Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Sony Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Sony Open
Sony Open Fantasy Preview
There’s something about the rarefied air of Hawaii that seems to bring the best out of certain players, and Cameron Smith is the latest to join the list of dual Tournament of Champions-Sony Open winners after a record-breaking performance in Maui.
The Australian shot -34 to break the all-time PGA TOUR scoring record, with Jon Rahm not too shabby himself in second place at -33.
As you may have guessed, conditions could not have been any better at the Kapalua Resort, and Smith shot two rounds of 64 and a pair of 65s in a phenomenal display of all-round golf.
It’s the second time that the course has been taken for -30 or lower since 2016, and while it’s an undoubtedly stunning piece of real estate – and suits the early year vibe to a tee – questions remain about its suitability for a PGA TOUR test. It’s time those fairways were narrowed and the rough left up given how easy Kapalua plays when there’s no wind to speak of.
Anyway, those gripes aside, many of the Tournament of Champions participants will hang around on the island for the slightly tougher test at Waialae for the Sony Open.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our top guy was Colin Morikawa, who simply couldn’t catch the red hot Cam Smith in time.
Colin finished 5th, and although a healthy 62 on Sunday helped propel him up the leaderboard; it simply wasn’t enough.
In total, we ended up with three Top 10 finishes in our main picks segment for the week. A solid start to 2022!
Sony Open Field
Given how well he played last week, there will be plenty drafting and betting on Smith again this week – he’s a former Sony Open champion.
He’ll be joined from up the coast by the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer and the defending champion Kevin Na – all of whom competed at Kapalua.
Webb Simpson, who has a fine record at Waialae, will make his yearly bow, and he will be joined in the field by a host of players who have hosted the trophy in Honolulu – Russell Henley, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar and former back-to-back winner Jimmy Walker among them.
There are a number of Korn Ferry Tour and Japan Golf Tour invites to top up the numbers of what is a fairly thin field, and they will be joined by the number one ranked amateur in the world, Keita Nakajima.
This Week’s Course Preview
Unlike Kapalua, the Seth Raynor designed Waialae Country Club does have defenses to keep the players at bay even when the wind doesn’t blow.
The fairways are much tighter for a start, albeit something like the average PGA TOUR width, and the greens are well bunkered too.
But the wind is a major factor, that should be said, with winning scores here ranging from -11 to -27 in the past five years alone.
There is more tree coverage at Waialae than Kapalua, which offers some respite from the breeze, but it should be noted that there are just two Par 5s on this 7,044 yard, Par 70 layout – shooting low numbers on the Par 4s is of premium importance.
As was the case at Kapalua, the greens at Waialae are Bermuda and they run at a fairly sluggish pace – those that thrived with the flat stick last week should once again go well this time around….
Weather Forecast for Honolulu, HI
It’s pretty much a case of as you were on Hawaii this week to last.
It’s going to be sunny and occasionally cloudy, according to the early forecast, with temperatures hitting highs of 80˚F on each of the four days of action.
As for that all-important wind, this is ever likely to change of course, but the early predictions are for single digits from Thursday through Saturday and then up to 12 mph on Sunday.
Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open
The week’s lowest rounds of 61 from Kevin Na and Brendan Steele thrusted both into contention heading into Sunday’s final round.
Both started that race for the finishing line in decent enough order – Na played the opening nine holes in -2, with Steele going around in -3 which included a magnificent eagle on the ninth.
But the difference between a serial winner and a ‘bridesmaid’ revealed itself once more on the cutthroat final stretch. Steele bogeyed the tenth and played the rest of the closing holes in +1 with no birdies.
Na, on the other hand, accelerated to the line, making four birdies from 13 through 18 to win by one shot from the fast-finishing pair Joaquin Niemann and Chris Kirk. It was the American’s fifth win on the PGA TOUR, and his third since May 2019.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sony Open this Week
Here we go then: a return to ‘proper’ daily fantasy golf, and at a course that has a clear identity – and rewards a player we will detail in this article – tends to be the sort of week where we can go in deep with our contest entries.
- PGA $700k Flop Shot: The winner of this $15 event will pocket a rather handy $200k, which would be a nice way to start the year. There’s plenty of other welcome cash prizes, and with multi-entry available we can put together a number of quality rosters.
- PGA $40k Driving Range: With just 296 entries allowed and multi-entry of three teams, we can enjoy a slice of this contest that pays $6k – the top 20 earning at least $500 – from your $150 entry.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sony Open
When you look at the recent history at Waialae, only a few interesting titbits of insight reveal themselves.
Neither Na or Smith, the last two champions here, were particularly accurate off the tee, but distance does seem to be something of a factor – both averaged more than 295 yards off the peg, while last year’s top 10 on the leaderboard saw nine of those players average 303 yards or more.
Approach play tends to be less of a factor at Waialae than other PGA TOUR courses, but note just how key putting is – Smith, Na, Kuchar and Thomas, four of the last five champions here, are all noted ‘streaky’ putters.
As far as course correlations go, there does seem to be an (obvious) link between Kapalua and Waialae – Thomas and Smith have won at both, as has Zach Johnson, while Jimmy Walker has won at the latter and finished runner-up at the former.
Patton Kizzire and Kuchar have won at El Camaleon (home of the Mayakoba Classic) and Waialae, while Harris English has prospered at El Camaleon and Kapalua, so these are all links that should be taken seriously.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 105.4, GPFP: 84.34 Salary: $10,300)
There’s knowns and unknowns at the top of the salary list this week.
Cameron Smith is a worthy top-tier pick who, if he plays anything like he did at Kapalua, will surely go close once more. He’s a former Sony Open champion, loves it in Hawaii and we wouldn’t put you off him.
But $11,200 is a hefty price tag for a player who may be suffering from the ‘week after blues’, while others have question marks about them. We don’t know how Bryson’s big-hitting game will fare at Waialae – he last came here in 2019 prior to his lockdown beef-up, while Webb Simpson does possess healthy course form but does have a habit of flattering to deceive at such a lofty salary point.
So instead, let’s tick the box of a player who performed nicely at the TOC last week. Sungjae Im was rarely outside the top five all week until Sunday, and his 23 birdies and two eagles is evidence of a player in decent form.
With his notoriously hit-and-miss putter showing some signs of reliability, Im is perhaps the vale play on a slate of top-ranked players for whom question marks remain.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 11th
- Greens in Regulation – 12th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 18th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 73.3, GPFP: 58.66 Salary: $9,700)
As regular pickers of Abraham Ancer, we are perhaps in danger of backing the Mexican off the proverbial cliff.
But he is a player of such immense talent that he could yet go on to emulate the likes of Sam Burns in winning regularly in a fairly short space of time.
The FedEx St Jude champion is well suited to this test despite a fairly average record at Waialae – T2 and T7 at the RBC Heritage and Mayakoba Classic confirmation of his fondness for short, coastal outings.
His outing at Kapalua didn’t yield much, but we expect more from Ancer this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 20th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 29th
- Scrambling – 68th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Kevin Kisner (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 75.11 Salary: $8,900)
A fantastic 28 birdies were made by Kevin Kisner at Kapalua last week – only messrs Smith, Rahm and Thomas fired more.
That is a very handy in for a player that has three top-fives to his name at Waialae, and it’s not that long ago that Kisner was in the winners’ circle at the Wyndham Championship.
An excellent putter with a handy record at our correlating courses, Kisner is a lively contender this week.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 9th
- SG: Putting – 36th
- Birdie Average – 53rd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Joel Dahmen (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 84.2, GPFP: 67.34 Salary: $7,600)
He will probably go under the radar this week, but Joel Dahmen actually has the perfect game for Waialae.
His improving record at the track – from T73 to T12 in three visits – is perhaps testament to that, as is a fine record at some correlating tracks at Punta Cana and El Camaleon.
Strong off the tee, reliable with his mid-range approaches and putting better than he has for a while, Dahmen is ready to step up this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 48th
- SG: Putting – 58th
Low-Tier Pick:
Cameron Young (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 65.0, GPFP: 53.93 Salary: $6,800)
It’s been a hit-and-miss start to life on the PGA TOUR for Cameron Young.
Missed cuts at Shriners and the Fortinet Championship catch the eye, but T2 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T29 at the RSM Classic go some way to redressing the balance.
A back-to-back winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021, Young is a player of some repute who offers enough of the good stuff statistically – decent driving, precise mid-iron approaches and solid putting – to suggest he can thrive in RSM Classic style conditions once more.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
- Birdie Average – 10th
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 28th
Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 69.6, GPFP: 55.66 Salary: $7,600)
Keith Mitchell made 26 birdies at last year’s Sony Open – more than any other player.
Ten bogeys prevented him from improving on a T14 finish, but taking the positives from the stat allows us to see a player that is comfortable at Waialae – that’s three top-25 returns now in just four trips.
A noted performer on Bermuda greens, Mitchell has T3 at the CJ Cup and T12 at the RSM Classic to his name this term, and he’ll be looking to build on those showings on a happy hunting ground this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off the Tee – 9th
- Birdie Average – 38th
- Greens in Regulation – 68th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open
Patton Kizzire (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 52.6, GPFP: 46.80 Salary: $7,300)
Before every tournament we create our own mock sportsbook with odds based upon our ratings, and Patton Kizzire was a 60/1 shot in our pricing – far less than the 100/1 offered by the books.
That is also reflected in his daily fantasy pricing, and $7,300 is too good to miss for a player that will be something of a sleeper play this week.
A winner here and at Mayakoba, Kizzire has the perfect game for these conditions and is clearly more at home on Bermuda greens than any other surface – hence his lopsided formline when the TOUR heads to California, for example.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 70th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 95th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 99th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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