Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview
The age of the long-delayed maiden champion is upon us.
A week after Luke List ended a 206-event drought to finally end his PGA TOUR title hoodoo, Tom Hoge made a mockery of a decade-long wait to get his hands on a trophy.
Like List, Hoge is a tremendous striker of the golf ball that struggles on the greens, but Poa Annua seems to bring something out of these suspect flat-stick shufflers and turns them into bona fide champions.
The 32-year-old is also testament to the golfing law that states if you knock on the door enough times, somebody will let you in. He perhaps should have won at the American Express a matter of weeks ago, but he took the lesson on the chin, added it to his collection of nine top-five finishes on the PGA TOUR and set about going one better at Pebble Beach.
Heading into Sunday’s back nine, five players were locked on -16 including proven champs like Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth. But Hoge was not to be denied, and stamped his authority on proceedings with four birdies on the way home to win by two from Spieth.
There’s a slight change of scene this week, with the PGA TOUR heading inland to Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open at the much-loved TPC Scottsdale.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our horse pick was Patrick Cantlay; a guy we can see winning a handful of tournaments this year.
PC finished T4 at Pebble Beach while Joel Dahmen, another guy on our team last week, finished in 6th.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Field
This tournament has a habit of attracting a stellar field, and 2022’s renewal is no different.
Jon Rahm has finished no lower than T16 here in six trips, but he still awaits his first victory at Scottsdale in a field stacked with them – Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler just some of the classy operators that have prevailed here.
Cantlay and Spieth will go in again, while the presence of Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Louis Oosthuizen only adds to the sense of quality.
Course horses Daniel Berger and Bubba Watson will also be looking forward to a return to a happy hunting ground that remains a favorite of many on the TOUR.
This Week’s Course Preview
First opened in 1986, TPC Scottsdale was announced as the host of the Phoenix Open a year later – it has remained at the venue ever since.
Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, Scottsdale bears all the hallmarks of a golf course that was the result of an uninspired design meeting….before Weiskopf, Morrish and co went off for a ‘relaxed’ lunch, went back to the office and came up with a masterful back nine.
The fifteenth is a Par 5 that can be tackled in two – but there’s plenty of risk waiting for those errant off the tee, and the sixteenth if the infamous coliseum-style grandstand Par 3….set to be restored to full patron capacity in 2022.
Seventeen is so exciting – a drivable Par 4 but where water lurks left and sand right, while the eighteenth features a forced drive over an expansive body of water, which frames the left-hand side of the fairway and green.
A desert course at an altitude of around 1,500’ above sea level, this 7,266 yard Par 71 boasts some pretty deep bunkers and water in-play on six holes. But with a winning score that is usually in the late teens under par, it’s clear that hay is to be made under the Arizonan sunshine.
Note too that we will switch from Poa Annua greens to Bermuda, although these have been overseeded with Poa and Rye. The object is to create pure, fast-running putting surfaces, and that is something that has historically been achieved at TPC Scottsdale.
Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ
We’re in the desert so, you know, it’s a kind of a desert-y weather forecast.
It looks like wall-to-wall sunshine from Thursday through to Sunday, and with the predictions suggesting a 0% chance of precipitation, the players had better pack their sunscreen.
Temperatures could reach 80˚F, although it’s worth noting the disparity between early and late tee times – the early starters could be sent out in rather less appealing 50˚F.
As for the wind, the breeze could reach speeds of 11 mph or higher, so that will certainly be fast enough to catch the attention of the players.
Last Year’s Results from the Waste Management Phoenix Open
A tale of high class and sheer bloody-mindedness, Brooks Koepka captured his second Phoenix Open title 12 months ago.
He entered the final round some five shots shy of 54-hole leaders Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele, but managed to overturn the deficit with three consecutive birdies through 13-15, a masterful eagle at the risk-reward seventeenth and a clutch par at the last.
Brooks prevailed by one shot from Schauffele and K.H. Lee, while Spieth was left to consider what might have been having played his opening nine in the final round in +2.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open this Week
With a long history of action at TPC Scottsdale and a clear profile of what makes for a successful line-up in this event, we can confidently cast aside the shackles and go to war with multiple teams this week.
- PGA $200k Drive the Green: At $5 per entry, we can assemble a few different line-ups for this contest without breaking the bank, and it could be a savvy investment given the huge $25k top prize.
- PGA $800k Pitch and Putt: If you have the resources to scale up this week, you can make a handful of entries into this $20 contest, get more skin in the game and try to walk away with the $200k jackpot – as ever, the top 20% of players net a meaningful prize.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
While there’s no set pattern for success at TPC Scottsdale, there are a couple of attributes that many of the winners here share.
For a long time it was assumed that long, straight hitting off the tee was key, but last year’s hosting suggested otherwise – Jordan Spieth finished T4 despite hitting just 41% of fairways, and J.T. Poston ranked tied-second for birdies made having hit just 48% accurate tee shots.
Length could be considered an advantage, but don’t forget that altitude tends to send the ball farther anyway – hence how Steve Stricker, aiming to become the oldest PGA TOUR winner in history here 12 months ago, was able to record an average driving distance of over 300 yards.
But we must point you in the direction of Strokes Gained: Approach – Koepka, Matsuyama, Fowler, Simpson and Woodland also boast star power to burn in this category when at their best, and it’s this department, and particularly the 150-175 yard range, where the edge can be found.
The players have Bermuda greens to contend with this week, but remember that these have been overseeded with Poa, so there will be a pureness to them and perhaps a sense of neutrality – good putters of the ball will thrive, as ever.
Those with success in the wind and in desert-like conditions also enter the thinking this week, and so there’s plenty of ammunition to work with when building our rosters.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jordan Spieth (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 80.7, GPFP: 64.56 Salary: $9,900)
Another week, another golf tournament set up perfectly for Jon Rahm.
But the Phoenix Open is an event where getting birdies on the board is crucial – some 17 players made 20 or more at TPC Scottsdale last year, and so we’ll sacrifice the Spaniard in our line-up build to get a more even salary spread through the ranks.
Catching the eye at Pebble Beach was Jordan Spieth, who struck the ball beautifully from tee-to-green and ranked first for SG: Approach in the two rounds played at the host course.
Iron play is both a barometer for when Spieth is likely to win trophies and a measure of success at TPC Scottsdale, so the omens are good for a player that has surprisingly never won at a layout that seems to suit him perfectly – he does have three top-10s in five trips, however.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 8th
- Birdie Average – 10th
- Scrambling – 29th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 90.0, GPFP: 72.00 Salary: $9,100)
While the PGA TOUR maiden is yet to come up trumps for sports bettors, Scottie Scheffler routinely comes up with the goods for daily fantasy gamers.
He ranks inside the top-30 for Par 3, 4 and 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, which shows the versatility in his game and that relentless ability to find greens in good order.
Time will tell otherwise, but Scheffler looks most likely to prevail in birdie-fests on Bermuda greens, and his wind play ability and comfort on fast-paced greens make him a likely candidate for success at TPC Scottsdale – he was T7 here in 2021.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 13th
- Greens in Regulation – 25th
- SG: Approach – 38th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Russell Henley (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 94.5, GPFP: 104.90 Salary: $8,200)
The archetypal hit-and-miss record at TPC Scottsdale aside, Russell Henley always looks – on paper at least – to be a good fit for this layout.
A formline of 30-MC-15-MC-16 at this track sort of instils confidence, maybe, but it’s the current form in the ledger that most impresses. The disappointment of losing his late lead at the Sony Open now dissipated somewhat, Henley can kick on – and why not, given that’s he now finished T22 or better in his last four starts on the PGA TOUR.
A happy knack of putting well on Bermuda, as well as his recent ball-striking brilliance, marks Henley as a prime candidate at TPC Scottsdale… can he avenge those Waialae demons?
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Birdie Average – 16th
- Total Driving – 22nd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Max Homa (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 73.3, GPFP: 60.13 Salary: $7,600)
After expecting big things from him at the Farmers Insurance Open, we were rather perturbed to see Max Homa miss the cut at Torrey Pines.
But experience in this game tells us not to be too hasty to discard favored sorts, and Homa is a young talent with stacks of upside – his impressive resumé, fortified by wins at the Genesis Invitational and Fortinet Championship since the start of the 2020-21 campaign evidence of that.
With a top-10 to his name at TPC Scottsdale, Homa is another who shapes up well for this test with quality throughout the bag and a penchant for making plenty of birdies.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 21st
- SG: Putting – 61st
- SG: Total – 63rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Denny McCarthy (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 75.4, GPFP: 60.28 Salary: $7,200)
Given that he’s long been an excellent putter of the ball, the waiting game is to see when Denny McCarthy’s ball-striking will take an uptick in form.
And that, unequivocally, has happened of late, with five finishes of T15 or better in his last six PGA TOUR starts – a record that is befitting of even the starriest of star names.
The switch from pure Poa Annua greens to Bermuda certainly won’t inconvenience the 28-year-old, and as somebody perennially on the list of ‘possible first-time PGA TOUR winners, perhaps McCarthy’s time is nigh?
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 5th
- SG: Putting – 16th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 24th
Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Branden Grace (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 53.9, GPFP: 47.99 Salary: $7,100)
We expect Branden Grace to fly under the radar this week, despite two top-10 finishes to his name at TPC Scottsdale.
He hasn’t played since missing the cut at the Sony Open, and so many will look elsewhere at this mid-to-low price point. Grace has also missed three of his last four cuts – not exactly stellar lead-in form.
But hear us out, because the South African is a proven performer in the desert thanks to his daisy-skimming ball ‘flight’, and his quality from the 150-175 yard range explains why tracks with the dimensions of Scottsdale prove so fitting to his eye.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 36th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 37th
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 40th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Nate Lashley (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 59.6, GPFP: 47.65 Salary: $6,700)
A strong record at TPC Scottsdale – 17-3 – should perhaps come as no surprise from the University of Arizona graduate.
He found a timely return to some form at the AT&T Pebble Beach, ranking eleventh for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in a confidence-boosting T26 finish.
Lashley clearly enjoys the greens at Scottsdale, and that – combined with his renewed vigor on approach – should stand him in excellent stead as he returns to a happy hunting ground.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 28th
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 41st
- Birdie Average – 77th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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