Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Waste Management Phoenix Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open

The 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Sleeper Preview

We bid adieu to California this week and east to Arizona for this, the Waste Management Phoenix Open (or the Arizona Open if you are a reader of a certain vintage!).

After a breathtaking climax to the Farmers Insurance Open last week in occasionally Biblical weather conditions, those in the field here will appreciate the sunny climate, minimal wind and a Par 71 track that is rather more forgiving than Torrey Pines at its worst.

As if he wasn’t highly-rated enough already, Jon Rahm confirmed the fact that he is a very serious talent with victory at the Farmers last time out.  He wasn’t even in the frame heading into Sunday’s final round, but an early eagle got him into contention and he accelerated on from there; a stunning three at the Par 5 last confirming his three-shot victory.  The manner in which he closed out his maiden Tour victory suggests that we have another prolific winner on our hands.

The Spaniard is in the field here in Phoenix and will be looking to emulate another pair of back-to-back winners also in the mix: Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama.  The Japanese ace is the defending champion here at TPC Scottsdale after defeating Rickie Fowler in a playoff 12 months ago, and with his prior pair of appearances at TPC Scottsdale yielding finishes of T2 and T4, Matsuyama looks to be an excellent value against his Vegas odds.

They will be joined by three-time winner here and Arizona favorite, Phil Mickelson.  Jordan Spieth will also be looking to get back into the winner’s circle on the PGA TOUR along with a catalog of ‘bridesmaids’ in this event; Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, Kevin Na, and Charley Hoffman have all been close but no cigar in Arizona.

Scottsdale is a 7,266 yard, Par 71 stretch with Links-style characteristics, and this is a course that rewards those who hit plenty of greens: each of the last six winners here have ranked inside the top-10 for GIR.  The weather will be warm and humidity low, so expect some tactical course management to ultimately win the day.  The last five winners have also played the Par 4s in as brisk a fashion as anybody else, so we’re talking bread-and-butter golf this week!

With that in mind, here are five sleeper plays who should outperform their Vegas odds and DraftKings pricing:

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The 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Zach Johnson – Vegas Odds 50/1 – Anybody that follows golf to a certain detail will know that there are some courses that suit ZJ’s short and technical game, and there are some that simply don’t.  That’s why when you reflect upon his season’s achievements, it’s almost as if he is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type character.  But he’s a major winner, so huge respect is due, and a string of form at Scottsdale reading 14-10-24-12 suggests he needs to be respected this week.  Given his T6 at the Sony Open, which included a round of 61, we’re confident that the form is in place for a tilt at the title here.

Emiliano Grillo – Vegas Odds 66/1 – A return to a more forgiving track than of late will suit Emiliano Grillo down to the ground, a fantastic young talent left in the shade recently with the likes of Hudson Swafford and Jon Rahm bagging their maiden Tour titles; perhaps this is finally the Argentine’s week to shine?  Five cuts made in six starts this term and three top-25s suggest his game is there or thereabouts, and while it may seem like a long time ago Grillo is a PGA TOUR title winner; earned at the Safeway Open in 2015.  Strong showings at The Open (T12), PGA Championship (T13), and The Masters (T17) in 2016 suggests he should have an eye for Scottsdale.

Keegan Bradley – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Three rounds in the sixties at Torrey Pines is a nice marker for how well Bradley is playing at present, and ahead of a trip to a course he has generally done the business on, that is eye-catching indeed.  After an eagle at the fourteenth he might have fancied getting his hands on the trophy last week but it wasn’t to be – nonetheless Bradley scores highly in many of our key metrics this week, especially his ability to hit greens (75% found so far this season) and his Tee-to-Green performance last time out (+1.89 strokes gained), and having gone four-from-five at Scottsdale in a chain that reads 24-17-MC-24-15 he has a chance, that’s for sure.

Lucas Glover – Vegas Odds 125/1 – There aren’t many players better at finding greens than Lucas Glover, and in truth it is a surprise he hasn’t picked up more PGA TOUR titles at the shorter tracks like Scottsdale.  But his form already this term – T5 at the Sanderson Farms, T3 at Shriners – speaks of an improvement, and while his record here isn’t great it’s hard to fathom why not: a proven tee-to-green specialist, Glover ranks inside the Tour’s top-20 for Total Driving and GIR; excellent weapons to have onside this week.

J.J Spaun – Vegas Odds 250/1 – Hey, you’ve got to be in it to win it, right?  These may be long odds but Spaun has showed up well a number of times this season and was just one shot off the lead heading into the business end of the Farmers Insurance Open.  That means the 26-year-old has recorded top-30s at the OHL Classic and Farmers in his last five starts, and with a clear improvement in his game perhaps he could be the latest Web.com Tour graduate into the winner’s circle.  Born in LA and schooled in San Diego, Spaun is no stranger to playing golf in these parts, and an ability to hit fairways and greens in these conditions will prove very helpful.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open here.

Cover photo via Instagram