Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview
A week after Joaquin Niemann burst into a mid-tournament lead and, by hook or by crook, got the job done at the Genesis Invitational, Daniel Berger had the perfect chance to replicate the Chilean at the Honda Classic.
He held a five-shot lead heading into the final round at PGA National, but quickly watched that evaporate on Sunday afternoon with a double bogey at the third hole and subsequent red numbers at five and six.
By the time he’d bogeyed the 12th, Berger was – by and large – out of contention, and Shane Lowry looked the most likely to strike. And yet he didn’t make a single birdie after the eleventh, and striding through the gaping door of opportunity came Sepp Straka.
The Austrian by way of Georgia birdied three of his last five holes and played the infamous Bear Trap in -1 – making a mockery of his status as a PGA TOUR maiden. Lowry’s inability to birdie the Par 5 last meant that Straka, whether he expected it or not, was crowned champion under a cataclysmic Florida rain shower.
He joins Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge and Luke List in the first-time winner’s club, although it would be a considerable surprise if they welcome a new member this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational given the quality of the field.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Arnold Palmer Invitational Field
Despite the withdrawal of defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, it’s a star-studded field that will convene in Florida.
World number one Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy lead the way, and they will be joined by Hideki Matsuyama, Phoenix Open champion Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland.
The likes of Sam Burns, Paul Casey and Sungjae Im only serve to beef up the quality of the field, which also includes recent API champions Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman and Jason Day.
This Week’s Course Preview
The metaphorical baby of Arnold Palmer himself, the Bay Hill Club has become one of the most treasured stop-offs on the PGA TOUR.
The standout are the array of Par 3s, which have a mammoth average length of more than 210 yards – not for the faint hearted.
There’s four Par 5s to this 7,454 yard Par 72 as well, and the thick trees and doglegging fairways only serve to add to the complexity of a layout that has more than 80 bunkers and water in play on nine holes.
With some sticky rough, super-fast Bermuda greens and the likelihood of a strong Floridan breeze, Bay Hill can become a devilish layout at the best of times – Hatton won here with a score of -4 just two years ago.
This is a long old slog and a tough old test – three of the last four winners of this event are major champions, which is no coincidence.
Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL
It’s your typical March week in Florida.
Almost wall-to-wall sunshine is expected throughout the four days, and with the temperatures reaching 88˚F it will feel very pleasant indeed.
But look out for the wind. According to the early forecast, the breeze could blow at 15mph or more over the weekend – that could become a significant obstacle for any player dreaming of listing the trophy come Sunday evening.
Last Year’s Results from The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bryson, as only Bryson can, took the playbook at Bay Hill, ripped it to shreds and then set fire to the remnants of what constitutes classic golf befitting the Arnold Palmer name.
Hey, if it works who gives a fig. Bryson average 321 yards off the tee and found just over half the fairways in regulation, but his recovery game was in fine order and he ended up ranking fourth for GIR chipping out of the rough stuff.
All hell broke loose in demanding conditions on the Sunday. Nobody broke 70 – the first time that had happened in more than 30 years, and in the end Bryson’s 71 was good enough to pip veteran Lee Westwood to the winning line.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week
It’s a tough week for the players and a tough week for daily fantasy gamers too, but we can dig our heels in and even if Bay Hill bites, look to cash some tidy wins with some solid roster selections and sensible staking.
- PGA $1M Pitch & Putt: Well, why not? This is your $20 lottery ticket, but there’s $250k to the winner and stacks of consolation payouts too. There’s multi entry too if you have a sizable budget to work with.
- PGA $350k Drive the Green: If you do have a spin or two at the Pitch & Putt, you’ll want to try and cover your entry fee with wins elsewhere. And this contest fits the bill, with $5 multi-entry and lots of prizes to be won – including the $50k jackpot.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Arnold Palmer Invitational
It’s fair to say that Bryson shattered perceptions 12 months ago.
Nobody had gone for such a bomb and pitch approach here before – such a risky strategy given the shot shaping required off the tee. But DeChambeau cut off corners and decided that, well, the quickest route between two points is a straight line.
Bryson also snapped a run of five years without a single American winner, although it’s hard to figure out why the Europeans and Aussies have enjoyed such prominence here. After all, Bay Hill is a treacherous parklands layout that has an almost Augusta-like look to it.
Interestingly, many of the tee shots at Arnold Palmer’s body of work are shaped right to left, which helps to extend the Masters analogy. Fans of such things may also note Innisbrook, the home of the Valspar Championship, which also boasts doglegging fairways, slick Bermuda greens and that fierce Florida breeze.
This is a layout that tests all-round golf, and with the wind up it will test the recovery and scrambling skills of some of the very best in the business. Did you think PGA National was tough last week? Wait until you see what Bay Hill has got up its sleeve….
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 103.8, GPFP: 131.76 Salary: $11,100)
Bay Hill is very much a Rory McIlroy golf course, and he will surely be desperate to show his class on a favorite hunting ground.
He’s now down to five in the OWGR, but McIlroy is – perhaps – the best in the world on his day, and at a venue where he has recorded five straight top-10 finishes, including a win in 2018, we have to expect him to showcase those abilities.
Unusually quiet so far this season, the Irishman has only played two strokeplay events on the PGA TOUR in 2021-22 – hence the absence of stats below – but he won one of those (October’s CJ Cup) and finished T10 at the Genesis a couple of weeks ago.
At this stage of his career, Rory is not somebody that needs to be playing week in, week out to find his best form, and he looks the pick of the bunch for our money.
Key Stats:
- N/A
Top Tier Pick #2:
Will Zalatoris (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 74.3, GPFP: 59.45 Salary: $9,400)
It’s long been held that there’s something of a link between Bay Hill and Augusta, and that bodes nicely given that Will Zalatoris was a smidgen away from beating Hideki Matsuyama to the green jacket last year.
An outstanding tee-to-green merchant, Zalatoris will get full benefit for his power at Bay Hill and can hit bombs off the tee – as Bryson did 12 months ago – or club down and find some fairways….although accuracy off the peg has not always been a pre-requisite here.
T10 here a year ago, the youngster perhaps fits the profile of a player that can thrive on these types of doglegging, largely right-to-left layouts, and he seems destined to win on TOUR sooner rather than later.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Par 3 Scoring Average – 3rd
- Greens in Regulation – 9th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Maverick McNealy (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 82.9, GPFP: 66.28 Salary: $7,800)
Like that other young Californian Zalatoris, Maverick McNealy is knocking on the door of his maiden PGA TOUR crown.
Much of his best work has come at wide open, Links style layouts, but a T7 return from Riviera a couple of weeks ago showed McNealy’s versatility at tree lined, doglegging layouts.
An excellent long-range iron game will form the basis of his effort at Bay Hill, but McNealy is no mug on the greens either….he’s ready to clinch that maiden title.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 10th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 24th
- SG: Putting – 27th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chris Kirk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 83.13 Salary: $7,500)
We figured that Chris Kirk would play well at PGA National last week and he did, although that final round stung somewhat.
The 36-year-old shows up well in modelling for Bay Hill too, and that’s before we consider a record at the layout which reads 8-15-13-MC-12.
Ranking 18th on TOUR this term for SG: Tee-to-Green, Kirk has been putting somewhat better of late and will enjoy the Bermuda greens presented to him at Bay Hill.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 18th
- Par 3 Scoring Average – 18th
- Total Driving – 36th
Low-Tier Pick:
Sebastian Munoz (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 66.3, GPFP: 53.03 Salary: $7,000)
Talk about ball striking form.
Sebastian Munoz ranked inside the top-10 for our adjusted ball-striking metric at both the Phoenix Open and the Genesis, and so he couldn’t be in better shape heading to Bay Hill.
His record at the venue is fairly nondescript, but he has a top-20 to his name at Augusta and so we assume the right-to-left shot shaping required suits the Colombian to a tee.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 49th
- Par 3 Scoring Average – 75th
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 76th
Sleeper Pick for The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Keegan Bradley (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 67.9, GPFP: 84.86 Salary: $7,300)
With seven cuts made from nine starts, but only two top-25 finishes, it’s been a frustrating season for Keegan Bradley.
But he struck the ball really nicely at the Phoenix Open, and he’s another who shapes very nicely for the test at Bay Hill – nine consecutive cuts made, with a T2 here back in 2014 and, you won’t be shocked to learn, a runner’s up spot at Innisbrook to his name too.
Could Bradley finally return a big finish that his form has been threatening?
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 42nd
- Total Driving – 68th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Martin Laird (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 67.2, GPFP: 73.26 Salary: $7,000)
The archetypal nearly man at Bay Hill, Martin Laird is the ideal sleeper proposition this week.
In his nine most recent trips, the Scot has only missed one cut – delivering seven performances in the T25-T50 range.
That’s not the kind of form that gets us hot under the collar, but given that Laird has been playing well of late, we can hope that something in and around the top-20 mark can be achieved this week – not bad for a player at this throwaway salary.
Key Stats:
- Par 3 Scoring Average – 3rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 24th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
