Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Valero Texas Open

Valero Texas Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

For many, the week in which the WGC-Dell Match Play is held – plus its alternative event the Corales Punta Cana Championship – is one to avoid, but as sports bettors maybe it’s a fool’s move.

Kevin Kisner, who reached the final last year to show us the clues were there, was a meaty 75/1 with the sportsbooks to win the Match Play, which would have resulted in some very tasty payouts.

And in the Dominican Republic, Graeme McDowell could be backed at similarly juicy odds, and he once again showed his fondness for coastal, Links style golf by rolling back the years to triumph.

So, that’s a pair of sleepers winning in the same week, with handsome profits available as a result!

Kevin Kisner of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen…

Kevin Kisner of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen Cup after defeating Matt Kuchar of the United States during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Will a similarly longs-odd champion be crowned at the Valero Texas Open this week? It’s quite possible, as the top four in the betting – Fowler, Kuchar, Finau and Spieth – can be classed as non-prolific, in the case of the first two (despite both winning this year!), and out-of-form in the cases of Finau and Spieth.

The conditions at TPC San Antonio are normally quite tricky, but with less powerful winds forecast than usual – and some rain around which will help to soften the surface – we could see lower scores than is customary; that lends itself to a sleeper winner.

There are some pretty wide fairways at this Greg Norman designed layout, ad as long as you avoid being blocked out by trees there isn’t too much to worry about off the tee.

Indeed, length off the peg is arguably an advantage, with most of the downhill holes playing into the wind, which on a course measuring more than 4,700 yards for its Par 72 is worth remembering.

The green complexes are Bermuda and fairly fast, and while normally they are quite hard due to the baking Texan sun ad strong winds, this week they may be more receptive than normal.

So, we’re looking for sleepers that are in form, are comfortable in Texan condition and who can give the ball a bit of a pelt off the tee.

With that in mind, who makes our sleeper shortlist for the Valero Texas Open?

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Valero Texas Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Lucas Bjerregaard – Vegas Odds 50/1 – The Dane’s win in the European Tour’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship back in the Fall seems to have been a breakthrough moment in his career.

Since then, Bjerregaard has banked two more top-10s on that Tour plus T12 and T30 at the Honda Classic and PLAYERS Championship respectively; not a bad way to introduce yourself to a new audience Stateside.

And at the Match Play he beat the likes of Justin Thomas, Henrik Stenson and Tiger Woods; this is a guy who can really play.

Bjerregaard doesn’t mind the wind and is comfortable playing the long approach shots that TPC San Antonio demands, so he might well be worth a look this week.

Aaron Baddeley – Vegas Odds 55/1 – Two of the eight editions of the Texas Open held at TPC San Antonio have been won by Australians – Adam Scott and Steven Bowditch – so Aaron Baddeley feels like smart pick this week.

The Aussies are comfortable in hot, humid and windy conditions, and perhaps there is something to Greg Norman’s design that suits the eye of his countrymen.

His best work has come in alternate events this term (T2 Puerto Rico Open, T7 Corales Punta Cana), but there’s a trio of top-20 finishes elsewhere too.

Baddeley enjoys his golf in Texas, evidenced by a formline of 16-5-29-20 here and a top-five return at the Houston Open.

Ryan Palmer – Vegas Odds 60/1 – There’s some indifferent form in the book, and that explains why Ryan Palmer has been relatively shunned this week.

But the big Texan knows this course like the back of his hand with three top-10s in the last four years, and we fancy him pulling something similar out of the bag once more.

The three-time PGA TOUR winner has got the necessary length to perform well at TPC San Antonio, is something of a birdie machine and, of course, has the local knowledge that has proven so useful in the past at this layout.

Joel Dahmen – Vegas Odds 80/1 – The world number 137 is playing strong, consistent golf at present, and that should help him to add another decent paycheck to his collection this week.

Dahmen had a shocking spell earlier in the campaign when he missed four consecutive cuts, but he has found a way through his swing problems and put a run of good performances together.

T12 at THE PLAYERS Championship came from nowhere, but that’s been followed by T30 at the Valspar Championship – more form on Bermuda – and a T12 at the Corales Punta Cana, where he will have been slightly disappointed to have fallen away having had a share of the lead early on.

Dahmen has played well in Texas in the past and has a T23 finish at Mayakoba to his name.

Austin Cook – Vegas Odds 80/1 – If the weather forecasters have got it wrong and things do take a turn for the worst, Austin Cook might be a man to have on side.

The youngster has already impressed on the PGA TOUR and has confirmed himself as a fine player in a wind, as his win at the RSM Classic last season shows.

But this is a guy who banked a top-30 in his first ever start in the British Open as well, with top-20s in the breezy Sony Open and CareerBuilder Challenge in his maiden campaign also following.

A period of indifferent form was, perhaps, laid to rest with a top-10 in the Valspar Championship last time out, and we’re intrigued to see how Cook kicks on from here.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Valero Texas Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”4.85%” bar_text=”5 out of 103 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”16.50%” bar_text=”17 out of 103 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”41.84%” bar_text=”41 out of 103 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”4.76%” bar_text=”1 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”14.29%” bar_text=”3 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”66.02%” bar_text=”68 out of 103 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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