Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open

2022 WM Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

There are those people in life who suffer scar tissue, be it physical or psychological, and they hide themselves away.

And yet, there are those who bear their scars with pride and, where relevant, use them as fuel.

Tom Hoge falls into the latter camp, it turns out, after turning his disappointment at failing to convert his place in the final group at the American Express into victory into something positive just up the coast at Pebble Beach.

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The 32-year-old has had to wait more than a decade for his maiden PGA TOUR title, but it must have felt so sweet to avenge the frustration of PGA West with a stellar final round at Pebble Beach.

The fact that he did it despite making a double-bogey at the fifth, before somersaulting a leaderboard that contained Cantlay and Spieth at the top deep into the business end, will have pleased Hoge and his backers no end – four birdies on the back nine showing that he might just have learned lessons from his AM-EX ordeal in how to deal with the pressure of contending.

The West Coast swing heads inland to Arizona this week for the Phoenix Open, before heading back towards the coast for the conclusion of this mini-juncture of the TOUR at the Genesis Invitational next week.

A high-quality field is forming for the trip to TPC Scottsdale, a track that is a favorite with the players and spectators alike – although not always with bettors, as their hopes of a winning ticket fade at the red-hot sixteenth with its stadium atmosphere, the risk-and-reward drivable Par 4 seventeenth or the knee-shaking drive over water at the eighteenth. 

Jon Rahm will be fancied by many to tame the beast – he’s the sportsbook favorite, while the likes of Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth and two-time Scottsdale winners Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka will also enter calculations.

The desert-feel to Scottsdale will be complimented by a driving wind this week, and with more than 60 bunkers and some sizable water features there are hazards to be found on the real estate.

But the winning score here is routinely late teens under par, and as long as you stay out of trouble off the tee – and hit some laser-like irons into smooth Bermuda greens (that have been overseeded with Poa) there are ample birdie opportunities to be found on this 7,266 yard Par 71 layout.

But who will amass a winning score? That’s the question for our Waste Management Phoenix Open 2022 sleeper report….

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2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Seamus Power – 55/1 – It’s in the nature of some bettors to give up on players that appear to trip themselves up in contention, and Seamus Power is in that category.

After streaking into a five-shot lead at the AT&T Pebble Beach at the halfway stage, you could barely score odds of even money on the Irishman adding a second PGA TOUR title to his collection.

He faceplanted big time over the weekend, but you have to keep knocking on the door and Power – with an exceptional five straight T15 finishes or better on the TOUR – is very much doing that. His all-round game – ranking 48th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 39th for SG: Putting – is perfect for Scottsdale.

Billy Horschel – 60/1 – There’s a curiosity to Billy Horschel’s record at TPC Scottsdale – he’s made seven straight cuts here, but only recorded a single top-20 finish (T9 in 2020).

But Billy-Ho looks to be a different animal at the moment, with finishes of 11-36-23 in 2022 so far, and he’s another who can thrive in the desert.

He’ll drive well, scramble well and putt well, as he routinely does on Bermuda greens that have that Poa overseeding, and the only question mark is over his iron game.

It’s true that Horschel’s approaches from 100 yards are not the best, but in that specific 150-175 yard category he seems to find something – he ranks 32nd on TOUR for Birdie or Better % from that range. It just seems to suit Horschel’s eye, and enables him to outperform an otherwise below-par iron play baseline.

Harris English – 66/1 – It’s not been a stellar start to the year for Harris English, but at a layout where quality ball-striking comes to the fore he has to be of interest at 66/1.

At his best, English has a rock-solid tee-to-green game and an elite touch on the greens – evidenced by his two wins during the 2020-21 season.

And he seems to like it at TPC Scottsdale, where he hasn’t missed a trip in a decade. In that time, English has delivered two top-10s, a T15 and a T16 return. If his game clicks, he will look a bet of supreme value at these odds.

Andrew Putnam – 100/1 – With a T7 finish in his last trip to TPC Scottsdale and T6 in his last outing at the AT&T Pebble Beach, Andrew Putnam is a play that requires little thought this week.

But this more than just a paint-by-numbers pick. Putnam has found some quality in his approach game of late, and given that he’s always been a reliable putter the possibilities are exciting to say the least.

In 12 rounds since the start of 2022, Putnam has carded nine rounds of 68 or better, and while some will argue that more context is required to those stats, it’s almost impossible to argue that the 33-year-old is trending very nicely right now.

Brendon Todd – 150/1 – There has been a couple of occasions in which Brendon Todd has flashed on our radar lately.

The first was when he found that irrepressible putting stroke at Waialae, stroking the ball with supreme control on the Bermuda greens there.

And then Todd delivered a sublime tee-to-green showing at the AT&T Pebble Beach, aided – most importantly – by class with irons in hand.

Another who thrives in the golden 150-175 yard mark, Todd can ride the boosted length of Scottsdale’s altitude and improve on a T22 showing here 12 months ago.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Waste Management Phoenix Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”4.00%” bar_text=”3 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “18.67%” bar_text=”14 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”25.33%” bar_text=”19 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”6.67%” bar_text=”1 out of 15 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”6.67%” bar_text=”1 out of 15 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”56.99%” bar_text=”42 out of 75 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram