Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Genesis Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Genesis Invitational
Genesis Invitational Fantasy Preview
Anybody studying a sports psychology degree that has to write some kind of thesis as part of their course should look no further than golf playoffs as their source material.
Because there can’t have been many who, after watching Scottie Scheffler ram a five-foot birdie putt wide of the mark on the 72nd hole on Sunday, would have thought he would have prevailed in the ensuing playoff against Patrick Cantlay.
The FedEx Cup champion’s record in extra time stood 3-1, while Scheffler – who must have thought he’d blown his chances of winning the Phoenix Open with his late blunder – was yet to get off the mark.
But we love sport for the sheer fact that it is unpredictable, and after sharing the first two extra holes it was Scheffler who would break the stalemate with a birdie at the replayed 18th hole to finally get his first PGA TOUR win on the board.
Evidently, Scheffler is a world-class talent that will no doubt go on to win multiple times on TOUR. But for now, he can breathe a sigh of relief and revel in his triumph – the third week in a row, incidentally, that a maiden has prevailed following the victories of Luke List and Tom Hoge at the Farmers and Pebble Beach respectively.
Could we see a fourth first-time winner in a row at this week’s Genesis Invitational?
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Winner Winner! With Scottie Scheffler as a Top Tier pick last week, we have now selected our sixth winner out of just sixteen events this season.
What an epic playoff finish! Here’s what we said about Scottie last week:
While the PGA TOUR maiden is yet to come up trumps for sports bettors, Scottie Scheffler routinely comes up with the goods for daily fantasy gamers.
He ranks inside the top-30 for Par 3, 4 and 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, which shows the versatility in his game and that relentless ability to find greens in good order.
Time will tell otherwise, but Scheffler looks most likely to prevail in birdie-fests on Bermuda greens, and his wind play ability and comfort on fast-paced greens make him a likely candidate for success at TPC Scottsdale – he was T7 here in 2021.
Genesis Invitational Field
It has long been this way, but The Genesis Invitational has the feel of a major about it.
All of the world’s top 10 are in town, and the names at the top of the list just roll off the tongue – Rahm, Morikawa, McIlroy, Matsuyama, Cantlay, Thomas, Johnson (D), Schauffele and so on.
Scheffler and his old Texan mucker, Jordan Spieth, are also teeing it up, as are defending champion Max Homa, 2020 winner Adam Scott and three-time Genesis victor Bubba Watson.
The invitational list is set at 120, with Jae-kyeoung Lee – who won South Korea’s Genesis Championship – and standout APGA TOUR member Aaron Beverly in amongst it.
This Week’s Course Preview
We are now just seven years shy of Riviera Country Club’s centenary as the host of The Genesis Invitational .
It’s an extraordinary achievement, and goes to show that length isn’t the only defense for a golf course – even though it was built 100 years ago, Riviera does not yield to the world’s best like many other contemporary tracks do.
Designed by George C. Thomas, the layout has been tinkered with by the Crenshaw & Coore team and by Tom Fazio, but the general feel is the same as it has always been.
The key are the tree-lined doglegging fairways, which ask the players to be able to shape the ball both ways in order to find the best line into the fairway.
And you do want to be hitting the short stuff, because the Kikuyu rough can be pretty gnarly – especially when the weather has been wet and cool to prevent it from ‘burning’ off, as is the case in the Pacific Palisades right now.
Hitting out of juicy rough is never fun, but when you’re aiming at smallish greens and with a Cali wind blowing at you the task becomes even harder – Homa won here last year despite hitting just 63.5% of GIR, which incredibly saw him sit tied third for that stat.
With tight fairways and plenty of smart bunkering, it’s no wonder that Riviera is tougher than the average PGA TOUR course.
Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA
We’re expecting it to be warmish and dry in the Pacific Palisades in the second half of this week.
But before then, there is some rain around in the forecast – how much falls we’ll have to wait and see, but there could be ramifications for the softness of the layout.
That said, temperatures of 70˚F are expected, so it won’t take too long to dry out, while winds that could top 10mph will also help with the drying mission – if not making it any easier for players to hit some GIR.
Last Year’s Results from The Genesis Invitational
Given that this event enjoys a major-quality field, it was something of a surprise that a relative rookie got his hands on the trophy 12 months ago.
Max Homa had won on the PGA TOUR before, but that victory had come more than 18 months prior – the sportsbooks considered him nothing more than a 60/1 jolly.
He’s first visited Riviera as a two-year-old, and so as well as being a home-field game Homa had a sizable backing in his corner – and he would call upon that strength during a final round in which he posted a bogey-free 66….even enduring a lip-out miss on the 72nd hole that would have won it outright.
Sam Burns, well, burned his 54-hole lead, making three bogeys on the back nine to slip out of contention, and that left Tony Finau to book his spot in the playoff with birdies at 16 and 17.
The duo shared the first extra hole after Homa produced a miraculous escape from behind a tree to make par, and he made no mistake on the second as Finau found himself in the sand and out of the contest.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Genesis Invitational this Week
The daily fantasy sites have gone big for The Genesis Invitational , and in amongst the many varied contests if you have a satellite ticket to the MEGA Millionaire game on DK – or are stumping up the $4,444 entry – we salute you! For those on a tighter budget, here’s a couple of contests to try.
- PGA $1.2M Pitch & Putt: Even those of more conservative means can try their luck at a big prize or two this week, with the Pitch & Putt contest offering its winner a $300k bounty from just a $20 entry.
- PGA $200k Medium 8’s: If you can stretch your budget a bit further, this $88 contest offers a top prize of $50k – most crucially, there’s only 2,581 other teams standing in your way.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Genesis Invitational
After reading our course overview section, you’ve probably already come to the conclusion that taming Riviera is a task for those able to grind out winning scores despite making mistakes along the way.
We’ve a penchant for strong drivers of the ball, but don’t get too bogged down in the stats –fairways will be missed, and it’s those that can best extricate themselves out of trouble by finding the ‘right misses’ that will succeed.
Riviera plays as a long old stretch, with five of the Par 4s measuring topside of 450 yards – there’s just three Par 5s in the Par 71 total – and so hitting long irons consistently well is another feature of note.
Note the switch to Poa Annua greens, and look out for those that can hit the highest GIR numbers – be it through exceptional iron play from the rough or scrambling from around the greens – and then make some putts into the bargain.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Genesis Invitational
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Genesis Invitational
Top Tier Pick #1:
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 99.7, GPFP: 79.77 Salary: $9,900)
Nobody struck the ball better than Xander Schauffele at TPC Scottsdale, and a cold putter was perhaps the only difference separating him from a spot in that play-off and – as he did – finishing one stroke adrift.
Pleasingly, his putting stats got better throughout the four days, and the Californian now switches to his ‘home’ Poa Annua greens, so further improvement is expected.
A formline of 15-23-15-9 hints at some fondness for Riviera, and Schauffele has all of the weapons in his bag to improve on that record considerably this week.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 10th
- Birdie Average – 15th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 24th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 101.0, GPFP: 114.25 Salary: $9,300)
We had considered Brooks Koepka in this slot, but with his chipping game in a state of disarray at Scottsdale we thought it best to switch to Hideki Matsuyama.
It was no surprise that the Japanese ace played well at Scottsdale – he invariably does, it’s just that his putting once again showed some reliability. For years, it seemed like the flat stick would hold Matsuyama back and prevent him from winning the glut of trophies that his ball-striking talent deserved. But these days, something seems to have clicked.
With three top-10s and a T11 in seven trips to Riviera, this is clearly a test that suits the eye of the red-hot 29-year-old.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
- Scoring Average – 12th
- Scrambling – 17th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 73.7, GPFP: 58.95 Salary: $7,800)
With a game that is ideally suited to Riviera, it’s a surprise that Joaquin Niemann’s formline reads a fairly nondescript 43-MC-44 there.
But the Chilean is riding the hot hand right now, having finished T6 at the Farmers and T8 out in Saudi Arabia, and we expect his ability to shape the ball either way off the tee to finally yield a better return in the Pacific Palisades.
Niemann’s ball striking was in particular fine fettle around Torrey Pines, and as a solid enough chipper/scrambler we can hope for more from the world number 32 this week.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 37th
- SG: Around-the Green – 41st
- SG: Approach – 55th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Luke List (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 77.0, GPFP: 61.60 Salary: $7,400)
What a difference a hot putter can make.
Luke List had to wait more than 200 PGA TOUR appearances to break his title drought, but he found something on the Poa Annua greens of Torrey Pines to hoist his maiden trophy at the Farmers Insurance Open.
In ranking 23rd for SG: tee-to-Green and 66th for SG: Putting at Scottsdale last week, List was somewhat up to his old tricks, but we have every confidence that a return to Poa greens at Riviera – where he has four top-30s in six visits – can see a swift uptick in progress with the flat stick once again.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 13th
- Scoring Average – 17th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 20th
Low-Tier Pick:
Adam Hadwin (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 68.8, GPFP: 74.25 Salary: $7,100)
A disappointing final round of 74 saw Adam Hadwin slip out of the top 10 at the Phoenix Open, but it was yet another event where he showed quality through the bag.
The Canadian ranked 31st for SG: Tee-to-Green and 35th for SG: Putting at Scottsdale, and that is a nice overview of just how good Hadwin is in all departments.
His confidence appears to be returning too, with T26 last week following T16 at Pebble Beach and T25 at the American Express. That’s handy, because he’s made the cut in each of his last seven trips to Riviera with five finishes of T26 or better – this is a course he clearly enjoys.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 24th
- Scrambling – 38th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 43rd
Sleeper Pick for The Genesis Invitational
Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 74.90 Salary: $7,000)
You can trace Jhonattan Vegas’ career back through the years and find that, at any point over the past five years or so, he has been amongst the finest drivers of a golf ball on the PGA TOUR.
Riviera is a golf course that rewards such a skillset, and it’s notable that Vegas also gained +0.84 strokes on the field on Approach at the Farmers Insurance Open.
His putting has also improved since the start of 2022 relative to his previous efforts, and so while Vegas has a mediocre record at Riviera, we believe he heads there this year with more strings to his bow than in recent memory.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
- Greens in Regulation – 35th
- Scoring Average – 41st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Genesis Invitational
Troy Merritt (Odds: 160/1, FPPG: 72.9, GPFP: 73.67 Salary: $6,900)
There’s been a notable uptick in Troy Merritt’s performances lately, and the cause is no secret.
He is, quite simply, hitting the ball better – gaining strokes on the field off-the-tee and on-approach in four of his last five shot-tracker enabled tournaments played.
Given that Merritt is already an above-average putter, the combination is exciting indeed, and T4 at Pebble Beach and T22 at the RSM Classic are just two examples of the fruits of his labor.
Key Stats:
- N/A
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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