Fantasy Golf Predictions – The 2013 John Deere Classic

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 John Deere Classic July 11th – 14th, 2013

Preview:   Remember last year when Zach Johnson hit what was arguably one of the best fairway bunker shots ever to win a tournament?   Well in case you forgot, he stroked a 193-yard 6-iron approach from the left fairway bunker on the 18th and ran it less than a foot from the cup for an easy birdie, which knocked off Troy Matteson, whose approach landed 43 feet from the pin.

The Course:  TPC Deere Run measures 7,268 yards and plays as a par 71. This course was built in 1999 on the site of an old tribal village and Arabian horse farm. D.A. Weibring’s design makes skilled use of rolling woodlands alongside the Rock River. With dramatic elevation changes on several holes, this course could present a dangerous challenge to the players in the field this week. The downhill 14th measures 358 yards and can be drivable under the right conditions. TPC Deere Run earned a place in the history books three years ago when Paul Goydos carded just the fourth 59 ever recorded on the PGA TOUR – so low scores are possible here. Eventual winner Steve Stricker shot 60 that day when his approach shot narrowly missed going in on the 18th hole.   Watch out for some low numbers and big names on top of the leaderboard this week.

Photo by TPC.com

The Weather at The John Deere Classic in Silvis, IL (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (July 11) 82 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 2: Friday (July 12) 81 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (July 13) 81 degrees, 20% chance of rain, am clouds/ pm sun.
• Round 4: Sunday  (July 14) 84 degrees, 20% chance of rain, mostly cloudy.

2012 Results:  Zach Johnson finally won his home-area event when he forced a playoff with birdies on three of his last six holes before beating Troy Matteson on the second extra hole.  Johnson overcame a four-shot deficit with a 7-under-par 64, moving in front for a short while until Matteson’s eagle at No. 17 set up the playoff match. Both players took double-bogey 6s after hitting into the water on the first playoff hole, before Johnson’s outstanding 6-iron short from 193 yards out set him up for the winning birdie. Stricker, seeking to become just the fifth man to win four consecutive years at the same tournament, was in the running until dropping back with bogeys at Nos. 15-16.

Notes: Zach Johnson also arrives with a streak of 16 consecutive rounds in the 60s at Deere Run. Of his 38 career rounds on this course, he’s failed to break 70 just five times — a problem we’d all love to have.  Steve Stricker will be seeking a fourth John Deere crown in a five-year span. His three wins from 2009-11 marks the last time anyone has won a PGA TOUR event in three consecutive years. Adding to the excitement, a victory at Deere Run also brings a British Open berth, if the winner hasn’t already qualified for the year’s third major already.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2013 John Deere Classic:

• Steve Stricker (Golficity Odds 8/1): The three-time champion has averaged 65.75 strokes over his most recent 16 rounds at TPC Deere Run. Perhaps it’s time for TPC Deere Run to hand over the keys, as Stricker is going for 4 titles here in the last 5 years, coming in under par in his last 15 rounds. He’s also 7-for-7 this season in cuts made with four top 10s under his belt.
• Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 12/1): The defending champion hasn’t made much noise since his solo third at Colonial, but he’s finished inside the top three at TPC Deere Run in three of his last four trips. Johnson came in under par in his last 16 rounds on the host course, with an actual scoring average of 66.94.  Even with his recent struggles we like his chances for a repeat this year.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 22/1):  Speith struggled through a bad finish last week with 14 straight missed birdie opportunities in his final-round 73 at Greenbrier where he settled for a share of 23rd place.  However, Greenbrier was still his seventh top 25 of the season, with five being top 10s. He’s been making headlines and striking the ball well, so keep an eye out for the youngster this week on a scorable Deere Run.
•  Keegan Bradley (Golficity Odds 29/1): This is Keegan’s first appearance at TPC Deere Run, so we didn’t take him high. He recently took two weeks off after sharing 18th place at the Travelers Championship. Keegan has six top 10s and another three top 25s this year and his game can make him a serious threat on a course like this.
•  Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 35/1):  It’s a mixed bag with this guy – Moore had three top 15s and three missed cuts over the past two months. His last tournament played was the Travelers Championship where he tied for seventh. He’s 4-for-4 at TPC Deere Run with a T8 last year and an active streak of seven sub-70 scores which is why we have him in our top 5 this week.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Scott Stallings (Golficity Odds 50/1): Stallings rebounded after missing the cut at the AT&T National with a T23 at Greenbrier where he ranked eighth in strokes gained-putting. He tied for 22nd at the 2011 John Deere Classic and we like him as a long shot…but don’t bet the ranch on him.
• Louis Oosthuizen (Golficity Odds 50/1):  ‘Oos’ is coming into this event having finished T17 at Greenbrier to erase any residual doubt about his health that has bothered him all season. He ranked T6 in greens hit and first in proximity to the hole at The Old White TPC last week.  He could play well here, but the chances of him holding the trophy at the end are slim.  Pick him as your dark horse if you really want to shoot for the big prize.

Last Week’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (2013 Greenbrier Classic)

Top 5 Picks to Win:

• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 5/2): MC
• Webb Simpson (Golficity Odds 9/1): T41
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 14/1):  T9
• Billy Horschel (Golficity Odds 20/1): T30
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 27/1): T30

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Graham DeLaet (Golficity Odds 33/1):  T30
•  Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 37/1): T23

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