Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 American Express
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 American Express
American Express Fantasy Preview
There’s a funny moment in The Simpsons episode called ‘I Love Lisa’ when Ralph Wiggum, having squired Lisa to the prom, is then left heartbroken when the eldest Simpson daughter reveals she didn’t really like him that much.
Bart, in customary fashion, is on hand with video evidence of the moment, revealing to Lisa that ‘you can see the exact second where his heart breaks in half.’
Eagled-eyed observers of the Sony Open would have spotted when Russell Henley had his Ralph Wiggum moment – a missed putt on the 72nd hole confirming he would have to face a playoff against Hideki Matsuyama….after entering the back nine with a five-shot lead.
The writing was on the wall from that moment on, and when the Japanese ace stiffed a three-wood to within three feet on the first extra hole, well, you could see the heartbroken Henley realized his hopes of a long-awaited return to the winner’s circle were over.
As for Matsuyama, it’s been a dreamy few months. The Masters champion has put the disappointment of missing out on an Olympic medal on home soil behind him, winning the ZOZO Championship (back in Japan) and now the Sony Open within his last three starts. What will 2022 hold for one of golf’s most likely champions?
We’ll have to wait a while to find out, as Matsuyama sits out the annual jaunt to California for The American Express.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week we lost a few horses to the Hawaiian cut-line, with our top finishers being Kevin Kisner (T3) and Keith Mitchell (T7).
Seamus Power still continues to impress us, and his presence on our Sleeper Report helped the DFS cause with his T3 finish.
American Express Field
West Coast specialists Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay are two of the most notable names in the field this week, and they’ll be jostling for an early year victory alongside the likes of Patrick Reed, Tony Finau and Corey Conners.
Phil Mickelson returns as host and as a PGA Championship winner, while Si-Woo Kim takes the honor of defending champion – looking to bring about an end of an unwanted record that nobody has won this event back-to-back since 1976.
Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Talor Gooch and the hopefully heart-mended Henley are just some of the other names to look out for in this pro-am event, which will feature stars of TV and the worlds of sport, business and charity in a huge 156-man set up.
This Week’s Course Preview
After a hiatus in 2021, where just two of the host courses were used to help with Covid protocol, it’s back to a three-pronged attack in La Quinta this week.
Taking the lead is the Stadium Course at PGA West, which is a Pete Dye design that lacks some of his textbook devilish design features.
That said, plenty on the TOUR have described this 7,200 yard Par 72 track as ‘both easy and hard’, with deep bunkers and water in play on nine of the holes. The Stadium Course is used on rotation for one of three opening rounds, before taking sole hosting duties for Sunday’s final chapter.
The second course on the rotation is the Nicklaus course at PGA West, which as you may have guessed was designed by the Golden Bear himself. Weighing in at 7,160 yards for its Par 72, this layout is super short and features extremely generous fairways – perfect for low scoring.
Finally, the players will stop-off at La Quinta at some point over the opening three days too. Another short (7,060 yard) Par 72, the expansive fairways and large greens are designed for amateur players – unsurprisingly, the pros are able to take this strip to the cleaners, and rounds of 59 have been made.
In a unique twist, this Californian event is played on Bermuda greens – be sure to make a note of that in your handicapping of the field.
Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA
It’s back to business for The American Express, and it’s very much business as usual for the weather in La Quinta too.
Clear, sunny spells is the order of the day, and with the mercury set to hit 80˚F on three of the four days (Saturday is forecast to be a touch cooler), it’s very pleasant indeed for pros and amateurs alike.
The wind can occasionally get up in these parts, and while Thursday, Friday and Sunday are forecast to be in single figures, hopes could be shattered on Saturday with the wind potentially reaching 12mph or higher.
Last Year’s Results from the American Express
While a distinctly lower key event in 2021 courtesy of the absence of amateurs, there was still no shortage of action and drama in last year’s edition of The American Express.
Si-Woo Kim and Tony Finau looked the most likely heading into the final round, but a late charge from Patrick Cantlay – he made a bogey-free round of 61 at the Stadium Course, breaking the layout record by two shots – looked like it might be enough to gate-crash the party.
While Finau buckled under the pressure of the fast-finishing Cantlay, making bogeys at 11 and 14 to end his hopes, Si-Woo stood firm and even accelerated with the finishing line in sight – posting birdies at 16 and 17 to clinch the title by a single stroke.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the American Express this Week
There is no other way to describe it – The America Express stinks as a daily fantasy vehicle. Split courses, the presence of amateurs, the possibility of a draw bias….it all adds up to a difficult and occasionally frustrating event to try and decipher. That said, we love trying, so here’s two to target this week:
- PGA $60k Birdie: There are so many permutations this week, and players to pick from, that taking on a multi-entry contest will suit many. For those on a tighter budget, you can have a few stabs at this $3 entry game and still – hopefully – walk away with the $6k top prize.
- PGA $600k Flop Shot: Higher rollers and sharks are still advised to show some restraint this week – there’s plenty of great tournaments coming up in the weeks ahead, but if you can’t resist then this $15 entry game features multi-entry (key to spreading risk at The American Express) and a top prize of $150k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the American Express
Trying to pick a winning line-up in an event that features six-hour rounds, three different courses and players trying to smile politely at Bill Murray’s wisecracks is as tough as it sounds.
It pays to keep things simple, and so the smart play is to pick those who we feel have plenty of birdies in the tank at an event where the winning score has been at least -20 in each of the past five editions.
But there are some field notes worthy of your attention. You might think that three short courses with wide open fairways are perfect for the bombers to thrive, and yet Si-Woo, Andrew Landry and Adam Long ranked 16, 3 and 12 respectively for Driving Accuracy – the trio averaged around 293 yards off the peg between them.
As you would expect, hitting greens and making putts is key, so there’s two main routes to success this week – back those with magic irons who will hit to close proximity time and time again, or those streaky putters who seem to sink their ball from all angles.
The combination of West Coast form and Bermuda putting is a unique one, but if you can find those who tick both boxes then you could well be onto a winner.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the American Express
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the American Express
Top Tier Pick #1:
Talor Gooch (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 102.4, GPFP: 81.95 Salary: $9,700)
It’s amazing to think that just a year ago we had put Talor Gooch up as a mid-tier pick in this event, his $7,400 salary matched by sportsbook odds of 90/1.
Fast forward a year and he’s a third of the price, but given his progressive form it’s easy to see why.
Since the last time the TOUR headed for La Quinta, Gooch has clinched his maiden PGA TOUR title at the RSM Classic and posted an array of other quality finishes in classy fields – T5 at the PLAYERS Championship, T5 at the CJ Cup and T12 at the Genesis Invitational, to name but three.
He actually played pretty well at Waialae despite his lowly T27 finish, opening up 67-66-66, and we’re inclined to think he will play better this week at a layout that will suit his accurate long approaches and ability to make hay on the Par 5s.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 6th
- SG: Approach – 10th
- Total Driving – 38th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Corey Conners (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 82.9, GPFP: 66.34 Salary: $9,400)
Even though Rahm has won this event and Cantlay finished in second place last year, our feeling is that the pro-am format does not lend itself to splashing huge chunks of our salary cap on the big guns – after all, the names of Adam Long, Andrew Landry and Hudson Swafford adorn the winners’ trophy here.
But a player who is nibbling away at golf’s top table has motivation aplenty to put up with the shenanigans of celebrities and sports stars bashing their way around this stretch of California, and so Corey Conners is very much on the radar this week.
The Canadian, up to world number 38, got his 2021 off to an excellent start at the Sony Open, posting two rounds of 64 on his way to solo eleventh.
Despite the trip to the west coast, Conners will certainly enjoy the fact that the action remains on Bermuda greens, and his putting stroke has seen exceptional improvements so far this term – that, given that he’s typically excellent from tee-to-green, is particularly interesting.
With a glut of fine showings on the correlated courses we have already identified, Conners certainly fits the bill.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 4th
- Scoring Average – 5th
- SG: Putting – 50th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Rickie Fowler (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 75.3, GPFP: 60.20 Salary: $8,500)
What will 2022 hold for Rickie Fowler?
Only he can really answer that, but T3 at the CJ Cup followed by a sprightly round of 66 at Mayakoba suggests that some of the old qualities might not be too far away.
He’s only really played this event sparingly – 10-21 in his last two visits – and yet you imagine it sets up quite nicely for him. The pro-am format can suit happy-go-lucky guys, and Fowler, who has won in the desert and on a Pete Dye layout before, holds the keys to success in La Quinta.
Will he capitalize? As ever, Rickie is a law unto himself.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 225-250 yards – 3rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
- Birdie Average – 18th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Brian Harman (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 51.5, GPFP: 48.41 Salary: $7,900)
In a week in which his short game fired but his ball striking was out of kilter, Brian Harman would have written off his effort at the Sony Open but for a much-improved Sunday.
The left-hander ranked 13th for SG: Approach in his final round, and so he can head to California feeling pretty good about his all-round package.
In his last six outings in this event, Harman has missed a solitary cut and finished T21 or better in each of the other five – T3 in 2017 the pick of the bunch. An excellent putter with plenty of Pete Dye form in the bank, he’s another who passes the box ticking exercise this week.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 51st
- SG: Putting – 59th
- Approaches from 225-250 yards – 88th
Low-Tier Pick:
Lucas Glover (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 76.9, GPFP: 86.15 Salary: $7,600)
It’s amazing to think that you can post -18 in a professional golf tournament despite a complete and utter abdication of your putting stroke.
But that’s exactly what happened for Lucas Glover at the Sony Open, whose approach play at Waialae was absolutely extraordinary – he ranked 40th for SG: Putting, alas.
Even accounting for something of a regression with irons in hand, Glover is at the peak of his powers presently and only needs to improve on the greens to make the most of the birdie opportunities his approach play is creating.
Perhaps the trio of layouts this week will provide that chance – in his last seven outings in this event, Glover has three top-20s to his name, so there’s something of an affinity with the greens.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 13th
- SG: Approach – 43rd
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 62nd
Sleeper Pick for the American Express
Scott Stallings (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 59.5, GPFP: 67.83 Salary: $6,800)
It’s crazy that sportsbook bettors can access 200/1 about a player that has finished T5 and T6 already this term at the Bermuda Championship and Fortinet Championship – the former featuring an incredible round of 62, and for a guy that opened with 63 at the RSM Classic in his last start.
Happily, such indifference has made its way into the daily fantasy pricing, and Scott Stallings is the perfect sleeper pick given the levels he can reach when his game clicks.
His is a game built around a rock solid flat stick, but at layouts with little danger from tee-to-green Stallings has enough about him to set up birdie opportunities – albeit without the consistency of a top-tier performer.
You might end up watching from between your fingers, but at this lowly salary Stallings offers bags of upside.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 32nd
- Approaches from 225-250 yards – 60th
- Scoring Average – 61st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the American Express
Joseph Bramlett (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 55.85 Salary: $6,500)
We’ve gone for not one but two enigmas in our sleeper spots this week, with Joseph Bramlett fitting the description to a tee.
Here’s a guy who in his last eight starts has missed five cuts and won the highly-pressurized Korn Ferry Tour Championship, so predicting his next move is fraught with danger.
But when on song, Bramlett delivers an excellent ball-striking game, and that was in evidence once more in his T20 finish at the Sony Open.
Once more, his putting stroke was found wanting, but if we dial down into the numbers we note that he ranked 21st and 32nd for SG: Putting over the weekend at Waialae – not headline-making, by any means, but enough of an improvement to feel as though he could go very nicely this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 31st
- Greens in Regulation – 44th
- SG: Approach – 58th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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