Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2025 Sony Open

2025 Sony Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

The Sentry is proving to be a record-breaking way to start the new PGA TOUR season.

Just three years after Cameron Smith fired -34 to win the event and break PGA TOUR scoring records, Hideki Matsuyama would go one better at Kapalua.

The Japanese star crushed his way to a final tally of -35, recording the lowest 72-hole score in PGA TOUR history. He also made birdie-or-better on 35 holes, another new landmark on the TOUR.

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Ranking first in the field for SG: Tee-to-Green and third for SG: Putting, Matsuyama was -frankly – unstoppable.

It was the eleventh PGA TOUR title of an increasingly impressive career, and also saw the 32-year-old join an exclusive club of players that have won both legs of the Hawaiian Swing: The Sentry and the Sony Open.

At the time of writing, 35 of the 59 who took to the tee at Kapalua last week are heading on to Waialae, home of the Sony Open, and there’s a strong chance that one of them will lift the trophy. 

Eight of the last eleven Sony Open champions had played at The Sentry the week before, which suggests that while the host courses are different in nature, familiarity with the trade winds and grainy Bermuda greens is still worth plenty.

Waialae is far shorter (7,044 yards for its Par 70) and tighter than the Plantation Course at Kapalua, with thicker tree lines, more bunkers, and smaller greens. So it’s unlikely that anyone will get to -35 this week… particularly with a breezy weather forecast in play.

Our winner this week will likely have played in The Sentry last time out, which narrows the field down to a high-quality bunch that includes Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Robert MacIntyre, Billy Horschel, and Russell Henley, to name just some of the OWGR top-20 in the hunt for silverware. 

Tragically, the reigning Sony Open champion Grayson Murray took his own life last year, and you can expect a suitably poignant tribute to him throughout the week.

Murray bested Bradley and Byeong Hun An in a playoff 12 months ago, producing one of the best tee-to-green performances of his career to set up a second PGA TOUR win. Bradley ought to have won, but he couldn’t birdie the final hole in regulation play… which also happens to be one of the easiest on the course. Winning ain’t easy.

Accurate sorts who can control their ball in the breeze have typically thrived at Waialae, with success at similarly squally and tight tracks a welcome advantage. Many that fit the bill in this field are available at short odds this week, but there’s still a quintet at longer prices who are well worth having on side.

With that in mind, here’s our 2025 Sony Open sleeper shortlist.

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Chris Kirk – 50/1 – It would be fair to describe 2024 as a strange year for Chris Kirk.

He won The Sentry back in January, posted a T10 finish in a Signature Event (RBC Heritage), as well as T16 in The Masters.

And then, well, it all went a bit pear-shaped.

But course fits don’t get much better than Kirk at Waialae, where he’s twice finished second, as well as solo third and T5.

Will his form need to improve? Yes it will, but he drove the ball well at Kapalua last week, and if he can find some touch with his irons and wedges, Kirk can once again thrive at a happy hunting ground.

Sepp Straka – 55/1 – Given how well Sepp Straka has been striking the ball over the past few months, he will surely get close to winning another PGA TOUR title soon.

A reliable fairway finder that is elite on approach, it’s short game woes that hold the Austrian back. It’s true that Waialae can expose any frailties in that department, but Straka is capable of spikes in his putting – excellent shows with the flat stick guided him to top-fives in the correlating RBC Heritage and Charles Schwab Challenge in 2024 alone.

A winner at PGA National – a similarly breezy track with hard-to-find greens, Straka is well on course to add a third PGA TOUR trophy to his collection. 

Cam Davis – 55/1 – Five players went birdie-or-better on 30 or more holes at Kapalua. One of them was Cam Davis.

The Australian, while a big hitter off the tee usually, has shown an ability to adapt his game to less-than-driver surroundings when required; top-tens here at Waialae, as well as in the RBC Heritage and even the Wyndham Championship, show the versatility in Davis’ locker.

A win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T12 at The Masters, in 2024 showcase the growing maturity of Davis, who will be hoping to add more silverware to his collection in 2025.

Daniel Berger – 60/1 – As a general rule, we want to be backing participants from The Sentry this week. 

But exceptions can be made for players with the quality of Daniel Berger, who brings the welcome cocktail of increasingly strong form with some previous at Waialae.

A watershed moment back in the summer saw Berger suddenly start putting better, with solo seventh at the Sanderson Farms Championship followed by T2 at the RSM Classic last time out. 

Accurate off the tee and with class through the bag on approach, it’s no wonder that Berger has a top-ten to his name in the Sony Open… he’ll be looking to add another this week, and potentially even a fourth PGA TOUR title.

Doug Ghim – 90/1 – There’s a ton of upside to Doug Ghim in short tests of accuracy… especially when you consider that he gained strokes putting, normally his achilles heel, on the field in each of his last three measured appearances of 2024.

Whether that renaissance continues this year we’ll have to wait and see, but if it does this accurate driver and outstanding wedge-and-iron player will become a different animal entirely.

Ghim ranked amongst the elite from tee-to-green last season, and all it will take is an uptick with the flatstick for him to match his statistical excellence with big performances out on the course.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the the Sony Open here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024-2025)

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