Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Valspar Championship

2018 Valspar Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

While it would have been fantastic to see Justin Thomas continue his ascent to the top of the game (and give us another fantasy win) with yet another back-to-back win in Mexico last week, only the cruelest of critics could disprove of Phil Mickelson’s triumph in a country which has really taken to him.

Felipe, or ‘Feeeel’ as he became known by the adoring Mexican public, played a nerveless last four holes to secure his place in a playoff against Thomas, and when the younger man made a hash of his approach to the first extra hole Mickelson’s years of experience came to the fore.

He became the oldest player to win a WGC event, and put the world of golf on notice that he – along with another “old” lefty in Bubba Watson – are back in form and ready for another tilt at the green jacket.

And they won’t have to wait too long either, with the Augusta showpiece now just four weeks away.

Ryan Moore plays his shot from the bunker on the 10th hole during the…

Ryan Moore plays his shot from the bunker on the 10th hole during the final round of the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 18, 2018 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last week’s jolly to Mexico was a nice trip for the world’s top 50 players and assorted pros from around the world, because most on the PGA TOUR have endured a tough old schedule which has included trips to the ever-tricky Riviera and a wind-swept PGA National. This week, at Copperhead, things don’t look likely to be much easier.

Measuring 7,340 yards for its Par 71, the jewel of the Innisbrook estate is a plotter’s course where finding the right lines is essential if you are to avoid being blocked out by the dense woodland that pervades most fairways. It is an undulating layout with small greens and many doglegged fairways, and with strategic bunkering and water in-play there are obstacles lurking at every turn.

There are four Par 5s to navigate but these are not the paradise of bombers, with the players largely playing iron-iron-wedge to create a birdie opportunity, rather than any hopes of finding the green in two.

So in many ways it is a unique test for the modern game, and it would not be a surprise to see an ‘unusual’ name taking the spoils, as Adam Hadwin, Charl Schwartzel, John Senden and Kevin Streelman have all done since 2013 at Vegas odds of 50/1+.

So, who are the five players that could follow suit this week?

Ryan Moore – Vegas Odds 50/1 – The form of Ryan Moore is trending nicely ahead of a return to Augusta National, where he finished T9 last year.

T6 at the OHL Classic was followed two starts later with a T9 return at Riviera, which goes to show he enjoys the sight-lines created by tree-lined fringes. Form here – 18-3-5 – is another indicator of such.

Not long off the tee, Moore is not penalized around Copperhead like he is elsewhere, and an ability to make magic happen in and around the greens will naturally aid his cause this week.

We’re happy to take these odds on a five-time PGA TOUR winner who is in form and at a track he clearly enjoys.

Byeong-Hun An – Vegas Odds 55/1 – Ever since he won the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour at the tree-lined Wentworth, An has been one earmarked for success at a layout such as Copperhead.

He chose not to play at Riviera and did not qualify for last week’s WGC Mexico on account of his world ranking of 86th, but you suspect the Korean would have enjoyed proceedings at both.

Never mind, we’ll just have to back him this week at a course that should suit his precision-hitting game. An ranks tenth on Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and 25th for SG: Tee-to-Green, and there’s decent form in the bank too with T5 at the Honda Classic (played at the tough PGA National) and T23 in the Phoenix Open.

Jason Dufner – Vegas Odds 66/1 – One of the features of Copperhead is that the same layers tend to repeat their fine performances year in, year out, and one of the horses that tends to get into a gallop around this stretch is Jason Dufner.

He has gone nine-for-nine here with a best finish of T10 and a staggering six top-25 finishes in a row, and so he’s somebody we can expect to be there or thereabouts towards the top of the leaderboard this week.

Dufner heads to Florida after a poor week n Mexico, but you don’t have to look far for good form on his resumé: he’s banked top-20s at the Tournament of Champions, Sony Open and Honda Classic in his last five starts.

Bryson DeChambeau – Vegas Odds 110/1 – You get the sense that DeChambeau’s scientific approach to course management will work well around Copperhead, and a T27 return here 12 months ago was a small hint of what may follow in years to come here.

The John Deere Classic winner is in reasonable form of late with a best of T5 at the Phoenix Open, but the 24-year-old is someone for whom form is not necessarily instructive: he won the JDC last season not long after missing eight straight cuts!

We would expect DeChambeau to have a higher GIR count than most this week, and while he isn’t exactly the model putter who seems to favor Bentgrass he does at least have a top-five finish to his name in his last three starts on Bermuda.

John Huh – Vegas Odds 125/1 – In the space of 18 moths from the beginning of 2012, John Huh won his maiden PGA TOUR title (in only his fifth start), bagged top-20s in two majors (the Masters and US Open) and was named PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year.

Some players would have kicked on from that platform and established themselves as one of the best players in the game, but Huh struggled to replicate that early-career form and has since slid to 229 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

But he does occasionally show glimpses of his best form, and in recent years Copperhead has been particularly kind to him with a formline of 9-22-33.

So good results here, at Augusta and at Riviera a few weeks ago, where he finished T26 and ranked seventh for Strokes Gained: Approach, confirms that tree-laden layouts suit his eye, and for a player with six top-10 finishes to his name in the last three seasons that bodes well.