Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 RSM Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the RSM Classic 

RSM Classic Fantasy Preview

The culmination of the Houston Classic last week revealed how the space between the ears can be as definitive a factor in determining who will win a golf tournament as swing paths, shoulder rotations and all of the other stuff.

It certainly explains why Scottie Scheffler, the 54-hole leader but a PGA TOUR maiden, struggled to convert his cushion on the Sunday, serving up a bogey on the opening hole and three more at the turn to shoot down any chance he may have had of getting his hands on the trophy.

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Jason Kokrak, with two wins in pretty much the past year, showed why the psychology of the chaser can be so much easier to deal with – aided by the experience of getting over the line before. His four birdies on the back nine were the hallmark of a player who now actively thrives under the pressure of contending.

Incidentally, Kokrak was once in Scheffler’s shoes as a questionable closer, so if you keep knocking on the door eventually you’ll find a way to cross the threshold.

That opportunity may come this week at the RSM Classic, which is the final full field event of the calendar year. Who will take the chance to end their 2021 on a high?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we were oh-so-close with our top pick Scottie Scheffler coming in T2 but luckily our Sleeper Pick, Jason Kokrak, came through big for us once again!

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In case you’re new to our picks here, here is what we had to say about the winner heading into last week’s event:

Long off the tee and an excellent putter on Bermuda greens, this week feels primed for a return to form for Jason Kokrak.

His formline looks terrible – MC-54 in his last two starts, but dig a bit deeper into his turn at the CJ Cup and you’ll note a player who after opening with a round of 77, closed 66-65-68.

Equally adept at making birdies as he is grinding out a score in touch conditions, Kokrak has won twice since the start of 2020 and racked up a host of top-10s too – he’ll be hoping to add to that collection this week.

All we can say is, what a start to the new season! With four winners picked in the last eight events we’re now averaging PGA TOUR winnings of $1.24 million per week!

RSM Classic Field

All eyes will be on Scheffler this week as he once again occupies sportsbook favoritism, but you suspect he will be challenged for supremacy in that regard by Webb Simpson and perhaps even Kevin Kisner, who has a fine record at Sea Island.

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A classy supporting cast features major champions like Justin Rose and Adam Scott, plus PGA TOUR winners in the shape of Harris English, Cameron Smith and Corey Conners.

Louis Oosthuizen, Joaquin Niemann and defending champion Robert Streb are other notable contenders in a field that has that end-of-year feel about it.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s off to the breezy St Simons Island in Georgia we go for the annual east coast jaunt.

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As ever, two courses will be in operation this week, with the Plantation layout hosting one of the opening two rounds and the Seaside track the other three.

We might as well start with the Plantation course, which is where the players will be hoping to make hay. A rather short Par 72 of 7,058 yards, this track is protected from the stiff winds somewhat by the thick tree-lines, and so going low here is absolutely vital.

Of course, much of the focus will be on the Seaside layout, which as the name suggests runs parallel to the coastline. As such, it has a sparse, almost Links-like feel to it, and completely exposed to the elements this can be a slightly tougher nut to crack.

Even so, at 7,005 yards for its Par 70, every player in the field has a fair crack of the whip, and the slick Bermuda greens will assist the pure putters who are able to make GIR with consistent regularity.

The greens are larger than average too, so don’t be surprised if the RSM Classic – as befits the end-of-year vibe – becomes a birdie-heavy shootout.

Weather Forecast for Sea Island, GA

The holiday feel on the Island will be scuppered by the presence of a strong wind this week, although DFS gamers should look out for what could be an almighty draw bias.

The early forecasts are not always the most accurate of measures, but on Thursday the breeze is expected around the 6mph mark and on Friday it looks set to be up to 16 mph – playing the Seaside course in the first round really will be an almighty stroke of luck.

The gale could reach 18 mph on Saturday, although with a slight drop-off expected on Sunday at least the winner will have a chance to earn their crown in less testing conditions.

Otherwise, the weather looks pretty fine with minimal chance of rain, sunshine and top temperatures of 73˚F.

SEA ISLAND WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the RSM Classic 

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The RSM Classic has a habit of throwing up surprise winners, and the 2020 edition was no different.

Of course, Robert Streb was already a former champion on Sea Island, but that victory came six years prior and in the meantime he hadn’t shown much in the way of title-winning form.

Opening rounds of 63 and 65 got Streb into the title picture, but he would yet need a clutch birdie at the 71st hole to force a play-off against home favorite Kisner, who seems to love this tournament above all other.

Kisner had fired a bogey-free final round of 63 to force his way to the top of the leaderboard, and arguably he had the momentum heading into that play-off.

But, as ever, these things don’t always work out as you expect them to, and Streb’s birdie at the second replayed hole was enough for him to clinch the trophy some six years after he had last tasted success on the PGA TOUR.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RSM Classic this Week

So here we go then – the final full-field event of 2021. We’ve been having a pretty handy run of things of late, so now seems as good a time as any to go out on a high.

• PGA $300k Flop Shot: There are a few different combinations of players to try this week, so we want to hedge our bets in affordable multi-entry contests. At $15 a turn, this game offers you opportunities to put a few line-ups together while duking it our for the $100k top prize.
• PGA $80k Up-and-Down: If you have a slightly larger bankroll to work with, this multi-entry game will cost you $55 per ticket – but with just 1652 teams entered, you’ll be a lot closer to that $20k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the RSM Classic 

A trophy bearing the names Streb, Duncan, Howell III, Cook and Hughes in the last five years does not exactly scream classy ball-striking expo.

Instead, it’s all about keeping your ball in play despite the howling wind, hitting lots of GIR and then having a hot streak with putter in hand – ideally making pretty much every birdie putt you look at.

The thing is that even with apocalyptic winds blowing, the winning score at the RSM Classic regularly reaches the late teens under par – that goes to show how little danger there is from tee to green at both of the Sea Island tracks.

We’ve already alluded to a potential draw bias, that is certainly something to keep track of throughout the week, but otherwise – sadly – there’s not a great deal to say about the RSM Classic….a resort crapshoot in which the fairest hand on the greens will likely prevail.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RSM Classic 

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RSM Classic

Top Tier Pick #1:

Webb Simpson (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 81.7, GPFP: 94.74 Salary: $10,700)

It’s amazing how the odd round of golf sticks in the mind.

The past year has been fairly nondescript by Webb Simpson’s high standards, but in closing out with 66-65 in his last outing at the CJ Cup you have to think he’s finely poised ahead of a return to a layout that he could not be better suited for.

He’s finished in the top-three of this tournament on a trio of occasions in the past decade, and a penchant for short, wind-affected events on Bermuda greens makes Sea Island a home from home for the 36-year-old.

As we’ve seen with the likes of Kisner and Streb, this event has a habit of players returning and troubling the top of the leaderboard year after year, and Webb Simpson and Sea Island is the perfect match….will he finally get over the winning line here?

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 17th
• SG: Putting – 37th
• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 39th

Top Tier Pick #2:

Louis Oosthuizen (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 89.0, GPFP: 92.56 Salary: $10,400)

There are a couple of interesting propositions at the ‘next rung’ of the player list this week, but Harris English – who you would think would Sea Island more than he does – hasn’t had the best time of things lately.

And so it’s Louis Oosthuizen who holds the most appeal given his excellent form that dates back a good few months now.

The best putter on the PGA TOUR last season seems to have lost his knack of late, but a return to pure Bermuda will hopefully suit a player who, bizarrely, now ranks 1st on TOUR for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green instead.

While not a regular visitor to Sea Island, it’s not as if this layout requires ay special expertise given how it yields to solid golf, and few have been serving that up in the manner of Oosthuizen over the past six months or so.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• Greens in Regulation – 1st
• Birdie Average – 43rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1: 

Chris Kirk (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 80.3, GPFP: 92.33 Salary: $8,000)

On paper, the Sea Island courses look to be tailor-made for Chris Kirk, and his formline in this event – a winner in 2013 and two other top-fives in the past seven years – is testament to that.

A noted wind player that is at his best on Bermuda greens, Kirk will find plenty of fairways if he brings his normal driving accuracy to the table, and that will hand him the edge on many in this field.

The Georgia native has been in reasonable form of late, with T14 at the CJ Cup followed by an opening round of 64 at Mayakoba, and so we can be bullish enough about Kirk’s chances of another fine turn at Sea Island.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• SG: Putting – 60th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 71st

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Chez Reavie (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 54.5, GPFP: 48.51 Salary: $7,000)

If keeping your ball in play while the breeze blows is key on Sea Island, few head there better equipped than Chez Reavie.

His season has not been one to behold as yet, but dig a bit deeper and we find some truffles in the dirt – he book-ended his turn at Mayakoba with rounds of 66, and then at the wholly unsuitable Memorial Park, which is one of the longest tracks we’ll see on the PGA TOUR rotation, he played three rounds at par or better.

That might sound like we’re clutching at straws, but Reavie should enjoy his trip to a layout that ticks all of his boxes.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 9th
• Driving Accuracy – 27th
• Scoring Average – 93rd

Low-Tier Pick: 

Andrew Landry (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 58.6, GPFP: 46.88 Salary: $6,800)

With two top-five finishes on Sea Island within his last four trips, Andrew Landry may go on to join the ‘course horse’ category – there’s no shortage of those here.

But the difference is that he heads to Georgia with some decent form in the bank elsewhere – T4 at the Sanderson Farms Championship followed by T7 at Mayakoba.

He’s a player that has the ability to be as much miss as he is hit, but the numbers stack up nicely for Landry this week and he has the profile of your typical RSM Classic champion.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 41st
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 55th

Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic 

Aaron Rai (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.3, GPFP: 45.81 Salary: $7,400)

It might be a name that is unfamiliar to some, but followers of the European Tour will be familiar with Aaron Rai already.

In 2020 he won the Scottish Open – windy, exposed, coastal just for reference – to go with his Hong Kong Open victory, and to keep the trend moving the Brit also has other top-threes on correlating courses in Ireland and Scotland.

He heads to Georgia in decent enough form too, with top-20s at Mayakoba and in Houston to set the scene nicely. A shorter hitter, Rai can thrive on Sea Island.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 20th
• Driving Accuracy – 53rd
• Scoring Average – 76th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic 

Hank Lebioda (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 53.6, GPFP: 42.86 Salary: $6,600)

There is a certain ‘type’ of player that keeps winning the RSM Classic, and Hank Lebioda is very much in that lineage.

He finally exorcized the demons of six missed cuts at the Houston Open, where his iron play was much better to go with a ranking of fifth for SG: Putting.

And that’s kind of the thing on Sea Island: you really do need a hot hand with the putter to succeed. If Lebioda takes his flat stick prowess to the RSM Classic, he could put plenty of low numbers on the board.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 17th
• SG: Approach – 32nd
• Scoring Average – 90th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”12.25%” bar_text=7 out of 56 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”14.28%” bar_text=”8 out of 56 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”26.78%” bar_text=”15 out of 56 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”50.00%” bar_text=”4 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”37.50%” bar_text=”3 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”64.28%” bar_text=”36 out of 56 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram