Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 TOUR Championship

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 TOUR Championship

The 2016 TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR season has slowly trimmed away the fat of some great golfers to get to the true elite of the 2016 campaign as the Top 30 from the FedExCup standings hit up East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia for their version of the Super Bowl.  While there are plenty of top-notch golfers out there not attending due to a limited PGA TOUR schedule this year, the best of the best are setting their sites at the $10 million prize and will only get there if they are able to top the standings come Sunday evening.  This course has been the host of this prestigious event since 2004 and features a long 7,154 yards of par-70 golf, which will be a test even for this group of players.  The venue settles just outside of Atlanta after being first established in 1904 and was the preferred course of nine-time TOUR winner Bobby Jones.

The eventual winner of the FedExCup tends to go to the man who sees his name at the top of the leaderboard following four days in East Lake.  This has been the case in each of the past six seasons, as the points amassed through positive play during these playoffs earns golfers a ton of points, and usually one of the top golfers going in ends up taking home the trophy in the Tour Championship.  The last player to come away as the overall champion without conquering East Lake was Tiger Woods in 2009, but he still did very well that week, with a runner-up showing behind Phil Mickelson.  With the points being reset at the end of the BMW Championship, each player has a mathematical chance of winning the overall prize, but the odds of someone like No. 30 Charl Schwartzl doing so are astronomical, as they not only need to win against such a difficult field, but they would also need the likes of Dustin Johnson and the rest of the Top 5 to have a poor tournament.  Since the inception of the FedExCup playoffs in 2007, seven of the nine winners in the Tour Championship have called the United States home, and most of them saw a healthy margin of strokes between them and the nearest competitor.  Both Bill Haas (2012) and Camilo Villegas (2008) needed extra holes, while Jim Furyk (2010) came away with a one stroke win, and the other six victors averaged a margin of four shots better than the next best score.

Last year, Jordan Spieth rounded out his fantastic season with a four shot trumping of the field to capture the illustrious prize, fending off a trio of Danny Lee, Justin Rose, and Henrik Stenson in the runner-up spot.  A win here again would not guarantee Spieth a spot next to Woods as the only two players to win the FedExCup twice, but he does have a good chance for that to happen, as he’s currently sitting in seventh.  Joining him in a similar situation is No. 6 Rory McIlroy, who won his third FedExCup event at the Deutsche Bank Championship a few weeks ago.  The players who do control their own destiny are an impressive group, with No. 1 Dustin Johnson leading the pack followed by Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Jason Day, and Paul Casey.  After you get past that group, the math behind winning becomes extensive, as Johnson would need to basically finish in last place, on top of a plethora of other scenarios, for the likes of Schwartzl to be crowned.  Schwartzl was one of four players to come from outside of the Top 30 at the BMW Championship to compete here.  The other three are No. 21 Roberto Castro, No. 26 Daniel Berger, and No. 28 J.B. Holmes.

With such a diminished field, we are going to highlight three players from the bottom half of the odds who have a solid chance at taking on golf’s darlings and bringing home a big win.  Given the strength of this week’s small field it’s hard to consider any of the names below “sleepers,” but they will earn that title this week thanks to others, such as Johnson, Spieth, Day, and McIlroy, chomping at the bit to proclaim themselves champions of the golf world.

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The 2016 TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The 2016 TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Russell Knox – Vegas Odds 40/1 – Knox has improved each year on the PGA TOUR, and 2016 put him into the Top 20 of the OWGR, as he managed to get his first two victories and another two runner-ups.  His first win came against a similar field at the WGC-HSBC Champions back in November, when he shot four rounds of 68 or better and outlasted the likes Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Jordan Spieth, who finished in the Top 10.  His pinpoint accuracy is no joke, and he has hit better than 70% of GIR at four of his last five tournaments, and ranks sixth overall (70.33%) in the category over the course of the season.  He is also one of the most accurate drivers (68.88%, 8^th on TOUR) out there and is better than most with his scrambling (62.33%, 20^th on TOUR), which will make up for his below-average putting game.  This will be the 31-year-old’s first visit to East Lake, but his consistency this year, along with a recent stretch of nice outings made suggests he will outperform his odds and be in contention for a win late into this event.

Brandt Snedeker – Vegas Odds 40/1 – Snedeker gets the nod here over a few of the other players out there who were in a similar spot thanks to experience.  Over his career, Snedeker has accumulated eight victories, including one here in 2012 which earned him the FedExCup overall win and a $10 million check.  That year he took it to the field by gaining 1.606 strokes putting and has since done well with visits to the Tour Championship in both 2013 and 2015.  He looks to be in line for a better finish than those years, though, coming into the week in 11^th after making an impressive 20-of-22 cuts (91%) and getting into the Top 10 13 times.  Two of those Top 10’s have come over his past six events, and he showed some poise in last week’s playoff tourney with a 13^th thanks to scoring eight shots under par over the weekend.  If he is going to earn his second victory in Atlanta, he will need to continue with his amazing play around the green, where he has gained 0.293 strokes on the field (21^st on TOUR).  His play out of the sand (55.04% sand save, 37^th on TOUR) and ability to scramble (62.31%, 21^st on TOUR), along with a wealth of experience in situations such as this one will keep him fighting at the top until the end.

Kevin Na – Vegas Odds 60/1 – It has not been long since Na became a father, and we believe that the great news won’t stop there as he heads to East Lake.  The man I believe will be selected to the Ryder Cup team following the conclusion of this event has never been a great closer when it comes down to the most important moments in his career, but he is one of the more consistent golfers out there and it is just a matter of time before he gets to put his name on a trophy of significance.  That could become the reality once Sunday rolls around, as the recently-turned 33-year-old comes off a 2016 campaign in which he piled up eight Top 10’s over 25 tournaments and finished in the Top 3 four times.  He did well in the big events as well, making the cut at each of the four majors, and placing in the Top 22 at three of them.  It amazes me he has not made it back into the winner’s circle since 2011, as he was able to gain 0.890 total strokes on the field this year (21^st on TOUR) while excelling at his approach to the green (0.833 strokes gained, 3^rd on TOUR).  Na hits fairways with regularity (65.59%, 25^th on TOUR) and ranks in the Top 50 in proximity from the hole from 50-125 (39^th), 125-150 (1^st), 150-175 (13^th), and 175-200 (42^nd) yards out.  Watch for Na to get this done for his new daughter while forcing Ryder Cup Captain David Love III to bring him along for the competition against a strong European team.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 TOUR Championship here.

Cover photo via Instagram.