Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Honda Classic 2015

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for The Honda Classic 2015

Event Preview

The fields begin to get much stronger this week when the PGA heads east after completing the ‘West Coast Swing” for a visit to the West Coast of Florida, beginning with The Honda Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach.  The fairly new tournament, which was first established back in 1972, has switched venues six times now with this year’s installment being played on a course developed with major events in mind so look for low scores to be hard to come by.

One of the toughest parts of the course, holes 15, 16 and 17, otherwise known as the “Bear Trap,” will provide players with one of the most difficult stretches of golf all season and often can determine the outcome of the entire event.  Not only will the players be experiencing some of the hardest holes and competition of the year, but they will likely also have to contend with some rain and gusty winds if the weather report holds.

Since moving to PGA National, the victors have had winning scores in single digits in six of the last eight years after having double-digit scores in each of the previous 11 seasons.

The field this week will be by far the deepest of the 2014-15 season as 15 of the top-25 players from the OWGR will be making the trip—including world No. 1 Rory McIlroy.  Last year it was a tough race to the finish line and four players, Russell Henley, Russell Knox, Rory McIlroy, and Ryan Palmer, made it into a playoff where Henley came away the victor.  The winning score of eight-under par was the worst any champion had scored since 2008 when Ernie Els took home the trophy after he carded a six-under showing.

But enough talk about this week’s favorites (for more on them you can see our full fantasy preview here) let’s review the field and pick some undervalued sleepers to keep an eye on this week.

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

In an effort to continually provide our Premium Members with the best fantasy content anywhere on the web, this week we’ve added a bonus “Sleeper Report” to help you identify the undervalued, long-shots that can help you score some bonus fantasy points this weekend.  Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Sang-Moon Bae – 50/1: Bae has been phenomenal this season and already has four top-25 finishes through his first eight tournaments.  He has also already proven to be a winner with two victories in the last two years.  Bae won the Frys.com Open back in October to open up the season and is coming off a strong four-under, eighth-place at the Northern Trust open last week.  As with any tough course you know that there will be plenty of time spent right around the edge of the green with wedges, and that will benefit Bae, as his 67.8% scrambling ranks him as 23^rd on tour.  He is also able to avoid poor scores with a mere 11.9% of his holes ending in a bogey or worse, good enough for 16^th among his peers.  Bae has the skills to play well on a tough course and will likely compete once again this week.
• Luke Donald – 66/1: Donald is more of a contrarian pick to Bae as he has not won a tournament since grabbing seven trophies between the PGA and European tours in 2011 and 2012.  Since then he has still been decent, making 27-of-34 cuts and finishing in the top-10 eight times over the last two years, but Luke has always seemingly played well when going to PGA National.  Last year he scored 67-68-68 to start this event and finished in eighth behind a 88.9% success rate on sand saves and an impressive score of three-under on the par-3’s.  Not many people will be on Donald after just two made cuts in five tourneys this year, but this will be a good chance to get him for cheap while he is low on the fantasy radars.
• Brian Harman – 125/1: While not being mind-blowing, Harman’s start to the 2014-15 campaign has been solid with made cuts in five of his first seven tournaments.  He’s also crept into the top-25 twice already this season.  Harman is coming off one of the cuts last week in Pacific Palisades, but his game sets up nicely for the course with his great ability to get up-and-downs including a sand save percentage of 68.9% (11^th one tour), and some solid putting (0.55 strokes-gained putting, 28^th on tour).  He used those skills to post a course record of 61 on a Friday back in 2012 at this event, where he went on to finish in 12^th place.  His ceiling is high for this weekend and he should be able to get to the final two days and make some noise.
• William McGirt – 125/1: The nice thing that McGirt has going for him is his improving performances over each of the past three weeks leading up to this tourney.  He has finished in the top-30 at each of those events and has increased his standing in each successive event, taking 14^th place last week in California.  On Sunday of that performance, a rainy, cold day that could mimic conditions expected at PGA National this week, he was able to shoot a 67 and vault himself up the standings.  His driving accuracy (67%), GIR (71%), and scoring average (70.34) all rank in the top-50 on the PGA TOUR, which puts him as a nice sleeper for the week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for this week’s Honda Classic here.

Cover photo by mrnoy9n on Flickr