Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Honda Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Honda Classic
Honda Classic Fantasy Preview
You can win golf tournaments the easy way or you can win them the hard way. Or, you can do what Joaquin Niemann did at the Genesis Invitational – making it look easy before winning the hard way.
The Chilean played near perfect golf across his opening 36 holes, making just two bogeys and running up a staggering 16 birdies and an eagle on his way to a six-stroke lead at the halfway stage.
But then things started to go awry. On Saturday’s back nine, Niemann opened with an eagle before playing the final eight holes in +2 – just enough of a drop-off to keep the chasing pack interested. All told, the Chilean went 16 consecutive holes without a birdie, but he righted that wrong at the eighth hole on Sunday and then an eagle at eleven was just about enough to see him home.
It would be easy for the shine to be lost in amongst his weekend woes, but let’s stay positive – Niemann practically lapped the field through the opening 36 holes, and that was testament to his world-class ball-striking. With two wins and 12 top-fives on the PGA TOUR at the age of 23, the Chilean has the brightest of futures to look forward to.
Given how energy and spirit-sapping that victory must have been for him, we were somewhat surprised to see Niemann listed in the field for this week’s Honda Classic, which heralds the end of the West Coast swing and marks the switch to the East for the next four weeks of PGA TOUR action.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Another winner!!
That’s right, 7 winners picked over 17 events, a 41% win-pick ratio heading into The Honda Classic this week is giving us ALL THE FEELS.
Neimann was our Mid-Tier pick last week, and he showed up to Riviera on a mission. Coupled with our Top-Tier pick Xander Schauffele (T13), Niemann went on to make some fantasy fire for our DFS players last week.
Embed from Getty Images
In case you missed it, this is what we said about Niemann heading into RIV last week:
With a game that is ideally suited to Riviera, it’s a surprise that Joaquin Niemann’s formline reads a fairly nondescript 43-MC-44 there.
But the Chilean is riding the hot hand right now, having finished T6 at the Farmers and T8 out in Saudi Arabia, and we expect his ability to shape the ball either way off the tee to finally yield a better return in the Pacific Palisades.
Niemann’s ball striking was in particular fine fettle around Torrey Pines, and as a solid enough chipper/scrambler we can hope for more from the world number 32 this week.
Honda Classic Field
With the immediate switch from West to East, few of the bug guns that took to Riviera have decided to make the trip to Palm Beach, Florida this week.
Brooks Koepka is the most eye-catching name in the field, while the likes of Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen and Tommy Fleetwood will bring the class in an otherwise fairly weak field.
Former Honda Classic victors Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler and Keith Mitchell are in the house, metaphorically speaking, as is defending champion Matt Jones.
As mentioned, Niemann will look to go back-to-back while Nicolai Hojgaard, a recent winner on the DP World Tour, will be hoping to cash in on his recent form as he makes his PGA TOUR debut.
This Week’s Course Preview
Originally opened in 1981, the Champion course at PGA National has hosted the PGA Championship and a Ryder Cup, so you know the complexity that can be foisted upon the players.
Originally designed by Tom and George Fazio, Jack Nicklaus got his hands on the blueprints – and $4 million of development money – in 2002, and he set about overhauling the whole layout….introducing the three-hole stretch now known as the ‘Bear Trap’.
Embed from Getty Images
Measuring 7,158 yards for its Par 70, PGA National is something of a haven for fans of water hazards – they are in play on 15 holes, and with more than 60 bunkers it’s no shock to learn that this track features an above-average ‘penalty rating’ for those erring offline with their drives or approach play.
It’s funny to note that the fairways are of an average width and the fastish Bermuda greens are above-average in size, and yet GIR numbers tend to be quite low. There’s two factors behind that – the fierce wind that tends to blow in this part of Florida, and the fact that the greens are elevated and hard to hold at times.
The Honda Classic may be won or lost on Sunday through the Bear Trap. The fifteenth is an island green Par 3 that tends to feature a swirling wind, sixteen is a doglegging Par 4 that twists at almost 90 degrees and leaves a lengthy approach over water, while the seventeenth is a Par 3 featuring a green that measures just 30ft wide.
While he’s an amiable sort of chap normally, Nicklaus was clearly in a foul mood when he re-modelled PGA National.
Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL
You can almost cut and paste the weather forecast from one year to the next in Palm Beach each February.
It’s warm – pleasantly so at 80˚F throughout the four days, sunny and with minimal chance of rain.
But the key is the wind, and the breeze could reach 18 mph or higher on Thursday – a considerable foe when playing a golf course with plenty of hazards. It is expected to die down to around 14 mph from Friday onwards.
Last Year’s Results from The Honda Classic
Matt Jones took a Niemann-esque route to victory here 12 months ago.
In the opening round, he fired a round of 61 – the joint-best in PGA National history. Naturally, the rest of the field were playing catch-up from there on in, and while the Aussie fluffed his line somewhat with a middle 36 of 70-69, nobody was able to really launch a sustained challenge.
Brandon Hagy shot 76 and Denny McCarthy 74 on Saturday to harm their chances, and with Jones playing Sunday in a steady-as-she-goes 68, he maintained a five-shot gap over the field to record the most comfortable of PGA TOUR victories.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Honda Classic this Week
What’s interesting about this week’s slate is that we know how PGA National will play (i.e. tough), we know who can prevail in such conditions and who will struggle, and we also know that – despite being a full field event – there’s plenty of guys we won’t be touching with a bargepole. So, the Honda Classic is prime daily fantasy territory, right?
- PGA $75k Long Drive: We’re opting for a diverse portfolio of contests this week, but there’s leverage in a single-entry game given that there’s not a huge stack of players in this field that appeal. We’ll take our key six players and try and win the $7.5k jackpot in this 833-team contest.
- PGA $300k Drive the Green: Of course, weak field events mean that – more often than not – we have to complete our drafts with inconsistent players. So, multi-entry is welcomed so we can rotate our picks, and to that end this $5 entry game seems a smart play given the range of consolation prizes and $50k bounty on offer.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Honda Classic
With danger lurking around every corner, PGA National lends itself to a slightly different strategy for daily fantasy gamers.
Ordinarily, you’re looking for those that can go on long birdie streaks and rack up plenty of points. But this week, there are fewer birdies around, and so the biggest edge is trying to back those that aren’t going to have a terrible week being too attacking off the tee and on approach.
The lowest winning score here has been -13 in the past five years, and with the wind up we don’t necessarily expect an improvement on that in 2022. These greens are hard to find – just eight of the top twelve on the leaderboard 12 months ago posted GIR numbers of 70% or higher.
So the emphasis is on tee-to-green solidity, scrambling and making rescue chips and putts to keep bogeys off the card – like we say, pretty different from how it’s been recently.
Our best advice is to take this mindset and run with it….you might be surprised by some of the picks we make or the shortlist you draw up independently, but it really is just one of those rare weeks on the PGA TOUR.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Honda Classic
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Honda Classic
Top Tier Pick #1:
Billy Horschel (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 94.7, GPFP: 79.55 Salary: $9,600)
Of those at the top of the salary slate this week, only Sungjae Im possesses much appeal. The Korean is in good form and clearly likes it at PGA National, but his numbers last week (he ranked 57th for SG: Tee-to-Green) aren’t exactly what we were hoping for as a lead-in contribution.
The form of messrs Koepka, Oosthuizen, Berger and co can be questioned, Tommy Fleetwood simply doesn’t win often enough and you wonder how much last week’s endeavors will have taken out of Niemann – it can be hard work leading from wire-to-wire both physically and emotionally.
All of which leads us to Billy Horschel, who is also in good form and who has a nice record at PGA National. We backed the Floridan amongst our sleeper picks at the Phoenix Open, which shouldn’t really suit his game given that iron play is so crucial at Scottsdale. But he did us proud with a T6 return, and at a venue this week that is more suiting to his scrambling game, we can expect even more from him.
Horschel has two top-10s and a T16 within his last five trips to PGA National, and that bodes very nicely indeed.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 14th
- Scrambling – 16th
- Greens in Regulation – 18th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 73.25, GPFP: 58.52 Salary: $9,100)
As a former winner at PGA National, Keith Mitchell’s credentials at this layout require no further explanation – this year, he heads to the Honda Classic in sublime form too.
Mitchell has twice been flagged by our in-house ball-striking metric in recent weeks at Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale, where he finished T12 and T10 respectively.
A major tee-to-green improvement of late, allied to the fact we know he is something of a putting specialist on Bermuda greens, means we can have complete confidence in Mitchell to thrive in what is a fairly poor field.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th
- Scoring Average – 19th
- Bogey Avoidance – 26th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Cameron Young (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 74.9, GPFP: 93.61 Salary: $8,600)
The formline of Cameron Young is pretty hard to ignore, and 60/1 is more than fair about a player that won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020-21.
Going back to the American Express, he finished T40 but only after a final round of 77 rather hurt his hopes. He followed with T20 and T26 at the Farmers and the Phoenix Open, and Young scored -17 at Riviera last time out – a tally that would have won each of the last four editions of that tournament.
Young’s game is based almost exclusively on power off the tee and a reliable putting stroke, but his iron play was top drawer at Riviera and so we have to hope and assume that will continue at PGA National as well.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 8th
- Scrambling – 39th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 46th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 75.9, GPFP: 60.75 Salary: $7,700)
Grinding out a score is the order of the day at PGA National, and so the skillset of players like K.H. Lee becomes of greater interest.
The Korean is rock solid off the tee and is able to scramble and chip his way to par more often than not – he ranks 24th on TOUR for Bogey Avoidance.
Lee has made seven consecutive cuts in traditional strokeplay events, and while he will be disappointed not to have improved on just three top-25 finishes, the Korean doesn’t have the birdie power of many others on TOUR – hence why we he is unable to compete week in, week out with the best in the business.
But in a weak field and at a venue where his natural game gives him an edge (Lee has two top-10s here), the former Byron Nelson champion has to command respect.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 18th
- Bogey Avoidance – 24th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 39th
Low-Tier Pick:
Greyson Sigg (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 63.0, GPFP: 50.37 Salary: $7,400)
Like so many former Georgia Bulldogs, Greyson Sigg’s game is built around tenacity and avoiding errors by being too ambitious off the tee and on approach.
It’s not the style of play that sees TV cameras flocking to follow you around the course, but Sigg’s return on the PGA TOUR this season includes eight weekends made from eleven starts.
He won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour during 2020-21, so he is capable of taking care of business when in contention, and while others will be penalized at PGA National for errant play Sigg can take advantage.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 31st
- Bogey Avoidance – 35th
- Greens in Regulation – 54th
Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic
Lucas Glover (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 74.4 GPFP: 59.51 Salary: $7,400)
Talk about boom or bust.
In nine trips to PGA National, Lucas Glover has missed four cuts and recorded five finishes of T21 or better – including a pair top-fives.
We have to expect that 2022 will be one of his good efforts at this track based upon what he has delivered so far this season. Glover ranks eighth in the PGA TOUR’s Ball Striking stat, and while that alone won’t win you golf tournaments, it’s certainly a decent place to start at a layout where staying out of trouble is key.
A noted scorer on Par 4 holes, Glover has an excellent track record on Par 70 layouts with Bermuda greens, so if his flat stick behaves we can hope for another strong showing at PGA National.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 4th
- Ball Striking – 8th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 39th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic
Mark Hubbard (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 68.0, GPFP: 54.40 Salary: $6,900)
Sometimes, a player that loses their main tour card heads off to the Korn Ferry, regroups and finds their best form.
That seems to be the way for Mark Hubbard, who finished two strokes shy of Byeong Hun-An at the Suncoast Classic at the weekend, posting a round of 62 along the way.
Hubbard has played pretty well in some of his PGA TOUR top-up appearances this term, and he’s another who performs his best when grinding out scores is the order of the day – he was T11 in this event back in 2020 in some tough conditions.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 6th
- Bogey Avoidance – 13th
- Scoring Average – 43rd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Honda Classic with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
