Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Farmers Insurance Open

2024 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

These are halcyon days for sleeper pick backers and longshot bettors, with a 300/1 outsider winning The American Express to follow the victories of Chris Kirk (60/1) and Grayson Murray (300/1) so far in 2024!

Of course, spotting these outliers is the tricky part, so if you managed to back Nick Dunlap – a 20-year-old amateur – at The American Express then hats off to you! Although obviously talented (he’s the reigning U.S. Amateur champion after all), as a rule non-professionals don’t win on the PGA TOUR; none has since Phil Mickelson way back in 1991.

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But Dunlap made birdies across the opening three rounds and played a pretty gutsy final 18 too; although nerves and errors crept into his game, understandably, he held it together on the back nine when other, more experienced pros were losing their swing – Sam Burns making double bogeys at 17 and 18 to gift-wrap victory for the youngster.

Ironically, as an amateur he isn’t allowed to claim his $1.7 million prize – no doubt there’ll be plenty of big checks heading Dunlap’s way when he does turn pro.

If it was all about breaking par at The American Express, this week’s Farmers Insurance Open is all about making par. The players will tackle Torrey Pines’ North Course in one of their opening rounds, that’s easier but by no means easy, and the South Course for their other 54 holes.

And what a brute this layout is. Measuring a whopping 7,765 yards for its Par 72, the South Course also inconveniences players with tight fairways, some tough rough and more than 70 bunkers – not to mention smaller-than-TOUR-average Poa Annua greens, which aren’t always the easiest to putt on.

No wonder that four of the last seven editions of this tournament have been won by major champions, while of the other three we can file Max Homa and Marc Leishman under the high-grade category. Even Luke List, the 2022 victor at Torrey Pines, is an elite iron and wedge player that generally putts better on Poa than any other surface.

In short, you need to be backing quality operators this week.

The good news for bettors is that the field is stacked with quality at the top end, which means that there’s plenty of classy sorts available at 50/1 and longer odds. Defending champion Max Homa, who played a round of outstanding quality at the South Course in last year’s final round to catapult to the trophy, leads the way ahead of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala and more besides.

So who makes the grade for our 2024 Farmers Insurance Open sleeper shortlist?

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Hideki Matsuyama – 50/1 – Those that move fast can secure odds of 50/1 from their sportsbook on Hideki Matsuyama, and that’s a number we’re sweet about.

Slow out of the gates at The Sentry, Hideki improved round on round, seeing out his weekend 67-66 to confirm that his game is in a much better place than the very start of 2024.

Our database confirms that Matsuyama is very much at home on Poa Annua greens, and this technical, tee-to-green test will surely bring the best out of his game – two previous top-10s, a T12 and a T16 at Torrey Pines are testament to that.

Harris English 55/1 – With three top-10s at Torrey Pines, Harris English knows these layouts very nicely – and his sure hand with the putter on Poa greens also hands him an edge over plenty in this field.

He decided to sit out the chaotic American Express in a bid to focus on the Farmers, which means he heads to California on the back of impressive T10 and T14 turns on the Hawaiian Swing. 

English drove the ball particularly well at The Sentry and Sony Open, while an improvement in his approach game could see the 34-year-old challenging for silverware this week.

Keith Mitchell – 70/1 – It’s been a wretched few months for Keith Mitchell out on the golf course, but an inspired final 18 holes at The American Express could have changed all that.

He gained +7.24 on the field with his ball-striking, firing a round of 62 to charge up the leaderboard and complete a T9 finish.

It’s only a small sample, and Mitchell doesn’t have a great record at Torrey Pines, but he must have packed his clubs away on Sunday buzzing with confidence – he’s also long and a reliable Poa Annua putter, which will certainly help this week.

Ben Griffin – 80/1 – Continuing his sneaky good run of form at The American Express was Ben Griffin, who has now posted four top-30 finishes in his last five PGA TOUR outings either side of the Christmas break.

The best of those have come in birdie fests at The American Express (T9) and the RSM Classic (T8), although there have been glimpses that Griffin is capable of grinding out a score too – top-25s at the St Jude Championship and Scottish Open, against quality fields and in testing conditions, is evidence of that.

Long enough to thrive at Torrey Pines and in rude health with the flat stick, Griffin is travelling nicely right now.

Alex Smalley – 120/1 – Where efficiency is vital from tee to green, Alex Smalley is rarely far from our thoughts – especially now that he seems to be finding a bit of form.

His ball-striking was in fine fettle at The American Express in his measured rounds on the Stadium Course, and a T21 finish is noteworthy in a tournament well-known for its variance and unpredictability. 

Long off the tee and comfortable on approach in the 200+ yard range, we expect Smalley to keep marching on this week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Farmers Insurance Open here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2024)

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