Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2025 American Express

2025 American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

Heading into the 72nd hole at the Sony Open, Nick Taylor was available at a staggering 400/1 with the sportsbooks in-running.

And then a sequence of remarkable events unfolded. The Canadian chipped in from the back of the green to eagle the final hole, setting the clubhouse lead of -16.

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Both Stephan Jaeger and JJ Spaun were still the hot contenders, but then they made bogeys down the final straight and failed to birdie the easy eighteenth hole.

Taylor still had to see off Nicolas Echavarria in a playoff, but his fine record in such shootouts – he was 2-0, while the Colombian was making his ‘debut’ – was likely to be a factor.

And it was. Taylor birdied the replayed 18th hole twice; the second of which was enough to land him a fifth PGA TOUR title.

It’s back to the mainland we go for The American Express, which kicks off the West Coast Swing this week. Whether the span of events will be impacted by the tragic wildfires in California remains to be seen, but at the time of writing it’s good to go in La Quinta.

The American Express takes place across three host venues, unusually, with Pete Dye’s Stadium Course, Jack Nicklaus’ Tournament layout, and La Quinta Country Club welcoming the players on rotation across the opening 54 holes, before there’s a cut and the final round plays out at the Stadium Course.

There’s nothing particularly unique or eye-catching about the venues. Each is a short Par 72 with plenty of birdie opportunities, with the Nicklaus Course and La Quinta in particular some of the easiest venues you’ll see on the PGA TOUR.

The Stadium Course is somewhat more difficult, with plenty of sand and water to catch out the players, but even so this isn’t Pete Dye at his devilish best.

Remember, the tournament – as it has done for decades – utilizes a pro-am format, with amateurs, celebrities, and even politicians teeing it up alongside the professionals across the opening 54 holes.

It’s a unique setup that has yielded plenty of shock results over the years, from Nick Dunlap winning as an amateur here 12 months ago, to big odds champions like Hudson Swafford (250/1) and Andrew Landry (500/1) outperforming expectations handsomely in recent years.

What can we expect in 2024? Well, hopefully one or more of this quintet will get themselves into contention to boost our American Express sleeper shortlist.

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Nick Dunlap – 50/1 – What do Jon Rahm, Hudson Swafford, and Bill Haas have in common? They’ve all won The American Express twice in the past 15 years.

Whether Nick Dunlap joins that group this week remains to be seen, but it’s interesting to see the frequency with which repeat winners have taken care of business.

We know that the course suits a player who won as an amateur here 12 months ago, and the fact he was T10 at the Sony Open last time out – making gains on the field on approach and with his putting.

Patrick Fishburn – 50/1 – It was another revelatory week for Patrick Fishburn, who showed his versatility to thrive at a short, tight track… not typically conditions in which bombers produce their best work.

He was towards the summit of the leaderboard for much of the week at Waialae, eventually fading somewhat to T6. That means his formline now reads 6-8-12 heading into this week, which is as strong as you’re likely to see.

Fishburn will enjoy the extra room off the tee at this trio of layouts, where his extra length and birdie-making prowess should be enough to give him an excellent chance of contending once more.

Eric Cole – 50/1 – One shot adrift of the leader after 54 holes at the Sony Open, Eric Cole produced strong work despite Waialae not being optimal for his game.

Cole is not particularly good off the tee – an unusual thing to say about a former PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year, but the stats bear that out. However, he is outstanding at everything thereafter… his approach play was very much back on point at the Sony.

He will enjoy the wider fairways in California, and if he hits his irons and wedges as well as he did in Hawaii – and continues the hot hand with the flatstick that saw him gain +1.30 strokes on the field on the greens, Cole can go close once again.

Denny McCarthy – 60/1 – You could back Denny McCarthy at 60/1 for the Sony Open last week. He was at the top of the leaderboard after 36 holes there… and yet finds himself priced at 60/1 this week, too.

That’s because the head of the field is stronger, of course, but if Rahm is right in his assertion that The American Express is a putting contest (not something we wholeheartedly agree with, it should be said), then wouldn’t you want on board a guy who has gained strokes on the field with the flatstick in 20 of his last 25 starts?

Interestingly, McCarthy gained +1.18 strokes on the field on approach at the Sony. That’s his best performance since the Texas Open in April, where he bested a field containing Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama by at least nine shots, before alas losing a playoff to Akshay Bhatia.

Routinely an excellent putter – he ranked 31st on TOUR in 2024, Lower ranked third in the field at the Sony Open on Sunday for approach gains made.

Andrew Novak – 100/1 – Stellar approach play is par for the course with Andrew Novak, who is often just a strong putting week away from contending.

They don’t come along all that often, but when they do… well, Novak racked up five top-10s on the PGA TOUR in 2024, including solo second at the Bermuda Championship in November.

Will the flatstick behave itself this week? We can only hope so, but if it does then 100/1 about a Novak victory would be outstanding value.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The American Express here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024-2025)

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