Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2025 TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

You didn’t need to be a body language expert to sense the stress and anxiety that Robert McIntyre felt as he was chased down by Scottie Scheffler at the BMW Championship on Sunday. He led by five shots, then four… and then zero, as bogeys at one, two, and five – plus a -1 start from playing partner Scheffler in that span – saw MacIntyre’s lead eviscerated. 

In theory, the Scot wasn’t out of the tournament picture at that point, but the psychological toil of having lost a lead that at one point stood at five shots was too much to overcome. And besides, Scheffler was never likely to mess up the chance to land a fifth PGA TOUR title of the season once he asserted himself at the top of the leaderboard.

So we’re down to the final hurrah for the season: the TOUR Championship. Only the 30 best players, as per the FedEx Cup standings, will stand a chance of being crowned FedEx Cup champion. Note: there’s no starting strokes anymore, so everyone has a crack at the title.

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East Lake, the host venue in Atlanta, Georgia, has long been the refuge of the smoothest of ball-strikers. So who will win the TOUR Championship in 2025? Below are our betting picks, accompanied by a quick summary of each player’s chances heading into the seasonal curtain call:

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Scottie Scheffler – 13/8 – The best player in the world, playing better golf than anybody else right now, at a venue where his scoring average is 67.95 from five trips. Can Scottie be stopped? He even won with a fill-in caddie last week, so even that possible red flag has been taken down.

Rory McIlroy – 15/2 – East Lake just feels like a strong venue for Rory, which is attested by a scoring average of 68.11 from four visits. The Irishman has spoken of a loss of motivation since completing the career grand slam at The Masters, but he will be bang up for it this week. McIlroy dusted off the cobwebs with a below-par effort at the BMW Championship, finding just 42% of fairways and gaining a paltry +0.35 on approach.

Tommy Fleetwood – 14/1 – From a purely ball-striking perspective, Fleetwood is right up there with the best of them at the moment. But concerns about his ability to close out wins are unlikely to be tempered this week, given how the pressure is ramped up at East Lake.

Ludvig Aberg – 18/1 – A long, straight shooter, Aberg – in theory – is a solid fit for East Lake. But for a final round on Sunday, he could have contended for the trophy at the BMW Championship, backed up again by another classy show of ball-striking, plus +4.13 cumulative gain on the greens. Now has three top-10s in his last four starts.

Justin Thomas – 22/1 – A scoring average of 67.81 at East Lake from eight visits is nothing short of outstanding from Justin Thomas. But his game is icy cold right now, with just one top-10 finish since May. He also delivered one of his worst ball-striking performances in quite some time at the BMW last week.

Patrick Cantlay – 22/1 – Although not a vintage season for Patrick Cantlay, his ball-striking has generally been very good this summer. Issues on the greens have prevented a more concerted run at silverware. Has a reasonable record at East Lake, with a scoring average of 69.25 from seven trips. However, he found just 50% of fairways last week, just 58% of GIR, and recorded a cumulative -3.25 on approach.

Russell Henley – 25/1 – He’s made four trips to East Lake over a span of eleven years, recording an excellent scoring average of 68.00. Henley played well enough in his T15 at Caves Valley, which is a track that didn’t necessarily suit. With six consecutive top-20 finishes to his name, he can feel bullish about his chances on home Georgia soil this week.

Viktor Hovland – 25/1 – Nobody in the field this week can better Viktor Hovland’s scoring average at East Lake: 67.40 from five visits. He played pretty well last week, with a mammoth +6.29 gain on the field on approach, so the Norwegian is very much a live contender at East Lake once more.

Collin Morikawa – 25/1 – Another with a fine record at East Lake is Collin Morikawa (68.00 from five visits), who effectively topped the strokeplay leaderboard here 12 months ago. But concerns about the state of his game, particularly on and around the greens, will perhaps preclude him from beating Scheffler and co this week.

Sam Burns – 28/1 – A Bermuda specialist, at his best Sam Burns could win an event like the TOUR Championship. But his ball-striking has, for the most part, regressed this season, with T4 at the BMW Championship powered by a staggering +7.95 gain on the field putting. He will need to improve from tee-to-green to have a chance of winning this week.

Cam Young – 30/1 – The late season bloom of Cameron Young has powered him all the way to the TOUR Championship. A winner at the Wyndham and T5 at the St Jude, Young had confidence going into the BMW and landed a solo eleventh; albeit losing strokes on the field on approach. Is Young also a little too wild off the tee to compete at East Lake?

Ben Griffin – 30/1 – By his own admission, Ben Griffin ‘overdosed’ on Creatine on Sunday, playing his first three holes in +6. But he bounced back with seven birdies thereafter, to his record. An East Lake debutant, some concerns about his driving add a touch of pessimism to a player that has otherwise enjoyed a fine breakout season.

J.J. Spaun – 30/1 – In 2025, J.J. Spaun has won the U.S. Open and lost in playoffs at the PLAYERS Championship and St Jude Championship. He may not be a household name, but Spaun is one of the best players in the world right now. This being his East Lake debut is a red flag, but a strong putting week could power Spaun into contention once more given his accurate ball striking.

Hideki Matsuyama – 30/1 – What a strange season it has been from Hideki Matsuyama, who won The Sentry back in January but hasn’t posted a single top-10 since. He ranked 34/50 for ball striking and 30/50 for SG: Putting at the BMW, so will need a remarkable upturn in fortunes to win this week.

Robert MacIntyre – 30/1 – Ranking second and third on approach and putting respectively at the BMW, there was a lot to like about Robert MacIntyre’s game besides losing that healthy lead. The Scot, if he can shake off that disappointment, could go well again at East Lake, and a finish of T16 here a year ago on debut was encouraging enough.

Sepp Straka – 33/1 – A two-time winner this year, Sepp Straka is often one to watch at tracks that favor accurate ball-striking; as confirmed by a scoring average of 68.42 at East Lake. But has the Austrian’s game cooled at the wrong time? He withdrew from the BMW for family reasons, and has just one top-10 finish since the start of June.

Corey Conners – 40/1 – For a player of his obvious talent, it’s amazing that Corey Conners still only has two PGA TOUR wins to his name – both coming at the Texas Open. He is a sublime ball-striker at his best, but finishes of solo 39 at the BMW and T50 at the St. Jude will hardly fill backers with confidence.

Justin Rose – 40/1 – Could the veteran go in again? Justin Rose’s win at the St. Jude was a real moment for the 45-year-old, who proved that he can still mix it with the young guns. He drove the ball poorly at the BMW, while losing -1.46 putting, so punters will need to decide if form or pedigree will be decisive for Rose at East Lake.

Maverick McNealy – 40/1 – Pound for pound, Maverick McNealy played his best golf for quite some time at the BMW, finishing solo third. However, a note of caution: he was a whopping +9.18 on the greens, losing -1.86 to the field off the tee. McNealy’s bomb-happy approach may not cut the mustard on debut at East Lake.

Harris English – 45/1 – One under-the-radar moment of the 2025 season has been the resurgence of Harris English, who followed his win at the Farmers Insurance Open with runner-up finishes at the British Open and PGA Championship, as well as T12 at The Masters. He has, however, lost strokes on approach in each of his last two starts, which is not ideal heading to East Lake.

Keegan Bradley – 45/1 – The Ryder Cup captain has tailed off considerably since winning the Travelers Championship, which has put his playing status at the event under threat. Bradley would love a strong week at East Lake, but unfortunately his record at the venue isn’t great – of all the players in the field that have tackled the TOUR Championship twice or more, only Corey Conners has a worse scoring average than Keegan.

Harry Hall – 50/1 – Could Harry Hall make a late run at Europe’s Ryder Cup team? The suggestion is possibly, but only if he has a good run at the TOUR Championship. The issue for the Brit is that his putter is doing much of the heavy lifting of his current hot streak, with concerns over his ball-striking an issue on debut at East Lake.

Akshay Bhatia – 60/1 – A finish of 24th here 12 months ago does not particularly excite, but Akshay Bhatia’s ball striking has been very good of late. He has a high performance ceiling, and in finishing T3 at the PLAYERS Championship earlier this season, Bhatia reiterated his class. There hasn’t been much since, but T6 at the St. Jude was a big step forward.

Brian Harman – 66/1 – The left-hander has never shown much of a liking for East Lake, with a scoring average of 69.67 from three trips meaning that he is, essentially, two strokes worse off than Scheffler, Hovland, and co at this venue. Harman’s recent form is pretty good, though, so backers will need to decide if a -3.93 loss on the greens at the BMW is an aberration or a problem.

Shane Lowry – 66/1 – It’s hard to get excited about the prospects of Shane Lowry, who hasn’t posted a top-20 finish since the start of June. He was roughly halfway down the field at the BMW too, with errors creeping into his game off the tee in particular. But, for all that, the Irishman has a scoring average of 67.75 at East Lake, albeit from just one visit.

Chris Gotterup – 70/1 – A summer flourish has powered Chris Gotterup into the TOUR Championship. His bombs off the tee and imagination around the greens found a happy home when winning the Scottish Open, but you sense that his approach play will need to improve if he is to become an elite player. This is his East Lake debut.

Sungjae Im – 80/1 – Quite how a player ranking 166th on the PGA TOUR this season for SG: Approach can contend at East Lake remains to be seen. This has been Sungjae’s worst season, and yet here he is in the TOUR Championship – a testament to the other areas of his game. But he finished 40th at the BMW with a -10.58 loss on approach, so Im’s game is nowhere near where it needs to be.

Nick Taylor – 100/1 – The Canadian is so talented that 100/1 in a 30-man field feels borderline offensive. But Taylor’s game is not in fine fettle right now, with big losses to the field in all departments when finishing way down the field at the BMW. A sole trip to East Lake in 2023 saw Taylor finish 21/30.

Jacob Bridgeman – 125/1 – Credit to Jacob Bridgeman for making it to the TOUR Championship, thanks largely to a handful of top-10s – including a couple of near wins on the Florida Swing. The concern is that his results are largely driven by his short game, whereas East Lake is a test of ball-striking, as previously mentioned.

Andrew Novak – 150/1 – The rank outsider of the field is Andrew Novak, which feels somewhat unfair. But he did finish 48th out of 50 at the BMW, with his game in dire straits. However, he finished T6 in his prior outing at the St. Jude, so it’s anybody’s guess what Novak will deliver this week. 

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the TOUR Championship here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024-2025)

30

Tourneys Played

74483638

Season Earnings YTD

4

Winners Picked

51

Top 10s

266

Cuts Made

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