Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2022 Honda Classic

2022 Honda Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

In the end, Joaquin Niemann made a straightforward victory at the Genesis Invitational look very difficult.

It’s hard winning wire to wire – especially when you have some of the world’s best players in your rear view mirror, and while some have chosen to focus on the negatives of the Chilean’s stagnation over the weekend at Riviera, perhaps instead we should admire the skill that opened up a seven-shot lead at one point, and the resolve to close out the win when he want 16 consecutive holes without breaking par over the weekend. 

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Ignore what you might read – this was a world-class performance from a player growing into a member of the game’s elite.

If Niemann thought winning at Riviera was hard, he might be in for an altogether different test if he gets into contention at PGA National this week – home of the Honda Classic.

Yep, the PGA TOUR has swung from west to east, and the Florida jaunt kicks off with a trip to a layout that has formerly hosted a major and a Ryder Cup – it’s going to take a good old grind to take care of business this week, and especially so given the rather wind-heavy forecast.

Originally designed by Tom and George Fazio, PGA National in the heart of Palm Beach was given a sizable overhaul by Jack Nicklaus – the main fruits of which are the devilish ‘Bear Trap’ holes of 15 (island green Par 3), 16 (90-degree dogleg with forced carry approach) and 17 (postage stamp green measuring just 30ft wide).

With water in play on 15 holes, 67 bunkers and elevated greens, anybody that thought this was a nice stroll in the Florida sun is greatly mistaken.

Matt Jones won here with -12 a year ago, but he was the only player at double digits under par, and that stingy scoring has been the trademark of this stretch. The players should value par like their lives depend on it this week, and as such it’s no surprise that a different skillset is required for success at PGA National compared to other TOUR stop-offs.

It just feels like a set-up ripe for a long-odds outsider to prevail, and we’ve already seen with Jones (80/1), Keith Mitchell (225/1!) and Padraig Harrington (300/1!!) in recent years. So with much anticipation, here’s our sleeper shortlist for the 2022 Honda Classic.

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2022 Honda Classic Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mito Pereira – 50/1 – Given how much buzz there is about Mito Pereira’s game, there’s a chance that by the time you are reading this those odds of 50/1 will have vanished.

The Chilean will have watched with interest as countryman Joaquin Niemann took the spoils at the Genesis, and he will be hoping to open his title account on the PGA TOUR this week.

Having set up home in Florida, this is a home game for Pereira, whose T15 at Riviera goes with a catalogue of top-30 showings this term.

A three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020-21, Pereira is an outstanding ball striker whose putting has improved so much of late that he has all of the ingredients to become a senior tour champion as well.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout – 55/1 – Ranking 51st on TOUR for Bogey Avoidance and 53rd for Scoring Average, you get a feel for Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s game right out of the gate.

The South African has the grinding game that tends to work at PGA National, and while a missed cut at Riviera last week hurts his forward momentum, Bezuidenhout can bounce back in much more agreeable conditions this time around.

A winner at Valderrama, where plodding your way around is the order of the day, Bezuidenhout is a solid wind player who looks primed to take the step up from European Tour winner to PGA TOUR contender.

Denny McCarthy – 60/1 – When we plug the stats we expect to be of paramount importance into our model, it spits out the name of Denny McCarthy this week – and that’s before we even mention his putting prowess on Bermuda greens.

His tee-to-green improvement has been considerable this season, and he remains an excellent scrambler that is adept at avoiding bogeys and keeping his scorecard clean.

McCarthy has been rewarded for his efforts with six top-25 finishes out of eleven starts, with two top-10s, a T11 and a T12 in amongst that number. Having finished T3 here 12 months ago, we simply have to expect another strong effort given the progression in his game lately.

Jhonattan Vegas – 60/1 – Whilst a T55 finish at Riviera hardly gets the juices flowing, it was notable that Jhonattan Vegas ranked inside the top-20 for SG: Tee-to-Green – an ice-cold putter preventing anything like a charge up the leaderboard.

But the Venezuelan won’t mind a switch to slick Bermuda greens this week, with many of his best results on the PGA TOUR coming on the surface and, particularly, in the east of the country.

Vegas has made five consecutive cuts at PGA National with a best of T4, and he will be hoping to build on a steady set of recent performances that included a T12 return at the RSM Classic.

Chris Kirk – 90/1 – With a game that seems finely honed for PGA National, it’s something of a surprise that Chris Kirk doesn’t have a better record here.

His last four starts at the track have yielded 25-MC-MC-33, although it should be said that his game has been in the doldrums for much of that time given his off-course battle with alcoholism. 

Back now and producing some excellent numbers once more, Kirk bounded back to form with a T14 finish at the Phoenix Open, and now at a venue that puts a premium on grinding out a score – rather than an all-out birdie fest – Kirk’s neat and tidy play should come in to its own.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Honda Classic here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.50%” bar_text=”3 out of 85 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “17.60%” bar_text=”15 out of 85 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”23.52%” bar_text=”20 out of 85 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”1 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”1 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”56.47%” bar_text=”48 out of 85 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram