Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2022 Genesis Invitational
2022 Genesis Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report
Those of you that like to make notes to help inform your bets might just have put an asterisk next to the name of Scottie Scheffler on Sunday.
The Texan has long been lauded as a likely PGA TOUR event winner, but for one reason or another he is yet to get off the mark….or, at least, he hadn’t until the weekend just gone.
To get over the line at the Phoenix Open, Scheffler showed tremendous fortitude. His final round featured four bogeys as the front nine became the back, and that would have been enough to derail even the most experienced of champions.
But he rallied, got back into a winning position and then shoveled a birdie putt on the 72nd hole wide – a ‘winner’s twitch’ by anybody’s measure.
That left him demoralized and facing Patrick Cantlay in a playoff – that’s the FedEx Cup champion with a 3-1 playoff record, no less. But Scheffler against showed his mental toughness to grind out the win on the third extra hole, and now that the proverbial monkey is off his back you wonder how regularly he’ll now be back in the winner’s circle.
Who knows, he might even get his hands on the Genesis Invitational trophy this week, although he’ll have to beat high quality company to do so. All of the world’s top 10 are heading to the Riviera Country Club in the Pacific Palisades, and those outside that magic number that are in attendance include Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and many other quality operators.
This is a major-standard field at a major-worthy venue.
Riviera has been around for nearly a century, and while it has been tweaked and modified in all that time, it has still retained its essence to this day. The challenge is missing in the right places off the tee – the thick tree-lines and doglegging fairways, which shape either way throughout the 18, mean that rough will be found….it’s just the angle in that really counts.
The Poa Annua greens are a rudimentary size, but they are undulating in nature, and that means they can be tough to hold – especially when the Cali breeze gets up.
In short, you need quality through the bag to prevail at Riviera, and it’s no surprise that in amongst the five winners here we have three major champions (Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott), a Ryder Cup participant (JB Holmes) and, in defending champion Max Homa, a player that may yet hit those lofty heights.
But before you think that long-odds chances have no hope this week, note that Homa (60/1) and Holmes (120/1) both won from downtown. So it’s not implausible that a sleeper can take care of business.
With that in mind, who makes our shortlist of Genesis Invitational sleeper picks?
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2022 Genesis Invitational Open Fantasy Sleeper Report
Talor Gooch – 55/1 – The RSM Classic winner has only missed one tournament so far in 2022, and that is proof that he is very much enjoying playing right now and is comfortable with his game.
His last six tournament starts have yielded five top-30 finishes – three of them top-20s, and that consistency is fired by quality throughout his bag. While not the straightest off the tee, Gooch does have a decent record on doglegging fairways – it’s strange how these sight-lines and shapes can help to concentrate the mind.
His approach play and chipping have been outstanding for a while now, and while putting remains something of a mystery, it’s worth noting that Gooch has gained strokes on the field on Poa Annua greens – it seems to be a surface he can contend with.
A formline of 12-10-20 at Riviera only serves to add resolve to our feeling that Gooch is a contender this week.
Paul Casey – 60/1 – He’s been off chasing fame and fortune in Asia and the Middle East lately, but Paul Casey can focus on the real deal now he’s back in the United States.
These major-standard events tend to pique his interest, and he’s made six straight cuts at Riviera – with a best finish of T2 in 2015.
An elite ball-striker, Casey is another for whom we have to say a ‘hail Mary’ every time he gets on the greens, but he does have some previous on Poa Annua and at this sportsbook price, he’s hard to leave out of the equation.
Sergio Garcia – 70/1 – It may not have escaped your attention that three of the last five winners at Riviera – Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Adam Scott – have all won The Masters at Augusta. JB Holmes also has a top five to his name at Augusta, so the plot thickens….
As a former Masters champion, Sergio Garcia is on the radar this week, and he does have the neat and tidy game – plus the powers of recovery – to thrive at Riviera.
His record here is something of a mixed bag, but there are a pair of top-fives to reflect on. And, but for a weak putting performance (which is par for the course) he might well have finished a lot higher than T12 in the Dubai Desert Classic at the end of January.
Alex Noren – 75/1 – The short game possessed by Alex Noren is so impressive that he has to come under consideration in events where recovery is so important.
His putting was so good last week at TPC Scottsdale that it propelled him up to T6 on the leaderboard, and that chipping game will get him out of trouble a lot this week – an edge on some in this field, including big names, who struggle around the greens.
The Swede has two top-20s in three visits to Riviera, and we’re not entirely surprised by that.
Si-Woo Kim – 75/1 – A pick based on gut feel as much as anything, Si-Woo ranked inside the top ten for SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Around-the-Green at Scottsdale.
That’s a happy combination at Riviera too, and at a venue where the quality approach play of others will be diminished, his unique skillset could flourish.
Poa Annua is arguably his best surface, and with plenty of strokes gained off the tee lately Si-Woo should be in a good place at a venue where he has finished T3 in the past.
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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Genesis Invitational here.
Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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