Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Northern Trust

2018 Northern Trust Fantasy Sleeper Report

So here we are: after ten months of toil, the final 125 of the FedExCup has been revealed. These are the men who will battle it out for a small fortune in prize money in the coming weeks, starting with the Northern Trust at the Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus, New Jersey on Thursday.

What can the players expect? It’s a good question! The PGA TOUR doesn’t roll around to Ridgewood all that often, and indeed it’s three editions of this event – then known as The Barclays – in 2008, 2010 and 2014 that gave us our last looks.

Assuming nothing much has changed, this is a 7,319 yard, Par 71 that serves up dense tree lines, and that is perhaps why more accurate types – Hunter Mahan, Matt Kuchar and Vijay Singh – have thrived here.

Bo Van Pelt hits from the bunker at 12 during the final round of The…

Bo Van Pelt hits from the bunker at 12 during the final round of The Barclays at Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus, NJ. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The best clues, perhaps, come in the identity of the course’s architect: A.W. Tillinghast is responsible for some famous venues, including many that have hosted majors such as Baltusrol, Winged Foot and Bethpage Black, three of the more recognizable. That gives an idea of a man who liked to create challenging tracks.

The last three winning scores here have been -14, -10 and -8, so we don’t expect the players to tear this stretch apart, although with rain forecast on Wednesday there could certainly be some low numbers posted on Thursday.

There’s a switch from the Bermuda of Sedgefield CC at last week’s Wyndham Championship to the Poa/Bentgrass blend for the players to fathom out, too.

Speaking of the Wyndham….there was a welcome return to the winner’s enclosure for Brandt Snedeker, who had publicly bemoaned his poor 2018 just before the tournament began. The fact he set up his title triumph by joining the 59 Club – a magnificent -11 in the first round – was merely the icing on the cake.

It was a good week for Nick Taylor and Harris English too, who gate-crashed the top-125 of the FedExCup standings to give themselves an outside chance of clinching the big prize but perhaps more importantly trousering some much-needed prize money in New Jersey.

The last 12 FedExCup events have been won by classy sorts, and the last three Northern Trust champions have been Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Jason Day; be under no illusions, the big guns want to get their play-off campaign off to the best possible start.

Can a sleeper upset the odds and clinch victory; as our 70/1 play C.T. Pan nearly did at the Wyndham? Let’s take a look with our The Northern Trust sleeper picks:

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The Northern Trust Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Northern Trust Fantasy Sleeper Report

Hideki Matsuyama – Vegas Odds 50/1 – The beauty of these FedExCup events, and their high-quality fields, is that we can typically back some outstanding players at exceptional prices.

Matsuyama hasn’t been in the best of touch by his own high standards, but in closing out his Wyndham Championship campaign 64-65 he gave a timely reminder of his talents.

The Japanese star ranked fifth for Strokes Gained: Approach and seventh for SG: Tee to Green at Sedgefield, and so the signs are good that he can start to compete at the business end of tournaments again.

With two WGC victories to his name, we can rest assured that Matsuyama is the man for the big occasion.

Patrick Reed – Vegas Odds 55/1 – He may not be in red hot form right now, but this price on Patrick Reed is borderline offensive.

This is a Masters champion, a WGC event winner and a former trophy holder in this very event, and he has been discarded to the also-rans this week.

A missed cut at the PGA Championship is perhaps the culprit for that, but in his four starts prior to that he finished solo fourth at the US Open and delivered a top-30 finish at the British Open, so Reed certainly won’t be pressing the panic button any time soon.

A fantastic competitor, he tends to bring his best game when the spotlight is shining at its brightest.

Gary Woodland – Vegas Odds 66/1 – He keeps giving a masterclass in ball-striking, so you wonder if a big win is around the corner for Gary Woodland.

His seasonal GIR rank of five has been backed by finishing seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and eleventh at the PGA Championship.

He delivered top-20 finishes at both – T6 in the latter after taking the first-round lead – and so the omens are for another good showing this week.

Another player with top-20s at other Tillinghast layouts, we’re expecting a decent run from Woodland this week.

Xander Schauffele – Vegas Odds 80/1 – The 24-year-old announced himself to the world in his maiden PGA TOUR campaign by winning the Greenbrier Classic, but he cemented his status as one of the most promising youngsters in the game by clinching a FedExCup event – the Tour Championship – at the very end.

So far 2018 hasn’t quite lived up to the billing for Schauffele, but he found something at THE PLAYERS Championship, finishing T2, and has kicked on since then.

He’s bagged top-10s at two subsequent majors – T2 at the US Open, T6 at the British Open – and those are handy signs indeed.

He’s a class act, make no mistake, and you sense there are plenty more wins in the offing for Schauffele.

Ian Poulter – Vegas Odds 90/1 – Seven of Poulter’s last twelve rounds have been 69 or better, which shows that his form since winning the Houston Open has been maintained.

Indeed, he’s served up seven top-25 finishes in his last ten starts, so the consistency is returning to his game.

There is rain predicted for Wednesday in stormy downpours, and if that softens conditions then Poults should thrive. His attacking style of shooting for the pins tends to be well rewarded on softer greens, and shorter hitters have done well at Ridgewood in the past.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The Northern Trust here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”2.05%” bar_text=”4 out of 195 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”10.25%” bar_text=”20 out of 195 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”27.69%” bar_text=”54 out of 195 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”2.63%” bar_text=”1 out of 39 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”5.13%” bar_text=”2 out of 39 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”65.64″ bar_text=”128 out of 195 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram