Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2015 Valspar Championship

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2015 Valspar Championship at Copperhead

Event Preview

The PGA TOUR stays in sunny Florida this week for the Valspar Championship as the season kicks into full gear leading up to the Masters.  A top heavy field will head to Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club as five of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings compete in an event that was just back in 2000.

The top two players from the rankings, No. 3 Henrik Stenson and No. 4 Adam Scott, will make their second start of the New Year in the United States after making debuts at the WGC-Cadillac Championship last week and will be joined by No. 6 Jim Furyk, No. 9 Justin Rose and No. 10 Jordan Spieth.  Besides that, there are just three other golfers (Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, and Jamie Donaldson) who will be among the field from the top-25 in the OWGR.

The par-71, 7,340-yard course has had twelve different victors over its fourteen years hosting this event with K.J. Choi (2002, 2006) and Retief Goosen (2003, 2009) being the only multiple winners.  Taking home the trophy has become increasingly more difficult over the past few seasons with the winners scores going from 15-under back in 2011 when Gary Woodland won, and decreasing in each successive season before Aussie John Senden walked away the winner with a score of just seven-under last year.  Senden just beat out both Kevin Na (-6) and Scott Langley (-5) behind a solid mark of 64 on Friday and an impressive two birdies in the “Snake Pit,” one of the tours toughest three-hole finishing stretches, in the final round.

The past champions here have typically been from outside of the U.S. with eight international winners representing six different countries who have taken home the hardware since the tourneys inception.

Let’s scour over the field and pick out a few fantasy sleepers poised to put up some big numbers this week.

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

In an effort to continually provide our Premium Members with the best fantasy content anywhere on the web, this week we’ve added a bonus “Sleeper Report” to help you identify the undervalued, long-shots that can help you score some bonus fantasy points this weekend.  Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Boo Weekley – 75/1: Weekley is having a great start to the year, having already nearly matched his winnings from last year from three top-10’s in his first eight events—this after getting just one such finish last year in 24 tourneys.  The three-time PGA TOUR winner is coming off a solid tie for sixth at the Puerto Rico Open when he shot 69-68 on the weekend.  He hasn’t performed particularly well here at the Valspar recently, with a missed cut in 2012 and an 84th-place finish last year, but he showed he can tame Innisbrook with a runner-up performance in 2013 where he shot an amazing 63 on Sunday and nearly overtook eventual winner Kevin Streelman.  His amazing ability to dominate the courses with strokes gained tee-to-green (1.22, 10th on tour), and finesse with a 64.3% success-rate scrambling (30th on tour), will give him every opportunity to string together some nice holes and low scores.
• Kevin Streelman – 80/1: Streelman has been a horse on this course and has finished 38th, 1st, and 10th respectively over the past three seasons.  He shot a combined 17-under par in that time and was 10-under in both 2012 and 2013, as he carded a 69 or better in seven of eight rounds.  Streelman is no world-beater, but he has continued his solid career this season with seven made cuts in ten events and had a runner-up showing at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open with a phenomenal score of 18-under.  His solid driving accuracy (64.4%, 54th on tour) has led to 71% of greens hit in regulation (23rd on tour) and for a sleeper he should play very well in Palm Harbor this week.
• Robert Garrigus – 100/1: Garrigus has gone back-and-forth between great showings and dismal ones at this tournament but he has fourth and a second place finish to his name here over the last three seasons.  He was in the driver’s seat in last year’s installment with a score of eight-under heading into Sunday, but posted a meager 75 on the final day and dropped out of contention.  Garrigus gained 1.20 strokes putting over the week and was an impressive 11-under on the par-5’s, but he really failed to do much on the par-4’s with seven dropped shots.  He’ll need to rely on his driving to be spot on this week as he’s one of the longest players in the field off the tee (301.2 yards per, 21st on tour), while still remaining in the top-100 in accuracy (60.2%, 98th on tour).  Look for the veteran to put two consecutive missed cuts behind him and show that he still has something left in the tank at a course that he feels comfortable playing on.
• Scott Langley – 125/1: Langley comes into this week with four straight made cuts and will now travel to a course that he has done very well at in recent years.  In 2013, he managed to come in 30th with an accurate driver (69%) and followed that up with a third-place finish in 2014.  He has combined some solid power and finesse this year that should aid him on the par-4’s in the upcoming week, as he is making 60.4% of his sand save opportunities (33rd on tour) and has been impressive from the 175-200 yard range–a very common second shot on long par-4’s, with a proximity to the hole of 27’ 7” (7th on tour).  Langley may not yet have the skills to win many tournaments, but he should show us some great talent over the weekend at Innisbrook and at 125/1 odds, he makes for an excellent sleeper selection.
• Justin Leonard – 300/1: Leonard has really lost his standing in the game and after notching twelve career victories between 1996 and 2008, has dropped to 387th in the OWGR.  But, he’s shot par or better in 15 of his past 16 rounds at this event and highlighted that run with a solid showing of fourth in 2013 making it was his sole top-10 on the year behind a 79% driving accuracy.  Justin hasn’t don’t anything outstanding so far this year, making the cut in just 4-of-8 events and failing to crack the top-25 in any of them, but his driving accuracy (67.9%, 21st on tour) remains among the best in the game and that stat seems to be one of the more important stats to keep an eye on for the Valspar.  Leonard is definitely a long shot, but the former superstar still has some magic left in his bag and this week will be his chance to experience what a top-15 finish feels like again.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for this week’s Valspar Championship Here.

Cover photo by Steve Hersh on Flickr