Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The 2023 Masters

2023 Masters Fantasy Sleeper Report

There’s a line in Rudyard Kipling’s ‘If’ where he extols the virtues of ‘keeping your head while all about you are losing theirs’.

It’s a sentiment perfect for any given Sunday on the PGA TOUR, with Corey Conners keeping his head with a bogey-free round of 68 to claim his second Texas Open victory – and thus preventing anyone else from booking their spot in The Masters this week.

Whether Patrick Rodgers lost his head or his swing only he knows, but he jettisoned his two-shot lead after 54 holes with alarming ease. Sam Stevens, conversely, closed his effort like a train – if his birdie putt at the last hadn’t shaved the hole, who knows how the tournament might have ended.

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But Conners will take his place amongst the most exalted company for the 2023 Masters, which as ever will unfold at the glorious Augusta National.

Whether it’s quite as glorious this week – there’s plenty of rain and cool temperatures in the forecast – remains to be seen, but if nothing else Augusta provides an outstanding test of all-round golf quite unlike any other.

This mammoth 7,545 yard Par 72 has been lengthened once more – specifically the thirteenth hole, which will now see the players take a long iron into that tiny postage stamp green protected by the water hazard out front.

Changes to Augusta in recent years have made the Par 5s somewhat harder while retaining the complexity of the Par 3s and many of the Par 4s, with a winning score of -10 enough to get the job done here in each of the last two years.

But anyone that does want to triumph will probably have to be long off the tee – many of Augusta’s holes have landscaping designed to minimize ball-run, elite on approach and have a scrambling/chipping game that helps them to keep as many bogeys off their cards as possible.

At this point you might have more chance of beating Scottie Scheffler inside the ropes than on the golf course, even though a classy field will try their best to wrestle the Green Jacket away from the world number one. Rory, Rahm, Tiger, Xander, Jordan and a cast of LIV Golf entrants headed by Cameron Smith. 

Golf majors are generally not particularly fertile ground for long-shot winners, although the likes of Danny Willett, Bubba Watson and Patrick Reed have won here at 50/1 and Hideki Matsuyama was a shade shorter at 45/1 in 2021.

So we can but hope….the weather conditions could well open the door to a shock winner, so it’s in that spirit we reveal our sleeper shortlist for the 2023 Masters:

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Shane Lowry – 55/1 – When betting on a major, often it makes sense to back those that have been there, done it and got the trophies to prove it.

A former British Open champion, Shane Lowry knows what it takes to win majors and he has the game for success at Augusta, too. The Irishman boasts class through the bag, recovers and chips well and generally putts well enough to make the most of his opportunities.

If you look at Lowry’s formline at Augusta, he has been getting better and better year after year – T3 here last year being his optimum result thus far. Can he go one or two steps forward in 2023?

Tommy Fleetwood – 60/1 – Given that he’s a ball-striking behemoth with a decent short game, it’s something of a surprise that Tommy Fleetwood hasn’t contended in more majors.

He’s recorded three top-20s at Augusta, which suggests a firm foundation upon which to build, and T3 last time out at the Valspar Championship suggests his game is in good shape – confirmed by the fact that he’s gained strokes on the field on approach in each of his last five strokeplay starts.

There really are few holes in Fleetwood’s game, and he’s the sort of player that can win majors when the mental aspect of winning aligns with his undoubted ability.

Justin Rose – 75/1 – If there’s value in backing those that know Augusta like the back of their hand, Justin Rose’s resumé takes some beating.

In the last ten years, he hasn’t missed a single trip to Georgia, finishing top-30 in eight of those visits – including a pair of runners-up finishes.

This year, Rose’s lead-in form is much better too having backed up his win at Pebble Beach with a T6 turn at the PLAYERS, so there’s no reason why the Brit can’t add to his fantastic record at Augusta in 2023.

Keith Mitchell – 100/1 – There’s definitely a need for length off the tee at Augusta, but there’s more nuance to Keith Mitchell’s game than simply hitting bombs off the peg.

In fact, he’s gained strokes on the field on approach in each of his last six strokeplay starts, while his short game continues to bear fruit – his solo fifth finish at the high-class Genesis Invitational was based on solid chipping and putting form.

If you track Mitchell’s long-term form you also note that he tends to putt well on Bermuda greens too, so if he can fit all of the pieces of the jigsaw together this week then Mitchell could do some damage at Augusta.

Chris Kirk – 150/1 – Personal problems and a lack of form have condemned Chris Kirk to a lengthy hiatus from The Masters, but in 2023 he returns playing some of the best golf of his career.

Victory at the Honda Classic came after he had knocked on the door with third-place finishes at the Sony Open and American Express, and a continuation of that fine form came at the Texas Open, where Kirk finished T10 but was, at one point, just two shots off the lead on Sunday.

He’s another who generally keeps the mistakes to a minimum – no bad thing at Augusta, and that aptitude for staying out of trouble and making enough birdies to compete is a solid platform for Kirk’s return to the major stage.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Masters here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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