Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Valero Texas Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Valero Texas Open
The 2021 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview
You bring together a field of some of the biggest names in world golf, set them loose in a mano-a-mano format and watch the fireworks go off.
And then you have a final featuring Billy Horschel and Scottie Scheffler.
The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play has been full of surprises over the years, and while this isn’t a diss piece on Horschel or Scheffler – both are obviously outstanding golfers – if you predicted this as the final then you deserve some sort of medal.
In the end, it was the experience of Horschel that prevailed over the exuberance of Scheffler, who was making his Match Play debut, in a 2 and 1 victory, and what this means for the seasons of both men moving forwards remains to be seen. It was certainly fun to watch, though.
Meanwhile, at the alternate event in the Dominican Republic, Joel Dahmen survived a late wobble to claim his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Corales Puntacana Championship. That was a culmination of a dream dating back two decades or so, and the emotional scenes at the end as Dahmen celebrated with his caddie – Rafael Campos, one shot back heading into the final hole, sunk to his knees – reflected just how important tall tournaments are to the players, no matter what their perceived status.
Speaking of status, they don’t come much bigger than The Masters, which is locked and ready to go in ten or so days’ time. This week, we have the Valero Texas Open to try and unravel.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Great win for Billy Ho last week, but unfortunately he wasn’t on our radar in Texas.
Our best finish was Brian Harman who came in T5 on the week. DJ, our horse pick, didn’t put up much of a fight and ended up fading to T28.
Match play is always a bit of a challenge when it comes to fantasy golf, so we’re happy to see stroke play back in action this week at the Valero!
The 2021 Valero Texas Open Field
The field at the Texas Open is what it is – largely made up of players seeking strokeplay form ahead of the trip to Augusta.
Dustin Johnson must feel as though he is in that camp, as he heads to San Antonio in the company of the likes of Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Abraham Ancer and Scheffler himself.
This will be a home game for the likes of Jordan Spieth and Ryan Palmer, who both have previous at TPC San Antonio, while Corey Conners also returns to defend the title he won way back in 2019.
Assuming he doesn’t withdraw, Dahmen will fly in and play his first event as a PGA TOUR winner, and there’s even space in the field for the ageless Davis Love III.
Yes, it’s one of those weeks….
This Week’s Course Preview
There are some golf courses on the PGA TOUR rotation that are, ultimately, defined by the wind.
If it blows, the challenge is all the more taxing – if it doesn’t, the birdies will flow.
TPC San Antonio can be placed in that category. When there’s a breeze this long old stretch of 7,435 yards becomes a real grind – not what you would have in mind a week prior to The Masters, but if conditions are benign then a winning score of -20, as delivered by Conners the last time this event was played, is there for the taking.
This Greg Norman design is almost tree-less and features notable undulations, so wind management and club selection are absolutely key. And this is a unique layout where there isn’t a general type to the fairways – some are sprawling and wide open, others are narrow and require more precision.
The Bermuda greens have been overseeded with Bentgrass and Poa Annua will run at around 11 on the stimpmeter – pretty much around the average for a PGA TOUR event, and they are pretty expansive stretches of real estate too.
There are hazards – some deep bunkers and three water hazards will play their part, but as mentioned it’s the wind that ultimately defines how tough the going is at TPC San Antonio.
Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX
It looks set to be a pretty nondescript and at times cool week in San Antonio.
There’s not a major threat of rain, so that’s something, although the temperatures are not expected to be beyond the ordinary – aside from a predicted 78˚F on Sunday, the average for the rest of the week is around 71˚F.
And early starters could be teeing off in 48˚F!
The other notable is the wind, which the forecasts estimate at between 12-13mph pretty much consistently throughout the week. At course level, that could be an even stiffer breeze.
Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open
While the 2020 edition was wiped out due to COVID, it was Corey Conners that opened his PGA TOUR win account the year prior and banked his sportsbook backers an incredible 200/1 payday.
The Canadian was there or thereabouts all week, and headed into Sunday with a genuine chance. However, his final round was truly bonkers all the same.
Conners birdied four of his opening five holes and then bogeyed the next four in a row to open the door for others.
But an astonishing run on the back nine – a bogey-free -6 – saw him take the spoils by two strokes from Charley Hoffman.
Others had chances, and Si-Woo Kim will be left to reflect on what might have been. The Korean was very much in the game heading into Sunday, and after birdieing the first he would have been feeling pretty good about his chances.
But a double-bogey on three, and a ten-hole run without a birdie, ended his hopes.
Corey Conners’ winning highlights from Valero 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valero Texas Open this Week
You may want to save your bank for The Masters of course, and that is your call, but there are plenty of intriguing contests available this week at a layout where we *think* we have a good read.
- PGA $700k Flop Shot: The top-paying contest on DK is certainly worth a second look – the winner trousers $200k, and what a bonus that would be ahead of major week. Using a clearly defined player profile for your draft, you should be in with a shot of banking some of the top-tier prizes.
- PGA $40k Dogleg: Single entry contests are a good idea when you feel that your reading of a tournament is going to be better than the majority’s, and using our notes hopefully that will be the reality. Take a look a this contest then, which pays a handsome $1k in a field of little over 1,000 players.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Valero Texas Open
We’ve only had one iteration of the Texas Open in this new spring timeslot, and all of the sings suggested that TPC San Antonio would play a lot softer and slower than normal.
In those situations, we expect quality ball-strikers to prevail – they should get more value from their precision approaches, and a leaderboard featuring Conners, Hoffman, Kim and Streelman in 2019 is perhaps evidence of that.
Given that the rough is easy enough to play from, there really is a premium on knocking approaches close. These greens at TPC San Antonio seem really pure in this spring timeslot, and even a notoriously weak putter like Conners had plenty of joy with the flat stick here in 2019.
We’re going to need to draft effective wind players too, and those with a penchant for golf in the south are also welcome.
If you are a fan of such things, there does appear to be a correlation between the Texas Open and the Desert Classic, which has some similar characteristics despite being held thousands of miles away.
Andrew Landry has won both, Si-Woo Kim should have won both, Charley Hoffman has won the Texas and finished runner-up at the Desert, Patrick Reed has won the Desert and finished runner-up at the Texas, and so on. There are many more links as well, so perhaps it’s one to pay heed to.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Valero Texas Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Valero Texas Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jordan Spieth (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 66.7, GPFP: 53.34 Salary: $10,700)
Could this be the week that Jordan Spieth re-enters the winner’s circle?
He’s got plenty going for him, not least the astronomical improvement in his approach play that has helped him to a trio of top-five finishes on the PGA TOUR within his last five starts.
This is a home game for Spieth, and while the absence of a sizable crowd will negate the advantages of that there’s no doubt that he will be feeling good nonetheless – particularly at a course where has finished runner-up in the past.
As his form holds with each passing week, Spieth looks more and more likely to get his hands on a trophy – at this golf course, in this field, he has to be fancied.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 28th
- Birdie Average – 34th
- SG: Approach – 43rd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Cameron Tringale (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 68.9, GPFP: 86.80 Salary: $9,300)
It’s telling that Cameron Tringale is one of the very few players in the field that has played the last ten editions of the Texas Open.
He isn’t a local boy, and he doesn’t have any ties to the area, and so the only explanation can be that he likes TPC San Antonio and fancies his chances of doing the job here.
His record at the venue is a real mixed bag, but there are a couple of top-10s and a T17 in the past decade and so there is some history to fall back on.
And besides, Tringale is playing better golf right now than he has done for quite some time. He’s made 11/14 cuts this season and banked six top-25s, including T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach and T13 at the Honda Classic in recent memory.
Given his excellent tee-to-green game at the moment, Tringale should fly at TPC San Antonio and he absolutely has the ability to win on the PGA TOUR.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 16th
- Total Driving – 27th
- SG: Approach – 47th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Sam Burns (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.4, GPFP: 53.90 Salary: $8,000)
With so much obvious talent, it seems worthwhile sticking with Sam Burns until he breaks that PGA TOUR title drought.
He wasn’t in particularly fine fettle at the PLAYERS Championship last time out, but search a little further back and his form speaks for itself – solo third at the Genesis Invitational and T7 at the Houston Open both could have been victories but for one poor round.
T23 here in 2019, that was a nice sighter for a player who should thrive at a venue where the large greens should help to negate his dire chipping game – otherwise, he is an excellent iron hitter and putter.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 16th
- SG: Putting – 23rd
- SG: Approach – 27th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Matt Wallace (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 52.6, GPFP: 42.09 Salary: $7,700)
One of the most prolific winners to emerge from the European Tour in recent years, the American audience is yet to see the best of Matt Wallace.
But the Englishman does have a quality game, and that was evident in flashes at the WGC Match Play, where he progressed beyond a tough group, and in T18 at the Arnold Palmer.
A noted wind player, Wallace hits some tremendous approaches and generally putts well, and his flaky chipping should be camouflaged given the size of the greens at TPC San Antonio.
This should prove to be a great track for him.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 4th
- SG: Approach – 22nd
- SG: Putting – 48th
Low-Tier Pick:
Harry Higgs (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 58.7, GPFP: 46.92 Salary: $7,100)
Another for whom chipping remains a mystery, Harry Higgs is nonetheless an excellent iron game merchant who can thrive when the greens are receptive and forgiving.
That will be the case at TPC San Antonio, which should play softer than in its mid-summer peak, and so Higgs’ competitive advantage can hopefully be leveraged here.
A poor February gave way to T19 at the Honda Classic and T29 at the PLAYERS Championship in March, so the 29-year-old is trending in the right direction.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 28th
- SG: Putting – 89th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Valero Texas Open
Jim Furyk (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 74.8, GPFP: 71.78 Salary: $6,800)
We had drafted Jim Furyk for the Honda Classic, and so were rather miffed when he missed the cut.
However, it can be foolhardy to write a player off after one bad week – especially a veteran as classy as Furyk, and with iron play at a premium this week he certainly springs to mind.
The Bald Eagle was playing well up until his ejection from PGA National, with top-30s at both Pebble Beach and Riviera, and so the same rules that got him into our draft for the Honda apply here.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 16th
- Putting from >20ft – 16th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 54th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 275/1, FPPG: 61.8, GPFP: 49.44 Salary: $6,400)
While it would be a miracle if Akshay Bhatia won the Texas Open, a cut made from a $6,400 selection is still a worthwhile effort.
The 19-year-old doesn’t even have a page on the PGA TOUR website, but we can tell you that he has plenty of quality for one so young and looks to have the right sort of game for TPC San Antonio.
He finished T9 at the Safeway Open and T30 at the AT&T Pebble Beach, so despite his flimsy resumé Bhatia has shown glimpses of excellence already. Can he kick on in Texas?
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
- SG: Putting – 43rd
- SG: Approach – 68th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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