beach, so the hot and cold lefty’s game is a bit unpredictable.  It pains us not to pick returning champ Bill Haas this week, but something about Dustin Johnson is telling us he may redeem himself at Riviera.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win:

• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 14/1): Other than Brandt Snedeker, Charl Schwartzel may be the hottest golfer on TOUR.  In his last 6 starts, he hasn’t placed worst then 5^th and in his last 4 starts he’s finished 2^nd – win –win-2^nd.     Although this is his first appearance at Riviera Country Club, Charl has been a winner lately and we like his odds.
• Sergio Garcia (Golficity Odds 18/1): Although he suffered a little shoulder discomfort 2 weeks ago, Sergio grabbed a win overseas along with three top-10s.   Garcia has five top-25s at Riviera and finished T4 there in 2012.
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 20/1): Phil is a two time winner at Riviera (2008 and 2009).  He had a phenomenal showing at TPC Scottsdale two weeks ago but fell apart again Pebble Beach.  We’ve seen the lefty bounce back before and this course plays to his strengths.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 20/1):  No question Walker is one of the hottest non-winners on TOUR so far in 2013.  Jimmy has two top-4s in the last three starts and has proven success at Riviera.  He has ties for 4^th here in both 2011 and 2012 and he ranks 6^th in adjusted scoring and 5^th in all-around.
• Dustin Johnson: (Golficity Odds 25/1): We went out on a limb here by picking DJ over defending champ Bill Haas and we’re hoping he proves us right.  DJ has been disappointing since his early dominating win at Kapalua.  However, what has us high on DJ this week is his three top-10s at Riviera in five starts with a T4 last year.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1):  The Las Vegas native notched a solo 4^th at the Phoenix Open which gave him his 5^th top-10 in his last 7 PGA TOUR starts.  He tied for 4^th at Riviera in 2011 and finished T17 last year.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 50/1):  The Australian wonder finished 2012 with four top 15s, including a win at the Australian Masters. With an unofficial victory at Riviera in 2005, he has some proven success here with three top 20s including T17 in 2012.  Scott ranks 11th in ball-striking on this course as well.

Last Week’s Fantasy Prediction Results (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am):

• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds: 7/1):  T60(-1)
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds: 12/1):    Winner (-19)
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds: 15/1):    MC
• Padraig Harrington (Golficity Odds: 20/1):  MC
• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds: 30/1):   T46 (-3)

Last Week’s Fantasy Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds: 50/1):  T16 (-9)
• David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds: 75/1): MC

Golficity’s 2013 “Top 5 Picks” Winners: 2 for 3 (*3 Tournaments Predicted)