Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am  

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Preview

Although perhaps not as eyebrow-raising as those that had come before, there was still a shock winner at the Farmers Insurance Open last week – the fourth unexpected champion in a row on the PGA TOUR in 2024.

Matthieu Pavon, a TOUR rookie after graduating from the DP World Tour for the first time, had shown his hand with a T7 turn at the Sony Open. But even so, he wasn’t expected to thrive on debut at a Torrey Pines South Course that was baring its teeth.

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But not a bit of it – he became the first Frenchman since before the Second World War to rack up a PGA TOUR win, holding off the challenge of fellow Europeans Stephan Jaeger and Nicolai Hojgaard. Pavon was aided by a clutch birdie from the deep rough on the final hole, his mammoth approach shot from the thick stuff already a contender for shot of the season.

Pavon is the fourth winner on the bounce this year available at sportsbook odds of 100/1 or greater before the start. Will that trend continue at the AT&T Pebble Beach this week, now that the tournament has been granted Signature Event status?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week we had three guys finish T13 including Max Homa, Askay Bhatia, and Hideki Matsuyama.   

In total, we lost four of our twelve picks to the cut line but ended up with some decent finishes out of our two top guys. 

Unfortunately without the long shots Pavon and/or Hojgaard, it would have been really tough to cash in last week. 

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2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field

Newly minted as a premium tournament on the PGA TOUR, many top stars will be heading to Pebble Beach for the first time in a long time – or for the first time all told.

Scottie Scheffler will be one of those making his Pebble Beach bow, while Rory McIlroy returns to the layout for the first time since 2018.

The top 50 of last season’s FedEx Cup standings have all qualified, which means that a stacked field including Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa and Pebble Beach specialist Jordan Spieth will assemble.

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The likes of Pavon, Jaeger, Hojgaard, Tony Finau and Ludvig Aberg will be looking to back up their top-10 finishes at the Farmers with another strong showing further up the Californian coast.

Don’t forget, even though the tournament has been enhanced to Signature Event status, it will retain the pro-am aspect that dates back decades – thankfully, the field is enhanced with decent amateurs, rather than celebrities hacking it about. 

The AT&T Pebble Beach will also feature a no cut format for the first time.

This Week’s Course Preview

There’s a key change at the event in 2024.

Normally, three courses host this tournament on a rotational basis, but Monterey Shore has been dumped from the itinerary – instead, Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill will share the opening 36 holes, before the action will switch to Pebble Beach for the weekend.

It will likely see a drop in the scoring – historically, Monterey Shore has been the easiest of the trio, with Spyglass Hill a fiddly layout to score at and Pebble Beach, a former U.S. Open host, exposed to the weather (more on that later).

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It’s always fun coming back to Pebble Beach, one of the most iconic venues on the PGA TOUR with its dramatic clifftop setting and views across the Pacific Ocean.

That landscape can lead to howling winds, which when combined with what are some of the smallest green sizes on the PGA TOUR, can lead to carnage.

A short 6,972 yards for its Par 71, Pebble Beach Links does feature some wide landing zones off the tee, but tiny Poa Annua greens can make GIR an altogether tricky task – as well as some dramatic changes in elevation.

The other host course, Spyglass Hill, is similarly challenging – albeit in a different way. This is a tree-lined track, providing some shelter from the wind should it blow, but it’s short, tight and claustrophobic at just 6,960 yards for its Par 72. Again, the greens are Poa Annua and on the smaller side of the PGA TOUR average.

Weather Forecast for Pebble Beach, CA

Conditions are not exactly ideal for golf this week in this slice of Californian heaven.

Temperatures look set to barely rise above 57 degrees – that’s not a typo – all week long, with morning tee times barely scraping past 50 degrees.

There’s the threat of heavy rain showers too, which look set to arrive in the area on Wednesday and hang around, on and off, all week long.

The wind, however, looks set to be relatively benign – apart from on Friday, when the breeze could hit 15mph and higher.

MONTEREY WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The quirks of the split-course format meant that Justin Rose sat T24 after his first round at Pebble Beach last year and T11 after his second at Spyglass Hill, but he made hay over the weekend to end a PGA TOUR trophy drought that dated back to 2019.

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A round of 65 thrusted Rose to the top of the leaderboard after 54 holes, with Kurt Kitayama and Peter Malnati one shot back and Keith Mitchell two heading into Sunday.

If the chasing pack thought they were going to get any gifts from Rose, they appeared to be in luck when he bogeyed the first hole, but birdies at two and seven and an eagle at six kept the Brit in the lead.

A serene, bogey-free -3 on the back nine ensured he kept the rest at arm’s length on an unusually low-scoring day at Pebble Beach, ending Rose’s long wait for silverware on this side of the Atlantic.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this Week

The changing of the format of the AT&T Pebble Beach is good news for DFS gamers: there’s less variance with one fewer course on the rotation, and of course the stronger field also helps us to build more satisfying rosters.

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: It’s $5 a turn here if you want to enter multiple lineups, with $25k the top payout and plenty of prizes of $100 or more to be won.
• PGA $700k Pitch & Putt: The big prize of the week can be found in this contest, which will cost you $20 to enter. But there’s a mammoth $200k jackpot to play for, as well as 110 prizes of $250 or more.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

It will be interesting to see what the strategy is at Pebble Beach in particular this week.

Historically, this is a layout where the big stick has been taken out of the players’ hands – even Phil Mickelson averaged just 275 yards off the tee here when he won in 2019. Such is the need to flight your ball down in the fierce wind.

But rain-softened conditions – should the forecast hold – and relatively benign winds should make scoring that little bit easier and perhaps encourage more players to hit driver; allowing those hitting elite approach shots to hold these tiny greens better.

Iron and wedge play has long been the secret to success in this event – winners like Tom Hoge and Daniel Berger, as well as runners-up like Jordan Spieth and Brendon Todd, are evidence of that. The yardage bucket of around 150 yards and inside, where Mickelson has typically thrived over the years, in particularly of interest.

Poa Annua putting is another key weapon in the arsenal – players have commented in the past how idiosyncratic and bumpy these greens are in the ocean breeze, while historically course form has been a useful indicator. 

But with so many big names making rare trips to Pebble Beach, there’s the possibility that all of that will be cast aside.

Squally coastal tracks like Harbour Town, Sea Island, Mayakoba and Waialae can be used as points of reference for those seeking correlations, while the ideal player profile is typically elite iron and wedge hitters with a handy recovery and scrambling game around the small greens when things do go awry. 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 107.9, Salary: $10,000)

It was interesting to note that Xander Schauffele delivered a ball-striking masterclass at the Farmers, and yet it was his putting – a club that he normally thrives with – that ultimately stopped him from improving upon a T9 finish.

As mentioned, the flat stick is not something that haunts Schauffele as it does some other premium tee-to-green merchants on the PGA TOUR, so we can only put his malaise on the greens at Torrey Pines down as an anomaly – he’s normally so, so good on Poa Annua dancefloors.

Nevertheless, Schauffele has started 2024 like a train with three consecutive top-10 finishes – he’ll be looking to put the icing on the cake with a win this week.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Approach – 3rd
• Scoring Average – 5th
• SG: Putting – 6th

Top Tier Pick #2

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 99.6, Salary: $9,100)

There is something of an element of risk to this selection.

Collin Morikawa missed the cut at the Farmers – an event he has typically done very well in, with his putting stats reading like something of a horror story.

Even so, his approach play – the hallmark of Morikawa’s game that makes him absolutely elite – was in place over his 18 measured holes, and given that the Californian has often putted well on Poa Annua, we’re willing to let him off.

He will have happy memories of Pebble Beach – it was here that he made his major debut, and just his second outing as a professional, when making the cut of the 2019 U.S. Open, finishing with a round of 69 in tough conditions for good measure.

Morikawa, at his best, contends at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill – no doubt about it. Let’s hope he brings his A-game.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Approach – 2nd
• Greens in Regulation – 7th
• Scoring Average – 8th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 81.1, Salary: $8,300)

The rollercoaster ride that Hideki Matsuyama took his backers on at the Farmers was not uncommon for an incredibly talented – but mercurial – player.

The Japanese ace was nowhere to be found over the first 54 holes, before serving up an outstanding 67 on Sunday – one of the best rounds of the day – to knock on the door of a top-10 finish.

An otherwise poor putting week seemed to be resolved in that Sunday round, and otherwise Matsuyama’s tee-to-green game was excellent – a handy lead-in to this week’s tournament.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Approach – 12th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 13th 
• Scrambling – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Russell Henley (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 98.7, Salary: $7,800)

One of the most underrated players on the PGA TOUR, 2024 could finally be the year that Russell Henley finally breaks out.

He’s finished inside the top-20 in 14 of his last 18 starts – that’s not a typo, with T2 at the Wyndham Championship and T4 at The Masters the best of those efforts.

But there was a T4 turn at the Sony Open last time out, and any player that has previously won at Waialae and Mayakoba has to be considered a major threat on shorter coastal tracks.

If Henley takes to the sluggish Poa greens this week, he has the game to win the AT&T Pebble Beach – even amongst this exalted company.

Key Stats (2023):

• Scoring Average – 16th
• SG: Approach – 18th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 29th

Low-Tier Pick

Chris Kirk (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 93.9, Salary: $7,500)

Already a winner this year at The Sentry, Chris Kirk had a chance to double-up at the Sony Open before fading during his final round.

But the signs are so positive, and we’re happy to overlook an average performance last time out at The American Express in an event not exactly designed to aid his technical game.

Excellent in his approach work, Kirk is typically rock-solid around the greens too, so even if his irons and wedges are awry he has the ability to get up-and-down for par anyway – how crucial will that skillset prove to be this week?

A mixed bag of a record at Pebble Beach contributes to these sizable 80/1 odds, but make no mistake Kirk is in stellar form right now.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
• SG: Approach – 34th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 36th

Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Nick Taylor (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 86.3, Salary: $7,200)

Many players in the field this week don’t have a bank of historic form at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill to call upon, but that accusation can’t be levelled at Nick Taylor.

He’s played in this tournament every year since 2015, only missing the cut twice and lifting the trophy in 2020 – albeit in a less-stellar field. Nevertheless, the Canadian has served up three other top-20s in that span, including T10 in 2017 and back-to-back top-20s last year and the year before that.

Load up Taylor’s resumé and it becomes clear that Pebble Beach and the correlating Waialae are his favorite tracks, while T5 in the Puerto Rico Open and even a T19 in a high-grade Scottish Open confirm his liking for these conditions. 

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Approach – 36th
• Scoring Average – 40th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 48th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Mark Hubbard (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 69.9, Salary: $6,300)

Slick approach play is the bread and butter of Mark Hubbard’s game, but even he reached new heights at the Farmers – besting the field in the SG: Approach metric.

Crushing irons and wedges has long been a route to success at Pebble Beach, with Hubbard’s form in this event – since 2020, he’s made 3/4 cuts here with a best of T20, indicative of a bargain bucket sleeper pick that can outperform expectations.

He won the Suncoast Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019, while one of Hubbard’s best paydays on the PGA TOUR came at the Elevated Status RBC Heritage – played in similar conditions to Pebble Beach – late last year.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Approach – 14th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 43rd
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 52nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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