Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open  

Cadence Bank Houston Open Fantasy Preview

For a player who has admitted to struggling with nerves when trying to close out PGA TOUR wins, what Russell Henley really needed was one of those weeks where he built up such a substantial lead he simply could not be caught in the final round.

And that’s exactly what he got on Sunday at Mayakoba’s El Camaleon layout, with a sublime opening 54-hole score of 191 effectively condemning the final round to a victory lap of honor.

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Henley’s nerves once again betrayed him on the opening five holes, which he played in +1, but the Georgian steeled himself with three consecutive birdies, and would have been very happy to see nobody emerging from the chasing pack with any velocity.

Afterwards, Henley admitted in the past that he has ‘choked’ at the finishing line on the PGA TOUR and made ‘bad mental mistakes’. But there were no such issues in Mexico, with the former Bulldog ending a five-year wait for a win.

After a stint away from American soil, it’s back the PGA TOUR comes to the United States for the Cadence Bank sponsored Houston Open.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Joel Dahmen was our shining star last week with his T3 finish and boat-load of Fantasy Points. 

He ended the week with all four rounds in the 60s, which we know is a nice pump of points, and he made 23 birdies, plus one epic Eagle hole-out along the way.

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Cadence Bank Houston Open Field

It’s rare that a professional golfer needs motivation to do well, but for Scottie Scheffler the carrot of regaining his world number one status is dangled in Texas this week.

Memorial Park is a golf course that sets up beautifully for the likes of Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau, while Russell Henley is listed amongst the field and hoping to go back-to-back.

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Mackenzie Hughes will join Henley as a recent TOUR winner looking to repeat, while the likes of Justin Rose, Gary Woodland and Francesco Molinari add major-winning prowess into the equation.

Those just starting out on their golfing journey include Cole Hammer and Travis Vick, two exciting prospects with local Texan connections.

This Week’s Course Preview

It was interesting that after falling out of favor with the PGA TOUR, Memorial Park officials called upon Brooks Koepka to offer his input into a redesign of the layout back in 2019.

Koepka, whose modus operandi has been winning majors through the years, gave his input to architect Tom Doak, and the result is one of the stiffest tests on the TOUR at this stage of the year.

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Although there’s some room off the tee, there are still some tree-lines to contend with and a typically howling breeze, and those are contributors to the low fairway count at Memorial Park.

But more important is the action on and around the greens. These Bermuda surfaces are supremely fast, and with tightly-mown shaved edges it only takes approach shots to be slightly errant for them to run away from the green considerably.

At 7,412 yards for its Par 70, Memorial Park is damn long too, although it should be noted that the strange routing means that there’s five Par 3s and three Par 5s, which goes against the grain of the typical Par 70 layout. 

In last year’s edition of the Houston Open, only six of the holes averaged under par across the week. Three of those were the Par 5s, but these are not short stretches by any means – the shortest is 576 yards.

And length is very much the watchword on Memorial Park’s hardest holes, which include a 237-yard Par 3 and a trio of 500+ yard Par 4s.

Weather Forecast for Houston, TX

There generally aren’t too many surprises in the weather for Houston at this time of year, although a staggering change from Friday into the weekend will need to be monitored.

It’s hot and sunny to start the week, with temperatures of 80˚F holding steady into Thursday’s opening round. It’s slightly cooler but still pleasant on Friday, with wind speeds hitting 12mph.

And then something odd happens. The early forecast may be wrong, but the predictions suggest the temperature could plummet to just 57˚F at the weekend! With some rain forecast for Saturday, this will be a change to watch closely.

HOUSTON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Cadence Bank Houston Open

He wouldn’t have known it at the time, of course, but Jason Kokrak waved goodbye to the PGA TOUR by winning his third title in little over a year.

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He was nine shots adrift at the halfway stage in Houston, but delivered a weekend masterclass to power clear of a dawdling field headed by Scheffler.

Kokrak’s 66-65 was the best effort of the weekend by a considerable as Memorial Park showed its teeth, with Scheffler (69-69) and others at the top of the leaderboard like Martin Trainer (74-70) and Kramer Hickock (70-69) unable to reel him in.

Kokrak’s sublime Sunday back nine – four birdies, no bogeys – ultimately saw him win by two shots from Scheffler and Kevin Tway.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Cadence Bank Houston Open this Week

We’re reaching that point of the year where time is ticking on golf in 2022, with the Houston Open and next week’s RSM Classic the only full field events left this year.

So here’s a couple of contests that could help us go out with a bang:

• PGA $20k Dogleg: If you’ve assembled a strong bankroll this year, why not take a run at the $33 Dogleg, which sees just 706 teams vying for the $5k top prize. Finish in the top 34 to walk away with a minimum of $100.

• PGA $100k Drive the Green: Budget conscious players can take a good run at this $5 contest, in which you can draft multiple lineups in your quest for the $25k top prize. There’s ample other opportunities to build your bankroll ahead of 2023, too.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Although the leaderboard last year didn’t suggest as much, for us length really is the key at Memorial Park.

The likes of Hickok, Robert Streb and Adam Long were there or thereabouts in the top 10, but for the most part it was those who could send their drives 300+ yards that were routinely rewarded with an easier task on the second half of holes.

Weirdly, length isn’t much of a factor on the Par 5 holes because eagles are such a rarity here, and so the majority will be hitting third shots in from inside 150 yards.

But it’s defensively, on the 500-yard Par 4 holes, where distance really does help. Imagine trying to make GIR, time after time, with 225-yard approach shots into the wind?

Remember too that Memorial Park has firm and fast greens, which are ideally approached with plenty of loft. Again, that’s an advantage to the longer hitters.

As far as correlating courses are concerned, we’ve picked out Southern Hills (PGA Championship ’22), TPC Craig Ranch (AT&T Byron Nelson), East Lake (TOUR Championship), Innisbrook (Valspar Championship) and Congaree (CJ Cup ’22). Each features long holes, slick greens and favors those able to hit accurate approaches from 200+ yards.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Cadence Bank Houston Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Cadence Bank Houston Open  

Top Tier Pick #1

Sam Burns (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 81.8, GPFP: 74.39 Salary: $10,700)

Having made changes to his putting stroke that yielded an outstanding round of 62 in Mexico on Sunday, Scottie Scheffler looks to be dangerously poised this week.

He made 21 birdies at Memorial Park last year too, with only champion Jason Kokrak mustering more, and so Scheffler is a very dangerous contender this week.

But he’s the chalk play, make no mistake, and there’s enough about Sam Burns’ chances to suggest that he too could prove formidable in the Lonestar State.

Seven is the lucky number for Burns at Memorial Park – he’s finished T7 here in each of his two trips, as he was at the CJ Cup a few weeks ago. Congaree is another layout when he have identified as potentially correlating.

So too is Innisbrook, where Burns has won twice, TPC Craig Ranch and Southern Hills, where he has also performed admirably. Burns has also triumphed in the Charles Schwab Challenge, which was also won by Kokrak, so he’s a player with a ‘type’ of golf course he loves.

Memorial Park is one of them, and that bodes very well for his backers.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 9th
• SG: Putting – 10th
• Scoring Average – 36th

Top Tier Pick #2

Aaron Wise (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 88.0, GPFP: 79.20 Salary: $9,900)

This feels like one of those weeks where a top-heavy approach could pay dividends.

Don’t be alarmed by Aaron Wise’s schlep from Mexico to Texas – he made the same trip 12 months ago, and after banking a top-20 at Mayakoba he would play an outstanding second round of 66 at Memorial Park, albeit before slipping down the leaderboard.

T11 here in 2020, Memorial Park evidently suits Wise’s game, and his form at East Lake and Congaree adds further weight to the argument that he should have a strong week in Houston.

One of the better long-range approach players on the PGA TOUR, the scene is set for another strong showing from Wise this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 14th
• Scoring Average – 26th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 47th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Davis Riley (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 63.4, GPFP: 50.72 Salary: $8,400)

Although he will fly under the radar somewhat, there’s plenty to like about Davis Riley’s chances this week.

He struck the ball nicely in Mexico, and his T29 finish was compounded by a tough week on the slow Paspalum greens – he will surely love a return to slicker Bermuda surfaces in Houston.

Name a correlating course and Riley ticks the box – Southern Hills, TPC Craig Ranch and Innisbrook have all been good to him in recent times, and there’s just something about him in fast conditions, where length is an advantage, that stands Riley up as a genuine contender.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 17th 
• Approaches > 200 yards – 35th
• Greens in Regulation – 46th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Dean Burmester (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 77.9, GPFP: 62.30 Salary: $7,600)

Rounds of 64 and 68 at Mayakoba were a continuation of Dean Burmester’s fine start to the season.

The South African finished solo fourth at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and in all three of his starts this term he has gained strokes on the field off the tee – Burmester is both long and accurate off the peg.

Historically, South Africans have favored Bermuda greens – it’s no surprise that Burmester was +1.42 for SG: Putting at the Country Club of Jackson a few weeks ago, and so we’d anticipate Memorial Park being a happy hunting ground for him in the years ahead.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th 
• SG: Around-the-Green – 23rd
• Scoring Average – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick

Davis Thompson (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 68.2, GPFP: 54.54 Salary: $7,300)

At 23 years old and with Walker and Palmer Cup appearances to his name, Davis Thompson has long been talked up as a potential star of the future.

His first season on the PGA TOUR has started brightly, with a so-so showing at the Sanderson Farms the meat in a sandwich of T9 and T12 at the Fortinet Championship and Shriners respectively.

He shot rounds of 65, two 66s and a 67 in those to frank his obvious promise, and his exceptional ball-striking so far mark the cards of those who favor a sleeper play or two in their lineups. 

Could the Alabaman claim his first TOUR top-10 in Texas?

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 21st
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 32nd
• SG: Approach – 56th

Sleeper Pick for the Cadence Bank Houston Open

Robby Shelton (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 72.8, GPFP: 58.24 Salary: $7,300)

Alabama born and bred, Robby Shelton will be looking forward to returning to the south after the TOUR’S Bermudan and Mexican sojourn.

He has banked three top-25 finishes already this term, and having shown quality in all departments we can rely on Shelton (hopefully) not to come unstuck in the tough tee-to-green assignment that Memorial Park provides.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in Nashville and Knoxville, Shelton is clearly comfortable in this part of the US, and hopefully that will run will be continued this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 35th 
• Birdie Average – 40th
• SG: Putting – 50th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Cadence Bank Houston Open

Jimmy Walker (Odds: 500/1, FPPG: 44.3, GPFP: 35.46 Salary: $6,100)

To balance out a top-heavy draft, we need a bargain basement selection to make the numbers work.

Now, we know what you’re thinking….Jimmy Walker? Is this 2014 all over again?

But Walker, who has been living in Texas for years, has shown signs of life lately. He was excellent from tee-to-green when T25 at the Fortinet Championship, drove the ball well despite missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms and gained strokes on the field on approach – again, albeit missing the cut – at Shriners.

So, at $6,100, we’re drafting a guy with some positive signs who has previously won the Texas Open and also triumphed in a second-tier event in Louisiana. Who knows, Walker could become a key component of our draft this week. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 34th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 49th 
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 91st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”12.24%” bar_text=6 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”14.28%” bar_text=”7 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”30.61%” bar_text=15 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”14.28%” bar_text=”1 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.42″ bar_text=”35 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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