Fantasy Golf Predictions – The 2013 Shell Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 Shell Houston Open March 28th – 31st

The Course:  Redstone Golf Club (Tournament Course) measures 7,457 yards and plays as a par 72. The 2005 Rees Jones design was built over the site of an earlier country club and has been praised for its ability to replicate Augusta National’s setup.  Hence, in the days leading to the Masters many players slot this track into their schedule to tune up for Augusta. With pristine, finely groomed fairways, well-engineered greens, and challenging bunkers everywhere, you can bet that the Redstone should make for difficult scoring, even if the weather prevails. The 484-yard 18th, with water running along the entire left side, ranks among the PGA TOUR’s toughest closing holes.

Tournament Course, Hole #1. Photo by Redstone Golf Club

The Weather in Humble, TX (from Weather.com):

• Round 1: Thursday (Mar 28) 74 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly cloudy.
• Round 2: Friday (Mar 29) 72 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (Mar 30) 78 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated t-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday  (Mar 31) 81 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated t-storms.

2012 Results: Hunter Mahan became the first two-time winner on the PGA TOUR last year with this victory at Redstone where he posted a 1-under-par 71 to beat out Louis Oosthuizen by one stroke. Oosthuizen went on to make a name for himself a couple of weeks later in the dramatic playoff finish at Augusta with Bubba Watson.  At Redstone last year, Louis took a two-shot advantage into the final round, but two double bogeys on the front nine took him out of the lead. Mahan birdied No. 9 to capture the lead and then stood alone after Carl Pettersson choked with a bogey on No. 10.

Notes:  Making his final start before the Masters for a much needed “tune-up”, Rory McIlroy (now World No. 2) hopes to build upon his finish two weeks ago at Doral where a final-round 65 finished him in a tie for eighth. Oosthuizen, who followed Houston with a playoff loss at Augusta National, has not yet played to the level of game we all saw late last year.  To date he’s missed two of three cuts on the PGA TOUR this year and tied for 33rd at Trump Doral. This is the final week for players not already in the Masters field to qualify through the top 50 in the world ranking. No. 57 Charles Howell III and No. 58 Henrik Stenson have longshot chances.  We picked Charles Howell III as a Sleeper Pick this week due to his ability to make the list – he finished T19 there last year and before that hasn’t been invited back since 2008, when he missed the cut.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win:

• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 8/1): The defending champ preceded his victory at Redstone with four top 11s in six starts here. He’s coming off his seventh straight top 25 this year which includes a T21 at Bay Hill where he ranked ninth in GIR and 16th in strokes gained-putting. We like his level of play so far in 2013 with 2 top-10s including a 2^nd place finish and 8 of 8 cuts made.
• Keegan Bradley (Golficity Odds 10/1): Bradley’s T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was his best finish since last year’s PGA Championship where he also finished T3.  It was also his third top five in nine starts this season. This is Keegan’s second appearance at Redstone, where he shared fourth place last year.
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 15/1): In his return from an injured rib muscle, Snedeker carded a pair of 76s at Bay Hill to miss the cut by five strokes and gave away eight strokes on the 17th and 18th holes alone. Although the injury has bothered him as of late, Brandt still leads the TOUR in greens hit and the all-around and is still arguably the hottest player on TOUR this year.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 18/1):  Walker is still making a name for himself on TOUR. His latest of three top 10s occurred at Bay Hill where he tied for eighth although closing out with a 74. Jimmy led the field last week in distance off the tee and ranked 19th in strokes gained-putting.  To date Walker has one 3^rd place finish and has made 8 of 8 cuts in 2013.
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 22/1): The 2011 winner has an active streak of 10 consecutive rounds under par on this track. Mickelson co-led after one round last year but finished in T4. Phil currently ranks 43rd on TOUR in strokes gained-putting and 21st in adjusted scoring.  Mickelson already has one win on TOUR this year and almost picked up another at Doral before Tiger took over on day 4.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 50/1): Howell is currently eighth in FedExCup points and finished T19 in his last appearance at Redstone in 2011, but he’s also gone four straight starts in full-field stroke-play events without cracking the top 25.  Charles placed T45 at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard and is fighting for an invitation to Augusta.
• Frederick Jacobson (Golficity Odds 70/1):  Now known as “Freddy Jac”, this Sweden veteran has 3 top-10s in 2013 including one 3^rd place finish in 6 events played.  Jacobson missed only 2 cuts out of 17 events on TOUR last year and has missed 1 in 6 so far in 2013.

Last Week’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (The Arnold Palmer Invitational)

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win:

• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 5/2):  WINNER
• Phil Mickelson(Golficity Odds 12/1): MC
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 19/1): MC
• Sergio Garcia (Golficity Odds 24/1):  WD
• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 33/1)): T21

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Peter Hanson (Golficity Odds 66/1):  DNP
• Boo Weekley (75/1): T69

2013 “Top 5 Picks/Sleepers” Winners: 3 for 9

2013 “Top 5 Picks/Sleepers” Runner Ups: 3 for 9

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