Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2019 TOUR Championship

2019 TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Just when you thought you had a handle on how the FedExCup finale was going to pan out, along comes a proven champion to put an almighty spanner in the works.

Justin Thomas claimed his tenth PGA TOUR title at the BMW Championship on Sunday, and in doing so propelled himself all the way up to the top of the FedExCup standings with just the TOUR Championship left to decide who claims the ‘player of the season’ award.

For the uninitiated, this year’s FedEx conclusion will play out slightly differently. The top 30 in the rankings will proceed to East Lake as normal, however this year they are awarded a ‘handicap’ score based on their position in the standings.

So, at the TOUR Championship the whole field won’t start off at level par as normal. Instead, before a ball has even been hit the leaderboard will look like this:

Thomas -10; P. Cantlay -8; B. Koepka -7; P. Reed -6; R. McIlroy -5; J. Rahm, M. Kuchar, X. Schauffele, A. Ancer -4; G. Woodland, T. Finau, A. Scott, D. Johnson, H. Matsuyama -3; P. Casey, J. Rose, B. Snedeker, R. Fowler, K. Kisner -2; M. Leishman, T. Fleetwood, C. Conners, S. Im, C. Reavie -1; B. DeChambeau, L. Oosthuizen, C. Howell III, L. Glover, J. Kokrak Evens.

So yes, it would be fair to say that some in the field don’t have a prayer of winning the FedExCup – which is actually something the PGA’s officials had tried to stamp out with this revised format.

Never mind, let’s give it a chance and see if Sunday brings an exciting finish as the format suggests it might.

For bettors, the rules of engagement are slightly altered too. Most sportsbooks will be offering two general markets: the first is the ‘winner’ bracket in which the FedExCup scores are taken into consideration – so Justin Thomas is a red-hot 5/2 favorite, for example.

But many books are also offering a traditional strokeplay market, in which the lowest score will win as normal. This is much more appealing to bettors operating on a ‘level playing field’, and this TOUR Championship sleeper report will focus on this market.

Please, be sure to check with your operator which market you are wagering on before parting with any hard-earned cash.

Will anybody be able to catch Thomas in the race for FedExCup glory? It’s funny because ordinarily we would suggest not: the median winning score at East Lake is around -11, and when you factor in the handicaps on the leaderboard you might agree that only a small handful of these players can actually usurp JT – assuming he doesn’t have a stinker, that is.

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But there is a lot – and we mean a lot – of rain in the forecast, and a soft East Lake is a whole different beast to the typically dry version of this course, with its slick greens that feature tiered sections and demonic run-off areas.

If the players can aim their approaches at the flag with confidence, you expect lower scores than the norm to oblige.

Of course, birdie-friendly conditions are something of a double-edged sword for Justin Thomas. He will have ample opportunities to build on his lead, but if he is feeling the tension then he might just find a rather heavyweight chasing pack gunning for him.

Despite its critics, this new FedExCup format could well produce a knee-knocking finish on Sunday, and that ultimately is what we want as fans and spectators.

As bettors, we are also happy to get involved in the traditional strokeplay market, and here’s five who can go low at East Lake:

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TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Bryson DeChambeau – 50/1 – It would be typical of Bryson DeChambeau to flip the metaphorical bird at his opponents by shining this week.

He’s been the ‘victim’, and that’s a fair word here, of a hate campaign for his perceived slow play, and while he could do with getting a move on where there’s putts that could earn him hundreds of thousands of dollars we can forgive anyone for being a tad cautious.

These odds of 50/1 are excessive for a player that has won six times worldwide since the start of 2018, and while his recent form hasn’t been stellar there were top-ten finishes in the 3M Open and the Travelers Championship in recent memory.

And Bryson at his best would really enjoy East Lake: there’s little trouble off the tee, and his precision approach play would yield dividends on this archetypal ‘second shot’ course.

Brandt Snedeker – 50/1 – While Donald Ross’ imprint is on East Lake in only passing form – he was involved in renovation work on the track, it’s perhaps no shock to learn that Brand Snedeker won here in 2012 as a self-styled Ross specialist.

He’s been nibbling away at excellent form too with T5 at the BMW Championship following a good end to the summer, so Sneds is well placed to go well in Atlanta.

Snedeker is hitting the ball really nicely at the moment, and that ball-striking married to his exceptional short game could deliver the result we – and he – are looking for.

Gary Woodland – 60/1 – After winning the US Open, there has been an obvious drop-off for Gary Woodland.

He’s just become a father to twins too, which you suspect has its brilliant challenges, so maybe golf has been at the back of his mind for a while.

But the FedExCup finale will surely bring the best out of him, and especially at an East Lake track where long, straight hitting is most welcome.

Woodland has played well at East Lake (11-19-10-9), and a third round of 64 at Medinah hints at a return to form sooner or later.

Kevin Kisner – 66/1 – If East Lake was a touch shorter, it would be the blueprint course for a golfer like Kevin Kisner.

Hitting plenty of greens in regulation and putting well on Bermuda is where he is at his best, and with an eye-catching double-hand of T9 at Medinah and T12 at Liberty National in the tank the form is clearly there to deliver.

A return to home soil in Georgia will also appeal, and with one eye on the President’s Cup expect Kisner to raise his game once more to throw his hat into the ring for Tiger’s team.

Lucas Glover – 70/1 – It’s amazing that a player so accomplished from tee-to-green doesn’t win more.

But Lucas Glover is a major champion of course, and his sheer consistency has seen him battle his way into the TOUR Championship.

Six top-10s in 2019, including T7 at the BMW Championship last week, confirms that Glover is still very much a top player, and it would be a shock if he were to win the TOUR Championship….but he certainly wouldn’t be the most surprising winner this season either.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the TOUR Championship here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”6.06%” bar_text=”12 out of 198 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”14.65%” bar_text=”29 out of 198 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”32.82%” bar_text=”65 out of 198 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”7.50%” bar_text=”3 out of 40 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”17.50%” bar_text=”7 out of 40 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”66.67%” bar_text=”132 out of 198 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram